Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 23 minutes ago · 1:23 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $65,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ( — aggregated odds). The $65,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $81.2K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $7.1K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $69.4K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

2.70%

$110,000 → View arbs

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$65,000 +49.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$81.2K

Momentum Leader

+49.0%

$65,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +49.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +32.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$55,000

Vol $7.6K Spread —

Agg 53.5%

↑ +19.0%

P 53.5%

Polymarket 53.5%

Vol $7.6K 53–54¢

$100,000

Vol $9.4K Spread 5.0%

Agg 44.3%

↓ -40.2%

F 46.0%

K 44.5%

P 41.0%

ForecastEx 46.0%

Vol $2.6K 46¢

Kalshi 44.5%

Vol $5.0K 44–45¢

Polymarket 41.0%

Vol $1.7K 40–42¢

$45,000

Vol $29.4K Spread —

Agg 33.5%

↑ +12.5%

P 33.5%

Polymarket 33.5%

Vol $29.4K 33–34¢

$110,000

Vol $1.9K Spread 4.0%

Agg 27.5%

↓ -36.5%

K 30.5%

F 30.0%

P 26.5%

Kalshi 30.5%

Vol $326 30–31¢

ForecastEx 30.0%

Vol $153 30¢

Polymarket 26.5%

Vol $1.4K 26–27¢

$120,000

Vol $2.7K Spread 5.5%

Agg 21.1%

↓ -26.9%

F 25.0%

K 22.5%

P 19.5%

ForecastEx 25.0%

Vol $1 25¢

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $1.4K 22–23¢

Polymarket 19.5%

Vol $1.2K 19–20¢

$35,000

Vol $1.8K Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↑ +5.0%

P 18.5%

Polymarket 18.5%

Vol $1.8K 18–19¢

$130,000

Vol $2.1K Spread 4.5%

Agg 17.4%

↓ -21.1%

F 19.0%

K 16.5%

P 14.5%

ForecastEx 19.0%

Vol $1.3K 19¢

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $56 16–17¢

Polymarket 14.5%

Vol $736 14–15¢

$140,000

Vol $437 Spread 1.0%

Agg 12.0%

↓ -16.0%

K 12.5%

F 12.0%

P 11.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $195 12–13¢

ForecastEx 12.0%

Vol $18 12¢

Polymarket 11.5%

Vol $224 11–12¢

$150,000

Vol $134 Spread 3.0%

Agg 11.0%

↓ -11.0%

K 11.5%

F 9.0%

P 8.5%

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $113 11–12¢

ForecastEx 9.0%

Vol $0 9¢

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $21 8–9¢

$25,000

Vol $440 Spread —

Agg 10.0%

↑ +2.5%

P 10.0%

Polymarket 10.0%

Vol $440 9–11¢

$160,000

Vol $60 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↓ -10.5%

P 7.0%

Polymarket 7.0%

Vol $60 6–8¢

$170,000

Vol $14 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -6.5%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $14 6–7¢

$180,000

Vol $1.6K Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -4.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $1.6K 6–7¢

$15,000

Vol $5.0K Spread —

Agg 5.4%

↑ +0.4%

P 5.4%

Polymarket 5.4%

Vol $5.0K 5.3–5.5¢

$200,000

Vol $8.0K Spread 2.2%

Agg 4.9%

↓ -3.6%

F 7.0%

K 5.5%

P 4.9%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $17 7¢

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $9 5–6¢

Polymarket 4.9%

Vol $7.9K 4.8–4.9¢

$190,000

Vol $20 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↓ -4.5%

P 4.5%

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $20 4–5¢

$250,000

Vol $10.2K Spread —

Agg 3.8%

↓ -0.9%

P 3.8%

Polymarket 3.8%

Vol $10.2K 3.7–3.8¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
60 $65,000	100.0% ↑ +49.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% ↑ +32.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
50 $55,000	53.5% ↑ +19.0%	—	$7.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 53.5% 53–54¢ Vol $7.6K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	44.3% ↓ -40.2%	5.0%	$9.4K	Kalshi 44.5% 44–45¢ Vol $5.0K	Polymarket 41.0% 40–42¢ Vol $1.7K	ForecastEx 46.0% 46¢ Vol $2.6K
40 $45,000	33.5% ↑ +12.5%	—	$29.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $29.4K	ForecastEx — —
10 $110,000	27.5% ↓ -36.5%	4.0%	$1.9K	Kalshi 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $326	Polymarket 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $1.4K	ForecastEx 30.0% 30¢ Vol $153
10 $120,000	21.1% ↓ -26.9%	5.5%	$2.7K	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $1.2K	ForecastEx 25.0% 25¢ Vol $1
30 $35,000	18.5% ↑ +5.0%	—	$1.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $1.8K	ForecastEx — —
10 $130,000	17.4% ↓ -21.1%	4.5%	$2.1K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $56	Polymarket 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $736	ForecastEx 19.0% 19¢ Vol $1.3K
10 $140,000	12.0% ↓ -16.0%	1.0%	$437	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $195	Polymarket 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $224	ForecastEx 12.0% 12¢ Vol $18
10 $150,000	11.0% ↓ -11.0%	3.0%	$134	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $113	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $21	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $0
20 $25,000	10.0% ↑ +2.5%	—	$440	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 10.0% 9–11¢ Vol $440	ForecastEx — —
10 $160,000	7.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$60	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.0% 6–8¢ Vol $60	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	6.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$14	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $14	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	6.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$1.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $1.6K	ForecastEx — —
10 $15,000	5.4% ↑ +0.4%	—	$5.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 5.4% 5.3–5.5¢ Vol $5.0K	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	4.9% ↓ -3.6%	2.2%	$8.0K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 4.9% 4.8–4.9¢ Vol $7.9K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $17
10 $190,000	4.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$20	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $20	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	3.8% ↓ -0.9%	—	$10.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.8% 3.7–3.8¢ Vol $10.2K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 27¢	Sell @ K 30¢	+3.00%	+2.70%	Yes
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 11¢	+2.00%	+1.89%	Yes
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 20¢	Sell @ K 22¢	+2.00%	+1.78%	Yes
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 42¢	Sell @ K 44¢	+2.00%	+1.56%	Yes
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 15¢	Sell @ K 16¢	+1.00%	+0.84%	No
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.9¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+0.00%	-0.12%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
60 $65,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.5%	+81.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.5%	+81.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 19.5%	+80.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 19.5%	+80.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 33.5%	+66.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 33.5%	+66.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 41.0%	+59.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 41.0%	+59.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 53.5%	+46.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 53.5%	+46.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 53.5%	B 11.5%	+42.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 44.5%	B 5.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 53.5%	B 14.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 53.5%	B 18.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 53.5%	B 19.5%	+34.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 44.5%	B 11.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 44.5%	B 12.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 41.0%	B 11.5%	+29.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Kalshi	A 44.5%	B 16.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 53.5%	B 26.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 41.0%	B 14.5%	+26.50%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 30.5%	B 5.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 41.0%	B 18.5%	+22.50%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 33.5%	B 11.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.