With the first round of the NCAA Tournament starting just after noon Thursday, the deadline is rapidly approaching for Kalshi’s free $1 billion bracket challenge for March Madness.
The company announced the challenge this week, offering users the chance to submit a free bracket in the Kalshi Billion Dollar Bracket with the chance at winning $1 billion. To win the billion, however, users must correctly select all 63 games in the tournament.
Kalshi set a deadline of 1 p.m. or before the first tip-off for submissions. The first game scheduled is TCU-Ohio State at 12:15 p.m. Kalshi is only accepting 10 million entries.
Kalshi claims its running this challenge “to demonstrate a lesson in probability.”
“If every game were a simple 50/50 coin flip, the odds of a perfect bracket would be about 1 in 9.2 quintillion (2⁶³), and even with expert knowledge, the probability remains astronomically small because upsets and unpredictable performances happen every year,” the Kalshi announcement reads. “To put this into perspective, you are more likely to be struck by lightning than create the perfect bracket. Your odds are roughly equivalent to searching for one grain of sand from all of Earth’s beaches and deserts…and getting it right on the first try.”
Even if no user predicts a perfect bracket, Kalshi will still award $1 million to the next best bracket and another $1 million to two nonprofits, iMentor and Starting Five.
Submitting a Kalshi March Madness bracket
Users aged 18 years and older across the US, except New York and Florida, can enter an account.
Once you create your account on Kalshi, you can create a bracket. It is free to enter, and no deposit is necessary.
SIG Parametrics, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is backing the potential $1 billion prize.
Thursday March Madness slate
Among Thursday’s matchups, the game featuring No. 1-overall seed Duke is drawing the most action, with just over $4 million in volume and a 99% edge for the Blue Devils to best No. 16-seed Siena Saints (2:50 p.m. ET tip-off). Fellow No. 1-seed Arizona is also sitting at 99% with $1.2 million in volume in its matchup against Long Island University, scheduled for Friday at 1:35 p.m. ET.
As of Thursday morning, no major upset is trending on Kalshi, and most games are attracting less than $1 million in volume.
The closest in odds would be the game between No. 16-seed BYU against No. 11-seed Texas, as traders have the Cougars edging out the Longhorns, 57%-44% on $154,769 in volume. Another 6-11 matchup Thursday, North Carolina against VCU, is also nearing a toss-up, with UNC chiming in at 58% with over $300,000 trading on the game.
Another close game could be No. 7-seed Saint Mary’s and No. 10-seed Texas A&M, with the Gaels sitting at 60% odds to beat the Aggies.
In NCAAB tournament champion futures odds, with over $91 million in trading volume so far, traders favor Duke at 20%, with Arizona and Michigan coming in at a close second around 18%.
