The USA was eliminated from the World Cup after losing 4-1 to Belgium in Seattle on Monday night. Portugal also crashed out following a 1-0 defeat to Spain, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s hopes of lifting the trophy.
The Round of 16 concludes with two games today. Prediction markets give Argentina a 73% chance of beating Egypt in regulation time today. La Albiceleste are trading at 86% with Polymarket and 84% with Kalshi to advance to the quarterfinals at Egypt’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary. The action then shifts to Vancouver, where Switzerland will face Colombia.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Argentina vs. Egypt matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 12 p.m. ET on FOX from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
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Argentina vs. Egypt, 12 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Argentina vs. Egypt (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction markets expect Argentina to get the better of Egypt when the teams clash in Atlanta this afternoon. Traders price La Albiceleste at 72% to win in regulation time, but you can unlock more value by backing them to cover a 1.5-goal spread.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Argentina) | 86% | 84% |
| To Advance (Egypt) | 15% | 16% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Argentina) | 73% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 20% | 20% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Egypt) | 9% | 9% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Argentina -1.5) | 48% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Egypt +1.5) | 53% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 50% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 51% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 42% | 42% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 59% | 59% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Argentina) | 76% | 76% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Egypt) | 20% | 20% |
How Argentina vs. Egypt breaks down
Lionel Messi will bid to inspire Argentina to another victory when he steps onto the pitch at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. He recently turned 39, so some fans feared that he might struggle to make an impact at this tournament. However, Messi has made a mockery of those concerns, scoring seven goals in four games.
He fired in a hat trick in a 3-0 win against Algeria, before scoring both goals in Argentina’s 2-0 victory over Austria. Messi was rested against Jordan on Matchday 3, but he came off the bench in the second half and scored a free kick. He then added to his tally by scoring in a 3-2 win against Cape Verde in the Round of 32. Messi has found the back of the net every 46 minutes at this tournament. Kalshi prices Messi at 61% to score in this game, a price that could prove popular.
Argentina wasn’t at its best in that game against Cape Verde, but the players still managed to get the job done. They’re now unbeaten in 10 World Cup matches, and that experience could be crucial against Egypt.
The Pharaohs have impressed at this tournament. They were unbeaten in the group stage, beating New Zealand and drawing with Iran and Belgium. Egypt then drew 1-1 with Australia in the Round of 32, and it won the subsequent penalty shootout. However, the Pharaohs haven’t faced a team of Argentina’s quality yet, and traders think this could be the end of the road for them.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There’s one more World Cup matchup taking place today. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing this eagerly anticipated game.
Switzerland vs. Colombia, 4 p.m. ET
Traders expect a closer contest between Switzerland and Colombia in the final World Cup Round of 16 game. The draw (tie) is priced at 32%, suggesting that these teams are quite evenly matched.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Switzerland vs. Colombia (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Switzerland) | 40% | 40% |
| To Advance (Colombia) | 61% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Switzerland) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 32% | 32% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Colombia) | 43% | 43% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Switzerland +1.5) | 81% | 80% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Colombia -1.5) | 20% | 21% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 42% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 59% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 51% | 51% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 50% | 50% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Colombia) | 53% | 54% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 8% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Switzerland) | 39% | 39% |
The Swiss delivered a series of impressive performances during the group stage. They could only draw 1-1 with Qatar in their opener, but they dominated that game. Switzerland then beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 before clinching a 2-1 win against Canada on Matchday 3. Goals from Breel Embolo and Dan Ndoye earned Switzerland a 2-0 victory over Algeria in the Round of 32, extending the team’s unbeaten streak to seven games.
However, Switzerland is the underdog for this game. Colombia won its group after beating Uzbekistan and DR Congo and then holding Portugal to a 0-0 draw. Los Cafeteros then beat Ghana 1-0 in the Round of 32, courtesy of Jhon Arias’ strike.
Center-forward Jhon Córdoba limped off with an injury in that game and will miss this matchup with Switzerland, but Colombia still has plenty of firepower. Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez, and Luis Suárez can form a dangerous attacking triumvirate, while Arias also chips in with goals from midfield.
Both teams to score is trading at 51% with Kalshi and Polymarket. That could be another popular option, as Switzerland has found the back of the net in all of its games so far, while the Colombians have enough quality to exploit Switzerland’s defensive frailties.
World Cup quarterfinals begin on Thursday
The World Cup Round of 16 concludes today. The quarterfinals will then get underway on Thursday, when France takes on Morocco. England will then face Norway, before a high-profile clash between Spain and Belgium.
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
