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Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 39 minutes ago · 8:41 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $75,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ({{agg.rank1.odds_american}} aggregated odds). The $75,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $164.6K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $1.4K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $160.9K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

2.13%

$200,000 → View arbs

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$75,000 +32.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$164.6K

Momentum Leader

+46.5%

$65,000 YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +32.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread 5.0%

Agg 97.5%

↑ +46.5%

P 100.0%

F 95.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

ForecastEx 95.0%

Vol $0 95¢

$55,000

Vol $4.9K Spread —

Agg 69.5%

↑ +35.0%

P 69.5%

Polymarket 69.5%

Vol $4.9K 69–70¢

$45,000

Vol $5.3K Spread —

Agg 45.5%

↑ +24.5%

P 45.5%

Polymarket 45.5%

Vol $5.3K 45–46¢

$100,000

Vol $3.3K Spread 3.5%

Agg 38.5%

↓ -46.0%

P 39.5%

K 37.0%

F 36.0%

Polymarket 39.5%

Vol $2.1K 39–40¢

Kalshi 37.0%

Vol $741 36–38¢

ForecastEx 36.0%

Vol $468 36¢

$35,000

Vol $920 Spread —

Agg 25.5%

↑ +12.0%

P 25.5%

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $920 25–26¢

$110,000

Vol $2.1K Spread 5.5%

Agg 25.3%

↓ -38.7%

K 27.5%

P 25.5%

F 22.0%

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $326 26–29¢

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $1.5K 25–26¢

ForecastEx 22.0%

Vol $290 22¢

$120,000

Vol $510 Spread 5.5%

Agg 24.2%

↓ -23.8%

F 27.0%

K 22.5%

P 21.5%

ForecastEx 27.0%

Vol $226 27¢

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $119 21–24¢

Polymarket 21.5%

Vol $166 21–22¢

$25,000

Vol $449 Spread —

Agg 14.5%

↑ +7.0%

P 14.5%

Polymarket 14.5%

Vol $449 13–16¢

$130,000

Vol $528 Spread 7.5%

Agg 11.6%

↓ -26.9%

K 17.5%

P 13.5%

F 10.0%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $94 16–19¢

Polymarket 13.5%

Vol $45 13–14¢

ForecastEx 10.0%

Vol $390 10¢

$140,000

Vol $20.0K Spread 5.0%

Agg 10.0%

↓ -18.0%

F 15.0%

K 13.0%

P 10.0%

ForecastEx 15.0%

Vol $135 15¢

Kalshi 13.0%

Vol $36 12–14¢

Polymarket 10.0%

Vol $19.8K 9–11¢

$150,000

Vol $1.5K Spread 4.5%

Agg 9.0%

↓ -13.0%

F 13.0%

K 11.0%

P 8.5%

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $130 13¢

Kalshi 11.0%

Vol $52 10–12¢

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $1.4K 8–9¢

$160,000

Vol $1.8K Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↓ -10.0%

P 7.5%

Polymarket 7.5%

Vol $1.8K 7–8¢

$170,000

Vol $40 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↓ -5.5%

P 7.5%

Polymarket 7.5%

Vol $40 7–8¢

$15,000

Vol $91.4K Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↑ +2.0%

P 7.0%

Polymarket 7.0%

Vol $91.4K 6.9–7¢

$180,000

Vol $77 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -4.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $77 6–7¢

$190,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -2.5%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $0 6–7¢

$200,000

Vol $10.0K Spread 2.7%

Agg 4.8%

↓ -3.7%

K 7.5%

F 6.0%

P 4.8%

Kalshi 7.5%

Vol $21 7–8¢

ForecastEx 6.0%

Vol $1 6¢

Polymarket 4.8%

Vol $10.0K 4.7–4.8¢

$250,000

Vol $21.0K Spread —

Agg 4.4%

↓ -0.3%

P 4.4%

Polymarket 4.4%

Vol $21.0K 4.3–4.4¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
70 $75,000	100.0% ↑ +32.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
60 $65,000	97.5% ↑ +46.5%	5.0%	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 95.0% 95¢ Vol $0
50 $55,000	69.5% ↑ +35.0%	—	$4.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 69.5% 69–70¢ Vol $4.9K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	45.5% ↑ +24.5%	—	$5.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 45.5% 45–46¢ Vol $5.3K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	38.5% ↓ -46.0%	3.5%	$3.3K	Kalshi 37.0% 36–38¢ Vol $741	Polymarket 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $2.1K	ForecastEx 36.0% 36¢ Vol $468
30 $35,000	25.5% ↑ +12.0%	—	$920	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $920	ForecastEx — —
10 $110,000	25.3% ↓ -38.7%	5.5%	$2.1K	Kalshi 27.5% 26–29¢ Vol $326	Polymarket 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $1.5K	ForecastEx 22.0% 22¢ Vol $290
10 $120,000	24.2% ↓ -23.8%	5.5%	$510	Kalshi 22.5% 21–24¢ Vol $119	Polymarket 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $166	ForecastEx 27.0% 27¢ Vol $226
20 $25,000	14.5% ↑ +7.0%	—	$449	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 14.5% 13–16¢ Vol $449	ForecastEx — —
10 $130,000	11.6% ↓ -26.9%	7.5%	$528	Kalshi 17.5% 16–19¢ Vol $94	Polymarket 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $45	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $390
10 $140,000	10.0% ↓ -18.0%	5.0%	$20.0K	Kalshi 13.0% 12–14¢ Vol $36	Polymarket 10.0% 9–11¢ Vol $19.8K	ForecastEx 15.0% 15¢ Vol $135
10 $150,000	9.0% ↓ -13.0%	4.5%	$1.5K	Kalshi 11.0% 10–12¢ Vol $52	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $1.4K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $130
10 $160,000	7.5% ↓ -10.0%	—	$1.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $1.8K	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	7.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$40	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $40	ForecastEx — —
10 $15,000	7.0% ↑ +2.0%	—	$91.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 7.0% 6.9–7¢ Vol $91.4K	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	6.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$77	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $77	ForecastEx — —
10 $190,000	6.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	4.8% ↓ -3.7%	2.7%	$10.0K	Kalshi 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 4.8% 4.7–4.8¢ Vol $10.0K	ForecastEx 6.0% 6¢ Vol $1
20 $250,000	4.4% ↓ -0.3%	—	$21.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.4% 4.3–4.4¢ Vol $21.0K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.8¢	Sell @ K 7¢	+2.20%	+2.13%	Yes
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 14¢	Sell @ K 16¢	+2.00%	+1.84%	Yes
10 $100,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 38¢	Sell @ P 39¢	+1.00%	+0.62%	No
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+1.00%	+0.90%	No
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 11¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+1.00%	+0.88%	No
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 26¢	Sell @ K 26¢	+0.00%	-0.26%	No
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 22¢	Sell @ K 21¢	-1.00%	-1.21%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 14.5%	+85.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 39.5%	+60.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 39.5%	+60.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 13.5%	+56.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 14.5%	+55.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 45.5%	+54.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 45.5%	+54.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 21.5%	+48.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 25.5%	+44.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 25.5%	+44.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 13.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 14.5%	+31.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 69.5%	+30.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 69.5%	+30.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 69.5%	B 39.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 37.0%	B 7.5%	+29.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 37.0%	B 11.0%	+26.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 39.5%	B 13.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 39.5%	B 14.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 45.5%	B 21.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 37.0%	B 13.0%	+24.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.