The USMNT, England, and Belgium became the latest teams to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 yesterday.
They will join Canada, Mexico, France, Norway, Brazil, Morocco, and Paraguay. Several elite teams will bid to join them in the next round by winning their games today.
Prediction markets give Spain a 75% chance of beating Austria in regulation time today. La Roja are trading at 88% to advance to the Round of 16 at Austria’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
The action then shifts to BMO Field in Toronto, where Portugal will take on Croatia in a star-studded clash. Today’s action concludes with Switzerland vs. Algeria at BC Place in Vancouver.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Spain vs. Austria matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Spain vs. Austria, 3 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Spain vs. Austria (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction markets give Spain a 50/50 chance of covering a 1.5-goal spread against Austria in this game. That highlights the gulf in quality between these teams.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Spain) | 88% | 86% |
| To Advance (Austria) | 13% | 14% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Spain) | 75% | 75% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 18% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Austria) | 8% | 9% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Spain -1.5) | 50% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Austria +1.5) | 50% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 57% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 43% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 44% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 57% | 56% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Spain) | 76% | 77% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 6% | 4% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Austria) | 21% | 20% |
How Spain vs. Austria breaks down
Spain won its group after drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde, thumping Saudi Arabia 4-0, and battling to a 1-0 victory over Uruguay. That result extended La Roja’s unbeaten streak to 34 games, so the players should be full of confidence right now. They’re the reigning European champions, so it’s easy to see why prediction markets give the Spaniards a 75% chance of winning this game in regulation.
Right winger Lamine Yamal missed most of the game against Cape Verde as he was still recovering from a hamstring injury. Spain has looked far more dangerous in attack since he returned to the starting lineup for the 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2. He’s priced at 43% on Polymarket to score in this game. That could be a popular market, as Austria struggled to deal with right winger Riyad Mahrez in its last game.
Austria began its World Cup campaign with a 3-1 win against Jordan, but it then lost 2-0 to Argentina on Matchday 2. The Austrians then played out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Algeria in their group stage closer. Mahrez scored twice, and the Austrians were on the brink of elimination, but Saša Kalajdžić’s last-minute header rescued them. That ensured Austria finished second in its group, but it now faces a daunting showdown with Spain today.
Spain hasn’t conceded a single goal at this tournament, so “both teams to score – no” is trading at 56% with Kalshi. La Roja’s forwards haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders, but Austria has conceded two goals per game on average at this tournament, so it’s easy to see why Spain -1.5 is priced at 50% with Polymarket.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are two more World Cup matchups taking place today. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them.
Portugal vs. Croatia, 7 p.m. ET
Soccer fans can look forward to a heavyweight clash between two elite European teams this evening. Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić won four Champions League titles together during their time at Real Madrid, but these former teammates will now go head-to-head in Toronto.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Portugal vs. Croatia (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Portugal) | 69% | 69% |
| To Advance (Croatia) | 31% | 31% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Portugal) | 57% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 26% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Croatia) | 18% | 19% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Portugal -1.5) | 32% | 32% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Croatia +1.5) | 69% | 69% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 46% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 57% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 44% | 43% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Portugal) | 61% | 62% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 7% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Croatia) | 33% | 34% |
Portugal could only finish second in Group K after a couple of disappointing results. Roberto Martínez’s men drew 1-1 with DR Congo in their opener. They then thrashed Uzbekistan 5-0, with Ronaldo scoring twice, but they drew 0-0 with Colombia in their group stage closer. That means they now face a tricky Round of 32 clash with Croatia, which finished second at the 2018 World Cup and third in 2022.
Most of Croatia’s best players have either retired or regressed, but the next generation showed flashes of brilliance during the group stage. The Croats lost 4-2 to England in their opener, but they bounced back by beating Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1. They’ve found the back of the net in all three matches so far, so both teams to score looks interesting at 57% with Kalshi in this game.
Portugal boasts arguably the best midfield in the world, featuring Vitinha, João Neves, and Bruno Fernandes. That trio could have too much energy for veteran Croatian midfielders Modrić and Mateo Kovačić to handle. If the Portuguese can get the ball to Ronaldo in the penalty box, they should win this game. However, he drew a blank against Colombia, so the 41-year-old Portugal captain will need better service today. He’s priced at 47% with Kalshi to score in this game.
Switzerland vs. Algeria, 11 p.m. ET
Prediction markets expect Switzerland to beat Algeria when the teams clash in Vancouver tonight. They’re priced at 48% on Polymarket to win in regulation time and 67% to progress to the Round of 16 at Algeria’s expense.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Switzerland vs. Algeria (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Switzerland) | 67% | 66% |
| To Advance (Algeria) | 34% | 35% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Switzerland) | 48% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 30% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Algeria) | 23% | 23% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Switzerland -1.5) | 23% | 24% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Algeria +1.5) | 77% | 77% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 44% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 56% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 52% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 49% | 49% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Switzerland) | 57% | 57% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 11% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Algeria) | 37% | 37% |
Morale should be high in the Swiss camp after they won Group A. Switzerland could only draw with Qatar in its opening game, but it then beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1, before clinching a 2-1 win against Canada. The team’s reward for winning the group is a Round of 32 game against Algeria, which finished third in Group J.
The Algerians have only won one game at this tournament, and that victory came against a technically limited Jordan team. However, the Desert Foxes look dangerous in attack, and they’ll be buoyed by their 3-3 draw with Austria earlier this week. Both teams to score is trading at 52%, which could be popular, as it has paid off in all three of Switzerland’s games so far at this summer’s World Cup. The Swiss have a stronger spine than Algeria, and Johan Manzambi is in fine form, so traders expect them to prevail in this match.
Round of 32 concludes tomorrow
Three teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 16 today. The Round of 32 then concludes with three more games tomorrow:
- Australia vs. Egypt
- Argentina vs. Cape Verde
- Colombia vs. Ghana
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
