First song props

Bad Bunny has 28 songs with over one billion Spotify streams each, giving market makers plenty to price. Tití Me Preguntó currently leads on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with BAILE INoLVIDABLE, NUEVAYoL, and LA MUDANZA as the other top contenders. BAILE INoLVIDABLE appeared in the official NFL trailer and initially spiked on the news, but Tití Me Preguntó has since taken over as the favorite.

Halftime openers rarely lead with the artist’s biggest hit because performers save those for later in the set. That dynamic shapes how these markets move, and a song featured in promotional materials or the official trailer often sees significant price swings as traders read into production choices.

Guest appearances

These prop markets cover whether specific artists will perform alongside Bad Bunny. J Balvin has already ruled himself out on January 14, telling TMZ he won’t perform despite their December reconciliation in Mexico City. “I wish my boy kills it and destroys it,” Balvin said. J Balvin still appears on some boards despite explicitly ruling himself out.

Cardi B leads across both platforms. She was at the AFC Championship game celebrating Diggs’ win, and the setup is obvious: “I Like It” remains both artists’ biggest hit, and she’ll already be in the building.

Kalshi also prices Karol G and Jhayco as other likely performers, while Polymarket lists longer shots like Dua Lipa, Travis Scott, and Drake.

Four of the last six halftime shows featured at least two performers. The more performers that appear, the fewer songs Bad Bunny performs solo, which ties this market to total songs over/unders where available.

Other props available

These are available, but the liquidity is so small that they might not amount to much.

• Total songs: Over/unders typically land around 11-12. Kendrick Lamar did 10 last year, Usher and Rihanna both hit 12 with medley-heavy sets, and Dr. Dre/Snoop Dogg in 2022 did seven.
• Headwear: This market covers what Bad Bunny wears during his first song. Promotional materials often hint at the answer.
• Viewership: This market covers whether the broadcast breaks previous records. Kendrick’s 2025 show set the mark at 133.5 million viewers.

If you’re looking beyond the coin toss, prediction markets have a full slate of Super Bowl props. Our live odds pages aggregate pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket so you can compare both sides.

New to prediction markets? Kalshi is offering $10 free with code DEFI. We also have a free squares generator if you’re hosting a Super Bowl party.

Kalshi and Polymarket resolution criteria

Before trading any halftime market, read how it resolves. Both Kalshi and Polymarket operate similarly, but resolution is settled differently.

Contracts trade between $0.01 and $1.00, and the price equals implied probability. A contract at $0.45 implies a 45% chance of that artist performing or making an appearance.

You buy Yes if you think Cardi B will perform, and No if you don’t she will sing. Winning contracts pay $1.00 per contract, and you can sell before settlement if the market moves your way.

Markets close before the performance starts and settle based on what actually happens.

Kalshi’s first song market is specific: a song counts as performed if it’s “at least reasonably begun.” Medleys count each song in order of appearance. Interludes, instrumentals, and sound checks don’t qualify. The market is mutually exclusive, so only one song can win.

Polymarket’s performer markets resolve based on media confirmation. Sources include Billboard, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, official broadcaster coverage, and the performers’ own social media accounts. If an artist appears but no credible source confirms it, the market may not resolve as expected.

Both platforms use footage from the halftime show as the primary resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting. If the event is cancelled or delayed past a specified date, markets resolve to No.

These details matter. A brief instrumental intro before the first song won’t count on Kalshi, and a surprise performer who doesn’t get media coverage might not trigger a Yes on Polymarket.