Prediction markets give England a 36% chance of beating Argentina in regulation time when the teams meet in Atlanta for a World Cup semifinal showdown this afternoon. The Three Lions are priced at 54% to advance to the final at Spain’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Prediction sites are also offering a long list of props on the big game, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. We’ve highlighted the most interesting England vs. Argentina props and explored where the value lies.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $15 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
England vs. Argentina, 3 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket props on England vs. Argentina (*trading available in 49 states)
England and Argentina will resume their fierce rivalry when they clash in the World Cup semifinals this afternoon. Prediction markets make England the narrow favorite, but the teams look evenly matched, so props may offer better value than the main game lines.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 52% | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 49% | 47% |
| Harry Kane to Score | 38% | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham to Score | 24% | 26% |
| Lionel Messi to Score | 38% | 41% |
| Julián Álvarez to Score | 21% | 22% |
| Lionel Messi to Assist | 24% | 24% |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 43% | 58% |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 58% | 43% |
Best England vs. Argentina props
Argentina’s defense has looked vulnerable during the knockout stage of this tournament. La Albiceleste needed an 111th-minute own goal to scrape a 3-2 extra-time win against Cape Verde in the Round of 32. That helped them avoid the biggest upset in World Cup history, but it didn’t jolt the players out of their torpor. They were off the pace again in the Round of 16, and they were losing 2-0 to Egypt with just 11 minutes left on the clock.
Lionel Messi then took over, providing an assist and slamming in a powerful equalizer, before Enzo Fernández made it 3-2 with a last-gasp winner. However, the Egyptians were furious after having a goal ruled out and a penalty claim dismissed. Manager Hossam Hassan said his side had been “treated unfairly” and “suffered injustice.”
Argentina’s quarterfinal clash with Switzerland was then delicately poised at 1-1 when Swiss striker Breel Embolo was sent off. That game also went to extra time, and late goals from Julián Álvarez earned Argentina a 3-1 win, but it certainly wasn’t a vintage performance from La Albiceleste. It means that both teams to score has now paid off in Argentina’s last four games, as Lionel Scaloni’s men also beat Jordan 3-1 in their final group stage match.
Both teams to score has also landed in all three of England’s knockout stage games: a 2-1 win against DR Congo, a 3-2 victory over Mexico, and a 2-1 extra-time win against Norway. The Three Lions haven’t looked entirely convincing either, but prediction markets give them a slight edge in this game. Both teams struggle in defense, but they’re stacked with elite attackers, so both teams to score could prove popular at 52% with Polymarket.
Messi leads the Golden Boot race after scoring eight goals in seven games so far. He was quiet against Switzerland, but he scored in each of Argentina’s previous games at this tournament. Messi has never played against England before, but he’s priced at 38% to score and 24% to provide an assist in this game. Álvarez has started Argentina’s last two games, and he curled in a magnificent strike against Switzerland, so he’s priced at 21% with Polymarket to score.
England captain Harry Kane and midfielder Jude Bellingham have each scored six goals at this tournament, leaving them two behind Messi in the Golden Boot race. Kane averages roughly a goal per game, and he’s trading at 38% to score here. Bellingham, who has four goals in his last two matches, is a value play at 24% with Polymarket.
The Three Lions have been awarded 5.83 corners per game on average at this summer’s World Cup. England has also conceded 5.83 corners per game, resulting in a total of 11.66 corners per match. For that reason, over 8.5 corners could be popular at 43% with Polymarket. Argentina has won an average of 5.16 corners per match, but it doesn’t concede as many corners as England.
World Cup final takes place on Sunday
The winner of this game will take on Spain in the World Cup final on Sunday. The game takes place at 3 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Spain will be the favorite after beating France 2-0 yesterday.
Whoever loses the game between England and Argentina will take on France in the third-place playoff game, which kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday in Miami. For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $15 Kalshi bonus (after $15 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
