US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Becerra Surges in California Governor Odds as Ballots Hit Mailboxes

The California governor race has a new leader on prediction markets as ballots go out to residents, and the candidates are teed up for debates this week. Former state Attorney General...

Pat Evans

May 5, 2026

US Elections

Georgia Governor Primary Odds Favor Bottoms, Jackson as Polls Lag

Prediction markets favor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson in Georgia’s governor primaries, even as polls show more uncertainty on the GOP...

Pat Evans

May 5, 2026

US Elections

Markets Buck Texas Senate Polls, Favor Paxton and GOP Edge

The Texas Republican Senate race has done what prediction markets love. It has flipped and then flipped again, turning a conventional incumbency narrative into a true battle for the...

Pat Evans

May 4, 2026

Prediction markets tell different story Michigan senate

US Elections

Markets Favor El-Sayed in Michigan Democratic Senate Primary as Polls Stay Split

The Michigan 2026 Democratic Senate race is a textbook case of prediction markets trading a different narrative than the polls. While public surveys still largely show a tight,...

Pat Evans

May 2, 2026

markets-priced-mills-exit-ahead-of-polls

US Elections

How Prediction Markets Saw the Platner Surge and Mills Exit in Maine Ahead of Polls

Maine Gov. Janet Mills’ suspension of her Senate campaign this week is one of the cleanest demonstrations that prediction markets can see around the corner pretty well. Long before...

Pat Evans

April 30, 2026

US Elections

California Billionaire Tax Nears Ballot as Odds Still Lean ‘No’

A proposed one-time California billionaire tax has reportedly cleared the signature hurdle and is moving toward the November ballot, but prediction markets are still trending toward its...

Pat Evans

April 29, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Market ETFs Arrive, Bringing Election Bets to Retirement Accounts

Prediction markets are about to get their most Wall Street makeover yet as RoundHill prepares to launch election-related event contract ETFs next week. Roundhill plans to launch six...

Pat Evans

April 29, 2026

Traders price 2028 presidential potentials

US Elections

Traders Pour Millions Into 2028 Presidential Race as Democrats Hold Early Edge

Traders are already throwing millions of dollars into the 2028 presidential race winner contracts on prediction markets despite not even knowing the outcomes of the 2026 midterms. The...

Pat Evans

April 27, 2026

Markets predicted Virginia redistricting result

US Elections

Prediction Markets Nailed Narrow Virginia Redistricting Referendum Win

The Virginia redistricting referendum this week did not just redraw the state’s congressional map, it also gave prediction markets a chance to price a high‑stakes, court‑bound...

Pat Evans

April 22, 2026

US Elections

Ohio Senate Special Election Moves to Toss-Up as Markets Price Flip Risk

The 2026 Ohio Senate special election has quietly become one of the best potential swing‑seat flips on the Democratic side of the map, and prediction markets are starting to treat it that...

Pat Evans

April 22, 2026

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