Prediction markets give Spain a 60% chance of beating Belgium in regulation time when the teams meet in Los Angeles for a World Cup quarterfinal clash this afternoon. The Spaniards are priced at 74% to advance to the semifinals at Belgium’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Prediction sites are also offering a long list of props on the big game, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from SoFi Stadium. We’ve highlighted the most interesting Spain vs. Belgium props and explored where the value lies.
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Spain vs. Belgium, 3 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket props on Spain vs. Belgium (*trading available in 49 states)
Spain is the heavy favorite to beat Belgium in this game. Luis de la Fuente’s team is on a 36-game unbeaten streak, so the players will be surging with confidence. However, the Belgians have elite attackers like Kevin De Bruyne in their ranks, so they won’t go down without a fight.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 54% | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 47% | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal to Score | 42% | 41% |
| Romelu Lukaku to Score | 19% | 22% |
| Charles De Ketelaere to Score | 17% | 18% |
| Lamine Yamal to Assist | 28% | 28% |
| Kevin De Bruyne to Assist | 13% | 14% |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 52% | 59% |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 49% | 42% |
Best Spain vs. Belgium props
Spain hasn’t conceded a single goal so far at this tournament. La Roja could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde in their opener, but they were missing star winger Lamine Yamal for most of that game. Yamal returned to the starting lineup to face Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2, and he opened the scoring inside 10 minutes. Spain went on to win that game 4-0 before beating Uruguay 1-0 in its group stage closer.
The Spaniards have gone from strength to strength since then. They eased to a 3-0 win against Austria in the Round of 32, before beating a star-studded Portugal team 1-0 in the Round of 16. Mikel Merino came off the bench to score the only goal in that game, and he’s priced at 20% to score against Belgium this afternoon. Yamal hasn’t been at his brilliant best at this tournament, but he’s still Spain’s creative spark, and he’s trading at 28% to provide an assist. Kalshi has 53% on him to either score or assist.
Spain striker Mikel Oyarzabal has also been inconsistent. He scored twice against both Saudi Arabia and Austria, but he drew a blank in Spain’s other three games. Oyarzabal is the most likely player to score in this game, according to prediction markets, priced at 41% with Kalshi and 42% with Polymarket.
The Spain defense looks solid, but both teams to score is still priced at 54% with Polymarket and 55% with Kalshi. Traders think that the Belgians could have enough firepower to finally end La Roja’s remarkable run of clean sheets. After all, they’ve scored 12 goals in their last three games: a 5-1 win against New Zealand, a 3-2 extra-time victory over Senegal, and then a 4-1 win against the USA in the Round of 16.
Charles De Ketelaere scored twice in that game, as the US defense couldn’t deal with his movement in the box. Polymarket prices De Ketelaere at 17% to score today. Romelu Lukaku has been restricted to cameo appearances at this tournament because he’s not fully fit, but he has scored every 67 minutes he’s been on the pitch. He fired in Belgium’s fourth goal against the USA, and he is trading at 19% with Polymarket to add to his tally against Spain.
Spain has averaged 7.8 corners per game so far at this tournament, as the team dominates possession and applies relentless pressure to opposition defenses. Belgium has averaged 4.6 corners, so over 9.5 corners could be popular in this game, priced at 52% with Polymarket.
World Cup quarterfinals conclude tomorrow
The World Cup quarterfinals will conclude tomorrow with two games: England vs. Norway and Argentina vs. Switzerland.
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
