Brazil, Paraguay, and Morocco became the latest teams to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 yesterday.
Brazil battled to a 2-1 comeback win against Japan, while Paraguay beat Germany on penalties and Morocco won another penalty shootout against the Netherlands.
They will join Canada in the Round of 16. Several teams will bid to join them in the next round by winning their games today.
Prediction markets give Mexico a 44% chance of beating Ecuador in regulation time today. El Tri are trading at 63% to advance to the Round of 16 at Ecuador’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Before that game gets underway, soccer fans can look forward to two intriguing games – Ivory Coast vs. Norway in Dallas, followed by France vs. Sweden in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Mexico vs. Ecuador matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 9 p.m. ET on FOX from Estadio Banorte in Mexico City.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Mexico vs. Ecuador, 9 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Mexico vs. Ecuador (*trading available in 49 states)
Mexico is the favorite to win this game after cruising through the group stage. El Tri beat South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0, so they’re surging with momentum right now. However, they’ll face a strong Ecuador team led by PSG’s Willian Pacho and Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Mexico) | 63% | 63% |
| To Advance (Ecuador) | 38% | 37% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Mexico) | 44% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 34% | 34% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Ecuador) | 24% | 24% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Mexico -1.5) | 19% | 20% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Ecuador +1.5) | 82% | 81% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 60% | 61% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 41% | 40% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 41% | 42% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 60% | 59% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Mexico) | 53% | 54% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 15% | 13% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Ecuador) | 33% | 35% |
How Mexico vs. Ecuador breaks down
Prediction markets expect a tight, low-scoring game between Mexico and Ecuador. Over 2.5 goals is priced at just 32% with Polymarket and Kalshi, as both teams are strong in defense. Mexico is currently on an 11-game unbeaten streak and has only conceded two goals during that stretch. El Tri won all three of their group stage games without conceding a single goal, while Ecuador has elite defenders like Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié in its ranks. For that reason, both teams to score is priced at 41% with Polymarket.
The teams look evenly matched, but home advantage could ultimately swing this game in Mexico’s favor. El Tri benefited from strong home support during the group stage, and the atmosphere inside Estadio Banorte will be electric tonight. Prediction sites give Mexico a 63% chance of advancing to the Round of 16, and El Tri are trading at 44% to win the game in regulation time.
There are a few statistical quirks for traders to consider. All three of Ecuador’s group stage games were tied at halftime – 0-0 against Ivory Coast, 0-0 against Curaçao, and 1-1 against Germany. The Ecuadorians ended up losing to Ivory Coast and beating Germany, but all three games were tight in the first half. Mexico’s last two games were also tied at the break. A halftime draw is priced at 51% by Polymarket for this game.
Mexico also won just four corner kicks during the entire group stage – three against South Africa, none in a 1-0 win against South Korea, and one against Czechia. El Tri don’t commit many men forward, and they don’t whip many crosses into the box. Under 4.5 corners for Mexico is trading at 60% on Polymarket, which could be a popular market.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are two more World Cup matchups taking place today. The action begins with Norway vs. Ivory Coast, and we can then look forward to a high-profile clash between France and Sweden.
Ivory Coast vs. Norway, 1 p.m. ET
Norway is the favorite to advance to the Round of 16 at Ivory Coast’s expense. This is the first game of the day. It takes place at 1 p.m. ET in Dallas, so the players will need to deal with fierce heat.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Ivory Coast vs. Norway (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Ivory Coast) | 37% | 36% |
| To Advance (Norway) | 64% | 64% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Ivory Coast) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Norway) | 46% | 47% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Ivory Coast +1.5) | 77% | 76% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Norway -1.5) | 24% | 25% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 51% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 50% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 42% | 43% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Ivory Coast) | 39% | 39% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 7% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Norway) | 56% | 54% |
Norway began its World Cup campaign by thrashing Iraq 4-1. The Norwegians then battled to a 3-2 victory over Senegal. Man City striker Erling Haaland scored twice in both of those games, and captain Martin Ødegaard pulled the strings with aplomb in midfield. Manager Ståle Solbakken then decided to rest 10 of his regular starters for the game against France earlier this week, and Norway’s reserves duly lost 4-1.
However, the Norwegians qualified for the Round of 32 as runners-up in their group, and players like Haaland and Ødegaard should now be fresh for this game. Haaland is trading at 53% with Kalshi to score. He has scored a goal every 45 minutes at this tournament, so that could be an interesting option.
Ivory Coast did well to clinch the runner-up spot in its group. The Elephants beat Ecuador 1-0, lost 2-1 to Germany, and then beat Curaçao 2-0. They have lots of quick, dangerous forwards, including Yan Diomande, Amad Diallo, and Nicolas Pépé, so both teams to score is priced at 58% with Kalshi.
France vs. Sweden, 5 p.m. ET
The action then shifts to MetLife Stadium, where France will take on Sweden. France is the clear favorite to win the World Cup, priced at 28.9% with Kalshi and 28.2% with Polymarket. However, Les Bleus will need to get past Sweden first, and they’ll need to find a way to contain Swedish strikers Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on France vs. Sweden (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (France) | 89% | 88% |
| To Advance (Sweden) | 12% | 12% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (France) | 77% | 78% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 16% | 16% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Sweden) | 8% | 8% |
| Regulation Time Spread (France -1.5) | 54% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Sweden +1.5) | 47% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 45% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 56% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 54% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 47% | 46% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (France) | 77% | 77% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 3% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Sweden) | 20% | 21% |
France is the clear favorite to win the World Cup after sweeping aside Norway, Senegal, and Iraq during the group stage. Star forwards Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé have both scored four goals already, while the likes of Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola are also in fine form.
Les Bleus kept only one clean sheet in the group stage, but they scored four times against Norway, three against Iraq, and three against Senegal. Kalshi prices France at 50% to score over 2.5 goals in this game. That could be interesting, as Sweden’s defense has been leaking goals at this tournament.
The Swedes began their campaign with an impressive 5-1 win against Tunisia, but they then lost 5-1 to the Netherlands and drew 1-1 with Japan. They could struggle to contain the likes of Mbappé and Dembélé in this game. However, they have dangerous forwards in their ranks, including Liverpool’s Isak, Arsenal’s Gyökeres, and Newcastle’s Anthony Elanga, so both teams to score looks interesting at 54% with Polymarket. Markets price France at 77% to win in regulation time, but you can unlock more value by backing Les Bleus to cover a 1.5-goal spread.
Knockout stage continues tomorrow
Three teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 16 today. The knockout stage continues with three more games tomorrow:
- England vs. DR Congo
- Belgium vs. Senegal
- USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
