Kalshi runs crypto markets that settle every 15 minutes on whether a price finishes up or down, and Polymarket runs its own version of the same windows. The terminals below track both side by side: the live price against the target, what each platform thinks the odds are, and what it costs to take either side.
Compare 15-minute crypto prediction markets in real-time
| Market | To beatKalshi's strike for this window. Polymarket asks whether the price finishes above where the window opened, so its threshold can differ. | NowLive reference price from Hyperliquid. Kalshi settles on a CF Benchmarks index and Polymarket on Chainlink, so the settled price can differ slightly from this. | Kalshi | Polymarket | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCBitcoin | $75,624 | $75,784 | 96% | 98% | $1,792K | |
SOLSolana | $97.45 | $97.74 | 96% | 97% | $40K | |
ETHEthereum | $2,391 | $2,398 | 99% | 100% | $38K | |
XRPXRP | $1.29 | $1.29 | 84% | 79% | $33K | |
HYPEHyperliquid | $77.76 | $77.90 | 96% | — | $13K | |
ZECZcash | $1,286 | $1,303 | 100% | — | $12K | |
DOGEDogecoin | $0.0799 | $0.0801 | 94% | 96% | $9K | |
BNBBNB | $718.68 | $720.09 | 98% | — | $5K | |
NEARNEAR | $2.57 | $2.58 | 97% | — | $3K |
Current trading volume on all crypto markets
Track Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies as traders predict where crypto prices will finish over the next fifteen minutes. DeFi Rate compares live markets from Kalshi and Polymarket Global, showing the target price, the current price, platform odds, trading volume and the exact time remaining until settlement.
Unlike traditional crypto trading, where investors buy and sell the underlying asset, 15-minute prediction markets revolve around a single question:
Will Bitcoin finish above or below a specific price when the market closes?
Every fifteen minutes, a new set of contracts opens, creating market opportunities to trade on BTC, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and other cryptocurrencies.
How to use our crypto tracker
Our crypto price tracker compares the same market across Kalshi and Polymarket Global, allowing you to see how traders on each platform are pricing the next fifteen minutes.
- Target price: The price the cryptocurrency must finish above when the market settles. In the example above, Bitcoin needs to close above $64,260 for the “up” side to win.
- Live price: The current market price of the cryptocurrency. This updates in real time and shows whether the asset is currently above or below the target.
- Kalshi’s odds: Kalshi’s estimate of the probability that the cryptocurrency will finish above the target price. 76% means the market believes there is a 76% chance the contract resolves in favor of the “up” side.
- Polymarket Global’s odds: This is Polymarket Global’s estimate of the same outcome. Because Kalshi and Polymarket Global operate separate order books, the two platforms can assign very different probabilities to the exact same question. Also note, Kalshi is US only, while Polymarket is non-US.
- Trading volume: The total amount traded in that market. Higher volume often means more traders are participating and prices may react more quickly to new information.
- Time remaining: The countdown until the market closes and the contract settles. Once the timer reaches zero, the official settlement price determines the outcome.
Note: Crypto markets are currently sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket Global. Polymarket US does not currently offer cryptocurrency prediction markets.
Example of how the markets work
Each contract asks a simple question.
For example:
Will Bitcoin finish above $64,260 at 8:15 PM ET?
If Bitcoin settles above that level, the “up” side wins. If it settles below, the “down” side wins.
Unlike spot trading, traders are not buying Bitcoin itself. Instead, they are taking a position on the outcome of a single event with a fixed expiration time.
Because new contracts open every fifteen minutes, there are:
- 96 Bitcoin markets every day
- 672 Bitcoin markets every week
- More than 35,000 Bitcoin markets every year
Every market stands on its own. Winning one contract has no impact on the next market that opens fifteen minutes later.
Why can BTC be above the target price and still lose?
One of the biggest misconceptions about prediction markets is that the current price guarantees the result.
Imagine Bitcoin is trading at $64,354, while the target price is $64,260 and there are eight minutes remaining until settlement.
Although Bitcoin is currently above the target, traders still need to decide where the price will finish when the market closes. If Kalshi shows a 76% probability, that means traders believe there is still a 24% chance Bitcoin could fall below the target before expiration.
The closer the market gets to settlement, the more sensitive those probabilities become. A sudden sell-off, a large liquidation or breaking news can change the odds in seconds.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree?
The two platforms are asking the same question, but they don’t always agree on the answer.
At any given moment, Kalshi may show Bitcoin with a 76% chance of finishing above the target price, while Polymarket Global shows 49%.
Those differences exist because each platform has:
- Different traders
- Different order books
- Different levels of liquidity
- Different fee structures
- Different settlement methodologies
Large gaps between the two platforms can narrow quickly as traders react to price movements and new information.
How settlement works
Crypto contracts do not settle based on the number you happen to see on Coinbase or Binance in the final seconds.
Kalshi settles its 15-minute markets using the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI), which aggregates prices from multiple exchanges rather than relying on a single source.
That means there may be moments when one exchange shows BTC above the target price while the official benchmark settles below it.
Understanding how settlement works is important because the benchmark price, not the price on an individual exchange, determines the final outcome of the contract.
What moves crypto prices in fifteen minutes?
Short-term crypto markets can react to almost anything, but a few events consistently drive volatility:
- Federal Reserve decisions and economic reports
- Exchange outages and technical issues
- ETF announcements
- Large liquidations
- Sudden spikes in trading volume
- Crypto news
- Sharp moves in equity markets
Because these contracts settle every fifteen minutes, even small price swings can dramatically change the odds.
Benefits of DeFi Rate’s tracker?
Instead of switching between multiple platforms, DeFi Rate lets you compare crypto prediction markets in one place.
Use the tracker to:
- Compare Kalshi and Polymarket Global odds side by side
- Find the biggest disagreements between traders
- See which cryptocurrencies are attracting the most volume
- Track markets that are about to settle
- Follow short-term sentiment across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and dozens of other cryptocurrencies