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Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 12 minutes ago · 4:41 AM PST

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $100,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 78.4% implied probability (-363 aggregated odds). The $100,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $351.5K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $10.5K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $341.0K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing.We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

2.54%

$120,000 → View arbs

Consensus Leader

78.4%

$100,000

24H Volume (Share)

$374.2K

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

$100,000

Vol $23.0K Spread 3.5%

Agg 78.4%

↓ -0.9%

P 80.5%

K 77.5%

F 77.0%

Polymarket 80.5%

Vol $8.5K 80–81¢

Kalshi 77.5%

Vol $4.6K 77–78¢

ForecastEx 77.0%

Vol $9.9K 77¢

$75,000

Vol $94.8K Spread —

Agg 69.5%

↑ +2.5%

P 69.5%

Polymarket 69.5%

Vol $94.8K 69–70¢

$110,000

Vol $23.9K Spread 9.5%

Agg 55.2%

↓ -5.3%

F 63.0%

P 55.0%

K 53.5%

ForecastEx 63.0%

Vol $754 63¢

Polymarket 55.0%

Vol $22.0K 54–56¢

Kalshi 53.5%

Vol $1.1K 53–54¢

$65,000

Vol $34.5K Spread 2.5%

Agg 54.5%

↑ +2.0%

P 54.5%

F 52.0%

Polymarket 54.5%

Vol $34.2K 53–56¢

ForecastEx 52.0%

Vol $292 52¢

$120,000

Vol $16.0K Spread 4.5%

Agg 43.1%

↓ -3.6%

K 46.5%

F 44.0%

P 42.0%

Kalshi 46.5%

Vol $3.8K 46–47¢

ForecastEx 44.0%

Vol $564 44¢

Polymarket 42.0%

Vol $11.7K 41–43¢

$55,000

Vol $24.8K Spread —

Agg 37.5%

— +0.0%

P 37.5%

Polymarket 37.5%

Vol $24.8K 37–38¢

$130,000

Vol $26.0K Spread 7.5%

Agg 29.7%

↓ -5.5%

F 37.0%

K 34.5%

P 29.5%

ForecastEx 37.0%

Vol $559 37¢

Kalshi 34.5%

Vol $126 34–35¢

Polymarket 29.5%

Vol $25.3K 28–31¢

$140,000

Vol $8.8K Spread 8.5%

Agg 25.8%

↓ -0.2%

F 33.0%

P 25.0%

K 24.5%

ForecastEx 33.0%

Vol $941 33¢

Polymarket 25.0%

Vol $7.4K 24–26¢

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $417 24–25¢

$45,000

Vol $12.3K Spread —

Agg 24.5%

↑ +1.0%

P 24.5%

Polymarket 24.5%

Vol $12.3K 24–25¢

$150,000

Vol $15.1K Spread 2.0%

Agg 20.0%

— +0.0%

F 22.0%

K 20.5%

P 20.0%

ForecastEx 22.0%

Vol $263 22¢

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $162 20–21¢

Polymarket 20.0%

Vol $14.7K 19–21¢

$160,000

Vol $22.7K Spread —

Agg 16.0%

↑ +1.0%

P 16.0%

Polymarket 16.0%

Vol $22.7K 15–17¢

$35,000

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↑ +1.0%

P 15.5%

Polymarket 15.5%

Vol $1.0K 15–16¢

$170,000

Vol $8.0K Spread —

Agg 12.0%

↑ +0.5%

P 12.0%

Polymarket 12.0%

Vol $8.0K 11–13¢

$180,000

Vol $4.6K Spread —

Agg 10.5%

— +0.0%

P 10.5%

Polymarket 10.5%

Vol $4.6K 10–11¢

$190,000

Vol $1.3K Spread —

Agg 9.5%

— +0.0%

P 9.5%

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $1.3K 9–10¢

$25,000

Vol $181 Spread —

Agg 9.5%

— +0.0%

P 9.5%

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $181 9–10¢

$200,000

Vol $7.6K Spread 4.0%

Agg 8.6%

↓ -2.3%

K 12.5%

F 11.0%

P 8.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $234 12–13¢

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $7.3K 8–9¢

$250,000

Vol $16.8K Spread —

Agg 5.1%

↓ -0.3%

P 5.1%

Polymarket 5.1%

Vol $16.8K 5–5.1¢

$15,000

Vol $23.4K Spread —

Agg 4.4%

↑ +0.3%

P 4.4%

Polymarket 4.4%

Vol $23.4K 4.3–4.5¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
10 $100,000	78.4% ↓ -0.9%	3.5%	$23.0K	Kalshi 77.5% 77–78¢ Vol $4.6K	Polymarket 80.5% 80–81¢ Vol $8.5K	ForecastEx 77.0% 77¢ Vol $9.9K
70 $75,000	69.5% ↑ +2.5%	—	$94.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 69.5% 69–70¢ Vol $94.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $110,000	55.2% ↓ -5.3%	9.5%	$23.9K	Kalshi 53.5% 53–54¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket 55.0% 54–56¢ Vol $22.0K	ForecastEx 63.0% 63¢ Vol $754
60 $65,000	54.5% ↑ +2.0%	2.5%	$34.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 54.5% 53–56¢ Vol $34.2K	ForecastEx 52.0% 52¢ Vol $292
10 $120,000	43.1% ↓ -3.6%	4.5%	$16.0K	Kalshi 46.5% 46–47¢ Vol $3.8K	Polymarket 42.0% 41–43¢ Vol $11.7K	ForecastEx 44.0% 44¢ Vol $564
50 $55,000	37.5% — +0.0%	—	$24.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 37.5% 37–38¢ Vol $24.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $130,000	29.7% ↓ -5.5%	7.5%	$26.0K	Kalshi 34.5% 34–35¢ Vol $126	Polymarket 29.5% 28–31¢ Vol $25.3K	ForecastEx 37.0% 37¢ Vol $559
10 $140,000	25.8% ↓ -0.2%	8.5%	$8.8K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $417	Polymarket 25.0% 24–26¢ Vol $7.4K	ForecastEx 33.0% 33¢ Vol $941
40 $45,000	24.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$12.3K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $12.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $150,000	20.0% — +0.0%	2.0%	$15.1K	Kalshi 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $162	Polymarket 20.0% 19–21¢ Vol $14.7K	ForecastEx 22.0% 22¢ Vol $263
10 $160,000	16.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$22.7K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 16.0% 15–17¢ Vol $22.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
30 $35,000	15.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$1.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $1.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $170,000	12.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$8.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 12.0% 11–13¢ Vol $8.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $180,000	10.5% — +0.0%	—	$4.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $4.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $190,000	9.5% — +0.0%	—	$1.3K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $1.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
20 $25,000	9.5% — +0.0%	—	$181	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $181	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
20 $200,000	8.6% ↓ -2.3%	4.0%	$7.6K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $234	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $7.3K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
20 $250,000	5.1% ↓ -0.3%	—	$16.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 5.1% 5–5.1¢ Vol $16.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $15,000	4.4% ↑ +0.3%	—	$23.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 4.4% 4.3–4.5¢ Vol $23.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 43¢	Sell @ K 46¢	+3.00%	+2.54%	Yes
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 31¢	Sell @ K 34¢	+3.00%	+2.66%	Yes
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+3.00%	+2.88%	Yes
10 $100,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 78¢	Sell @ P 80¢	+2.00%	+1.22%	No
10 $110,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 54¢	Sell @ P 54¢	+0.00%	-0.54%	No
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 21¢	Sell @ K 20¢	-1.00%	-1.20%	No
10 $140,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 25¢	Sell @ P 24¢	-1.00%	-1.25%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 77.50%	B 12.50%	+65.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 20.00%	+60.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 77.50%	B 20.50%	+57.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 24.50%	+56.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 25.00%	+55.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 77.50%	B 24.50%	+53.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 29.50%	+51.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $150,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 20.00%	+49.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 24.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 25.00%	+44.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Kalshi	A 77.50%	B 34.50%	+43.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 37.50%	+43.00%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 53.50%	B 12.50%	+41.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 29.50%	+40.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 42.00%	+38.50%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	10 $150,000	Polymarket	A 55.00%	B 20.00%	+35.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $150,000	Polymarket	A 54.50%	B 20.00%	+34.50%	Buy spread
10 $120,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 12.50%	+34.00%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 53.50%	B 20.50%	+33.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 37.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $120,000	Kalshi	A 77.50%	B 46.50%	+31.00%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 55.00%	B 24.50%	+30.50%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 55.00%	B 25.00%	+30.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 54.50%	B 24.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 54.50%	B 25.00%	+29.50%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 53.50%	B 24.50%	+29.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 69.50%	B 42.00%	+27.50%	Buy spread
10 $120,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 46.50%	B 20.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	60 $65,000	Polymarket	A 80.50%	B 54.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread
10 $110,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 55.00%	B 29.50%	+25.50%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.