Incumbent LA Mayor Karen Bass is still the favorite to win reelection in November, but the real twist is that prediction markets badly overread Spencer Pratt’s early momentum in the race’s primary election.
Despite an early surge to second place, Pratt has now slipped to third as officials continue to count votes. The markets corrected fast, even as outside noise around the tally kept the race messy. Now, City Council member Nithya Raman is the easy favorite to face Bass in the November general election.
While prediction markets nailed several early primary results, traders have been off on a few key races, like the Iowa Republican governor’s primary.
Pratt falls back
A reality TV star, Pratt stormed into the mayoral race, and prediction markets briefly treated him like a real threat to shape the runoff. Now, however, traders have had to walk that back when the vote picture sharpened.
It was likely a misread that happens when celebrity energy outruns actual vote strength.
Raman has overtaken Pratt, and the media and markets largely believe it’s for good. It’s less a market failure in the end and more a story about how quickly a noisy, highly public race can fool traders before the ballots settle the question.
Prediction markets favor Bass in November
The runoff itself still looks like Bass’s race to lose. She is sitting at 57% on Kalshi and 56% on Polymarket for November, with loads of volume. Traders have poured $78 million into the general election contract on Kalshi and $1.8 million into the contract on Polymarket.
Traders still view Bass as the stronger side in the general election matchup, even after all the churn in the primary. That is the most stable signal in the whole contest.
So while Pratt’s collapse from the market’s earlier expectations is the headline for the primary, the broader Los Angeles story remains pretty simple. Bass still has the incumbent advantage, and the market still thinks she gets through November.
Why prediction markets overcalled Pratt in LA Mayor Race
Pratt’s candidacy always had a built-in media and market hook. He was a celebrity, he had President Donald Trump’s backing, and he looked like the kind of outsider who could get priced up quickly in a crowded race.
But that kind of profile can create a false sense of durability if traders get ahead of the actual vote count.
Once the returns tightened and Raman moved ahead, the market had to adjust. The correction says less about Pratt as a novelty and more about the limits of treating attention as support. In a race like this, the line between a compelling storyline and a real voting coalition can disappear fast.
The noise around the count
There has also been plenty of outside static around the election itself, which only added to the confusion. Some of the post-election noise has moved beyond the actual numbers to broader claims about the tally, keeping the race in the headlines even as the market has largely moved on from Pratt.
Elon Musk, among other right-wing figures on social media, alleged the vote counts were rigged. Trump has also accused California officials of “cheating.” But the Department of Justice has debunked those claims, per CNN.
That kind of environment is exactly where prediction markets can get noisy, too. They are good at reacting quickly, but in a race with celebrity candidates, volatile counting, and a lot of public attention, they can also overreact before the vote distribution is clear.
Prediction markets can get the shape of a race wrong when the attention economy is moving faster than the vote count. Pratt had a real market moment, but it didn’t survive contact with the ballots, and Bass still stands as the favorite for November.
