Prediction markets give France a 52% chance of beating England in regulation time when the teams meet for the World Cup third-place playoff game today. Les Bleus are priced at 67% to claim the bronze medal at England’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Prediction sites are also offering a wide range of props on this game, which kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. We’ve rounded up the most interesting France vs. England props and explored where the value lies.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $15 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
France vs. England, 5 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket props on France vs. England (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction markets expect an entertaining, high-scoring clash between France and England this afternoon. Both teams to score is priced at 69%, and over 2.5 goals is trading at 68% on Kalshi and Polymarket. This game will feature some of the world’s best forwards, including Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane, so player props should prove popular.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 69% | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 32% | 32% |
| Kylian Mbappé to Score | 54% | 55% |
| Ousmane Dembélé to Score | 29% | 28% |
| Harry Kane to Score | 37% | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham to Score | 25% | 26% |
| Michael Olise to Assist | 27% | 33% |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 49% | 51% |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 51% |
Best France vs. England props
Mbappé could win the World Cup Golden Boot if he scores against England today. The France captain is currently level with Argentina’s Lionel Messi on eight goals apiece in the Golden Boot race. If they end the tournament with the same number of goals, FIFA will use assists as a tiebreaker, and Messi has provided more assists than Mbappé. That means Mbappé needs to score in this game, so he should be highly motivated.
He was the top scorer at the 2022 World Cup, and he could become the first player in history to win back-to-back Golden Boots. Mbappé is priced at 54% with Polymarket to find the back of the net today, which could attract trading volume. He drew a blank in France’s 2-0 defeat to Spain in the semifinals on Tuesday, but he still has a goal every 76 minutes at this tournament. Mbappé couldn’t find a way past Spain’s elite defense, but he could have more joy against an England team that capitulated against Argentina on Wednesday.
The Three Lions were in control of their semifinal clash with Argentina, but manager Thomas Tuchel then switched to a five-man defense in a bid to protect their 1-0 lead. That decision allowed Argentina to launch wave after wave of attacks, and late goals from Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez subjected England to a 2-1 defeat. Both teams to score paid off in all four of England’s knockout stage games at this tournament: a 2-1 win against DR Congo, a 3-2 victory over Mexico, a 2-1 win against Norway, and that defeat to Argentina. It’s easy to see why that outcome is priced at 69% today, as England is strong in attack and weak in defense.
Kane has scored six goals at this tournament, leaving him two behind Messi and Mbappé in the Golden Boot race. He was quiet against Argentina, but he’s priced at 37% with Polymarket to score against France. Les Bleus will be without their best defender, as William Saliba went off with a back injury in the semifinals. That could make life easier for Kane today. England midfielder Jude Bellingham has also scored six goals at this summer’s World Cup, and he’s priced at 25% with Polymarket to add to his tally.
France’s attack was blunted in that 2-0 defeat to Spain, but the likes of Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé could still end the tournament on a high note. England’s defenders looked exhausted in the final stages of their defeat to Argentina, so they could struggle to contain France’s quick, dynamic forwards. Les Bleus have had an extra day to rest and recover, which could prove pivotal. Dembélé has scored five times at this tournament, and he’s priced at 28% with Kalshi to add to his haul today.
Olise was largely anonymous against Spain, but he still leads the tournament for assists, and he’s trading at 27% with Polymarket to provide an assist in this match. It will be a big game for Olise, who was born and raised in England, but chose to represent France – his mother’s country. Kalshi is offering 45% on him to either score or assist.
World Cup final takes place tomorrow
Spain will take on Argentina in the World Cup final tomorrow. The game will kick off at 3 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $15 Kalshi bonus (after $15 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
