Prediction markets give France a 41% chance of beating Spain in regulation time when the teams meet in Dallas for a World Cup semifinal showdown this afternoon. Les Bleus are priced at 59% to advance to the semifinals at Spain’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Prediction sites are also offering a wide range of props on the big game, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from AT&T Stadium. We’ve highlighted the most interesting France vs. Spain props and explored where the value lies.
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France vs. Spain, 3 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket props on France vs. Spain (*trading available in 49 states)
France has the best attacking record at this tournament. Les Bleus have scored 2.7 goals per game, with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise leading the charge. Those world-class forwards will need to be at their brilliant best against Spain’s defense, which has conceded just one goal in six matches so far.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 60% | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 41% | 39% |
| Kylian Mbappé to Score | 45% | 46% |
| Ousmane Dembélé to Score | 25% | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal to Score | 28% | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal to Assist | 21% | 23% |
| Michael Olise to Assist | 31% | 29% |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 48% | 59% |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 53% | 43% |
Best France vs. Spain props
Prediction markets expect France to win this game, but Spain has dominated the recent head-to-heads between these teams. Goals from Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo inspired La Roja to a 2-1 win over France in the 2024 European Championship semifinals. Spain has gone from strength to strength since winning that tournament, and it is currently on a record-equalling 36-game unbeaten streak. The teams renewed hostilities in the UEFA Nations League semifinals last year, and Spain won that game 5-4.
Both teams to score has paid off in the last three meetings between these teams. It’s trading at 60% with Polymarket for today’s game, and that could be a popular market. Polymarket also lets you unlock more value by combining both teams to score with over 2.5 goals. That could also prove popular, as over 2.5 goals has landed in the last three matches between these teams too.
Spain has scored 1.83 goals per game at this tournament. La Roja drew a blank against Cape Verde in their opener, but they were missing Yamal for most of that game. They’ve found the back of the net in all five matches since then. Their defense looked impregnable, but it was finally breached in a 2-1 win against Belgium in the quarterfinals. France is much stronger in attack than Belgium, so it should also find a way past Spain’s defense. At the other end of the pitch, Les Bleus will find it difficult to contain the likes of Yamal, Olmo, and Mikel Oyarzabal for 90 minutes.
Mbappé currently leads the Golden Boot race after scoring eight goals in six games at this tournament. He only failed to score in one of France’s six matches – a 4-1 win against Norway. Mbappé has scored 20 goals in 20 World Cup appearances during his career, and he’s priced at 45% with Polymarket to add to that tally today. He has scored two goals in three competitive matches against Spain. If Mbappé misfires, Dembélé normally picks up the slack. He scored a hat trick against Norway and has five goals in the tournament. Dembélé offers more value at 25% with Polymarket to score.
This game will also feature two of the world’s most creative players. Olise has provided five assists at this tournament, and he’s trading at 29% with Kalshi to add another today. Yamal hasn’t really been playing at his full potential, but he remains Spain’s creative spark, and he’s priced at 21% with Polymarket to assist. Kalshi also has 45% on Yamal to either score or assist, and 41% on Dembélé to either score or assist. Oyarzabal is Spain’s top scorer with four goals, and he’s trading at 28% in this game. Mikel Merino, who came off the bench to score the winning goals in Spain’s last two matches, is a value play at 16% with Polymarket.
Spain has been awarded 7.33 corners per game at this tournament, while France has earned 6.83 corners per game. Over 9.5 corners paid off in all three of France’s knockout stage games, and it also landed in Spain’s last two matches. Polymarket prices it at 48%.
World Cup semifinals conclude tomorrow
The World Cup quarterfinals will conclude with another eagerly anticipated game between England and Argentina tomorrow. The game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET in Atlanta.
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $15 Kalshi bonus (after $15 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
