The USA will take on Australia in a crucial World Cup game at Lumen Field in Seattle this afternoon. Prediction markets give the USMNT a 61% chance of winning the match, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET.
Soccer fans can then look forward to three more games: Scotland vs. Morocco, Brazil vs. Haiti, and Türkiye vs. Paraguay. We’ve previewed all four matches, featuring the latest insights from prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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USA vs. Australia odds: Expect a win for the USMNT
The USMNT players will be full of confidence after easing to a 4-1 win against Paraguay on Matchday 1. Striker Folarin Balogun scored twice in that game, while star players like Weston McKennie and Christian Pulisic also impressed. Gio Reyna underscored the USA’s strength in depth by coming off the bench to curl in an audacious trivela in the closing stages.
Pulisic had to be taken off with a calf injury in that game. Manager Mauricio Pochettino noted that he’s doing “much better,” but his availability for today is still in question. That’s a major boost for Team USA, as he linked up well with Balogun, McKennie, and Sergiño Dest in a fluid USMNT attack last week. Paraguay had a reputation for defensive solidity, but the USA’s forwards carved the opposition defense open with ease.
The USA will now face a stern test of its mettle against Australia, which earned a shock 2-0 win against Türkiye on Matchday 1. Türkiye dominated the game, but the Socceroos looked dangerous on the counterattack and clinched a thrilling smash-and-grab win. Prediction sites give the USA a 61% chance of winning this game. It should have enough quality to get the job done, but it will need to guard against Australia’s rapid counterattacks.
Both teams to score is priced at 52% on Polymarket, which is a popular market with $163,000 traded. Balogun was superb against Paraguay. He’s priced at 41% with Kalshi to score in this game, while Pulisic is trading at 48% to either score or assist.
Scotland vs. Morocco odds: Markets are backing Morocco
Scotland earned a hard-fought 1-0 win against Haiti in its opener, but the Scots will face a much tougher game today. They’re coming up against a well-drilled Moroccan team, which picked up an impressive 1-1 draw with Brazil on Matchday 1. Morocco dominated the early stages of that game, and it was a little unfortunate not to win.
The Scots are strong in midfield, as Scott McTominay and John McGinn are quality players, but there’s a gulf in quality between these teams. Morocco is the reigning African champion, and the Atlas Lions are now No. 6 in the FIFA world rankings – 33 places ahead of Scotland.
Morocco is trading at 57% with Kalshi and Polymarket to win this game, while the draw (tie) is 27% and Scotland is priced at 17%. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 58% after it landed in both of their games on Matchday 1. The game kicks off at 6 p.m. ET in Foxborough.
Brazil vs. Haiti: Anticipate a heavy win from Brazil
This looks like the biggest mismatch on Day 9 of the World Cup. Brazil has world-class players like Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Marquinhos, and Gabriel Magalhães in its ranks. Haiti is a relative minnow, and the Grenadiers are playing at their first World Cup since 1974. They lost to Scotland in their opener, so it’s hard to see them beating Brazil in Philadelphia tonight (8:30 p.m. ET kickoff).
Brazil is priced at 89% with prediction markets to win this game. The draw is 8%, and Haiti is trading at just 5%. More than $9 million has already been traded on this match at Kalshi. For more value, you can back Brazil to cover a 2.5-goal spread. That’s priced at 52% with Kalshi. Vinícius scored a superb goal against Morocco in Brazil’s opener, and he’s trading at 55% to find the back of the net in this match.
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye has the most likely edge
This is shaping up to be a crucial game in Group D. Türkiye lost to Australia in its opener, and Paraguay fell to the USA, so both teams are now fighting for survival. Türkiye was a little unfortunate to lose on Matchday 1, as it dominated that game: 63% of the possession, 28 shots, and seven on target. The forwards just couldn’t find a breakthrough, so they’ll need to sharpen up their finishing when they face Paraguay in San Francisco tonight (11 p.m. ET kickoff).
Prediction markets give Türkiye a 47% chance of winning the game. A draw is priced at 29%, and Paraguay is trading at 25%. Paraguay was outclassed against the USMNT in its opening game, and that could knock the players’ confidence. The Paraguayans will be up against dangerous players like Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, so it could be a difficult game for them.
World Cup Day 8 recap
Mexico won Group A after battling to a 1-0 victory over South Korea. Luis Romo scored the only goal after seizing upon an error from goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu. Czechia could only draw 1-1 with South Africa after conceding a late penalty. South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa will now fight for the runner-up spot on Matchday 3.
Canada earned its first-ever World Cup win by thrashing Qatar 6-0. Cyle Larin scored for the second consecutive game, and Jonathan David fired in a hat-trick, but the victory was overshadowed by a bad injury to Ismaël Koné. The CanMNT midfielder suffered a broken leg after falling awkwardly following Assim Madibo’s challenge. Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1, so the Swiss and Canada will now battle for first place when they clash in Vancouver on Matchday 3.
Prediction sites now give Mexico a 1.6% chance of winning the World Cup, while Canada is still priced at 0.1%. France is the clear favorite at 18.5% after beating Senegal 3-1 in its opener, while Spain has fallen to 13.6% after slumping to a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde. Traders have grown more bullish on England and Argentina after they made winning starts to the World Cup, while the biggest fallers include Portugal, Brazil, Belgium, and Croatia.
