Canada became the first team to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 after beating South Africa 1-0 yesterday. Several elite teams will bid to join the CanMNT by winning their games today.
Prediction markets give Brazil a 58% chance of beating Japan in regulation time today. The Seleção are trading at 73% to advance to the Round of 16 at Japan’s expense – a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
The action then shifts to New England, where Germany will take on Paraguay at Gillette Stadium. The final game of the day sees the Netherlands face Morocco in Monterrey.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Brazil vs. Japan matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on FOX from NRG Stadium in Houston. Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Brazil vs. Japan, 1 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Brazil vs. Japan (*trading available in 49 states)
Brazil is the most successful team in World Cup history, whereas Japan has never won a World Cup knockout stage game. That historical ceiling is reflected in the prediction markets, as Brazil is priced at 73% with Kalshi and 74% with Polymarket to advance to the next round.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Brazil) | 74% | 73% |
| To Advance (Japan) | 28% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Brazil) | 58% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 26% | 26% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Japan) | 18% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Brazil -1.5) | 31% | 31% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Japan +1.5) | 70% | 70% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 46% | 47% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 55% | 54% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | N/A | 52% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | N/A | 49% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Brazil) | 64% | 63% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 8% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Japan) | 30% | 30% |
How Brazil vs. Japan breaks down
Brazil’s players should be full of confidence after winning Group C with an unbeaten record. They could only draw 1-1 with Morocco in their opener, but they then beat Haiti 3-0 and Scotland 3-0. Vinícius Júnior has been sensational at this tournament, with four goals in three games so far. The Real Madrid winger is priced at 39% with Polymarket to find the back of the net in this game.
It’s important to note that most contracts now settle at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury time). They don’t cover extra time or penalties if the game ends in a draw at the end of regulation time. The only exception is the “To Advance” market, which takes extra time and penalties into account.
Brazil certainly has enough quality to win this game in regulation time. Right winger Raphinha is injured, but Rayan has emerged as a reliable understudy, while fellow forward Matheus Cunha is on a hot streak in front of goal. He scored twice against Haiti, and he was also on target in that 3-0 victory over Scotland. The Brazilian defense has been strong, conceding just 0.33 goals per game at this tournament, and the midfield looks impressive too.
Japan was also unbeaten during the group stage. It drew 2-2 with the Netherlands, beat Tunisia 4-0, and then drew 1-1 with Sweden. However, the defense looked shaky at times, so it could struggle to deal with Vinícius in this game. For that reason, Brazil is priced at 58% to win this game without the need for extra time or penalties.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are two more World Cup matchups taking place today: Germany vs. Paraguay and the Netherlands vs. Morocco.
Germany vs. Paraguay, 4:30 p.m. ET
Germany is the heavy favorite to advance to the Round of 16 at Paraguay’s expense. The Germans crashed out in the group stage at the last two World Cups, but they look more resolute this year.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Germany vs. Paraguay (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Germany) | 87% | 86% |
| To Advance (Paraguay) | 14% | 14% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Germany) | 73% | 74% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 19% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Paraguay) | 10% | 9% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Germany -1.5) | 46% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Paraguay +1.5) | 55% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 57% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 44% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | 46% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | 55% | 55% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Germany) | 75% | 74% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 6% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Paraguay) | 20% | 21% |
Germany should have too much firepower for Paraguay in this game. Die Mannschaft beat Curaçao 7-1 in their opener, before battling to a 2-1 comeback win against Ivory Coast. That victory ensured they won the group, so the players may have lacked motivation for their final group stage game, a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador.
They should be fired up for this match. Germany’s key strength lies in attack, with Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz operating as twin No. 10s behind Kai Havertz. Deniz Undav has excelled when coming on as a second-half substitute too. Germany scored 10 goals in three group stage games, so they have enough creativity and guile to unlock a stubborn Paraguay defense.
The Paraguayans only conceded 10 goals in 18 South American World Cup qualifiers, despite facing top teams like Argentina and Brazil. Their reputation for defensive excellence took a knock when they lost 4-1 to the USA on Matchday 1, but they bounced back by beating Türkiye 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Australia.
That earned them a place in the Round of 32, but prediction markets suggest that this could be the end of the road for La Albirroja. They’re priced at just 14% to advance to the next round. If you want more value, you can back Germany to cover a 1.5-goal spread, which is priced at 46% with Polymarket.
Netherlands vs. Morocco, 9 p.m. ET
This is arguably the biggest game of the round. Morocco and the Netherlands are No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, in the FIFA world rankings, so it’s a genuine heavyweight clash. The Dutch are the favorites to advance, but Morocco is on a long unbeaten streak, so it promises to be an intriguing game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Netherlands vs. Morocco (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Netherlands) | 61% | 61% |
| To Advance (Morocco) | 40% | 40% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Netherlands) | 43% | 43% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 32% | 32% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Morocco) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Netherlands -1.5) | 20% | 20% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Morocco +1.5) | 81% | 81% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 57% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | N/A | 54% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score | N/A | 47% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Netherlands) | 54% | 53% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 9% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Morocco) | 39% | 39% |
Prediction markets give the Netherlands a 61% chance of advancing to the Round of 16 at Morocco’s expense. The Dutch were impressive in attack during the group stage. They only drew 2-2 with Japan in their opener, but manager Ronald Koeman then shuffled his pack, deploying Brian Brobbey as a center-forward, with Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen on the flanks. The results were spectacular, as the Netherlands thrashed Sweden 5-1 and then beat Tunisia 3-1.
Brobbey has scored three goals in two games since coming into the starting lineup, and he’s priced at 25% with Polymarket to find the back of the net in today’s match. At the other end of the pitch, the Dutch defense has been uncharacteristically leaky. The Oranje didn’t keep a single clean sheet in the group stage, despite boasting elite defenders like Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven. That suggests we could be in for an open, entertaining game today.
Morocco was rock-solid in defense when it finished fourth at the last World Cup. The Atlas Lions have arguably improved since then, and they’re currently on a 32-game unbeaten streak (27 wins, five draws). They drew 1-1 with Brazil before beating Scotland 1-0 and Haiti 4-2. That game against Haiti showed that the Moroccan defense is vulnerable, so both teams to score could be popular at 54% with Kalshi. The teams look evenly matched, so backing a team to advance rather than win in regulation time could be a sensible approach.
Knockout stage continues tomorrow
Three teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 16 today. The knockout stage continues with three exciting games tomorrow:
- Ivory Coast vs. Norway
- France vs. Sweden
- Mexico vs. Ecuador
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
