2027 Oscars Odds: Best Predictions on Picture, Actor, Actress & Director
Prediction markets have The Odyssey leading the 2027 Best Picture nomination race at 98.5%, with Wild Horse Nine at 80.5% and Dune: Part Three at 78.0% among the strongest contenders to win a nomination. The Venice Film Festival is now testing the field. Wild Horse Nine entered the festival near the top of nomination markets and received an enthusiastic early press-screening response, while Ink opened to favorable reviews without a sustained rise in its nomination odds. Markets are also taking shape for Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress. DeFi Rate aggregates live Oscar odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated every 30 minutes using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).
Which Film Will Be Nominated for Best Picture?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TOThe Odyssey
Vol $9.6K
Spread 1.1%
Agg
98.5%↑ +11.5%
K
98.5%
P
97.4%
WHNWild Horse Nine
Vol $23.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
80.5%↑ +17.5%
K
80.5%
P
79.5%
DPTDune: Part Three
Vol $1.8K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
78.0%↑ +2.0%
P
82.5%
K
78.0%
PHMProject Hail Mary
Vol $25.4K
Spread 6.0%
Agg
76.5%↑ +7.0%
P
82.5%
K
76.5%
FJFjord
Vol $1.7K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
61.0%↑ +25.0%
P
61.5%
K
61.0%
DIDigger
Vol $3.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
52.5%↓ -10.5%
K
52.5%
P
51.5%
BEBehemoth
Vol $1.3K
Spread —
Agg
42.5%↑ +16.0%
K
42.5%
AOAAll of a Sudden
Vol $1.3K
Spread 2.0%
Agg
29.5%↑ +3.5%
P
31.5%
K
29.5%
INInk
Vol $6.1K
Spread —
Agg
26.5%↑ +19.5%
K
26.5%
JOJosephine
Vol $496
Spread —
Agg
18.5%↓ -14.5%
K
18.5%
BHBeing Heumann
Vol $1.7K
Spread —
Agg
18.0%↓ -7.0%
K
18.0%
TAOThe Adventures of Cliff Booth
Vol $3.2K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
17.7%↓ -24.3%
P
19.5%
K
17.0%
TSRThe Social Reckoning
Vol $3.8K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
17.6%↓ -23.4%
K
18.0%
P
17.0%
SASSense and Sensibility
Vol $1.2K
Spread —
Agg
14.5%↓ -10.0%
K
14.5%
1F1949 / Fatherland
Vol $113
Spread 4.0%
Agg
12.5%↓ -27.5%
P
16.5%
K
12.5%
MIMichael
Vol $558
Spread 2.0%
Agg
12.5%— +0.0%
P
14.5%
K
12.5%
TDThe Drama
Vol $176
Spread 2.0%
Agg
5.5%↑ +0.5%
P
7.5%
K
5.5%
ARArtificial
Vol $595
Spread —
Agg
5.0%↓ -11.5%
K
5.0%
SRSaturn Return
Vol $3.6K
Spread —
Agg
5.0%↓ -13.0%
K
5.0%
WEWerwulf
Vol $210
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -20.5%
K
4.5%
CTHCry to Heaven
Vol $212
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -25.0%
K
4.0%
ILBI Love Boosters
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -16.0%
K
4.0%
TESThe Entertainment System Is Down
Vol $7
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -9.0%
K
4.0%
DDDisclosure Day
Vol $4.8K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
3.5%↓ -38.0%
P
3.8%
K
3.5%
TDOThe Death of Robin Hood
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -9.0%
K
3.5%
ADAvengers: Doomsday
Vol $5.4K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
3.0%↓ -1.5%
P
6.5%
K
3.0%
JOSJack of Spades
Vol $1.9K
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -15.5%
K
2.5%
PTParallel Tales
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -30.0%
K
2.0%
NTMNarnia: The Magician's Nephew
Vol $6.4K
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -28.0%
K
1.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO The Odyssey | 98.5% ↑ +11.5% | 1.1% | $9.6K |
Kalshi
98.5%
|
Polymarket
97.4%
|
WHN Wild Horse Nine | 80.5% ↑ +17.5% | 1.0% | $23.2K |
Kalshi
80.5%
|
Polymarket
79.5%
|
DPT Dune: Part Three | 78.0% ↑ +2.0% | 4.5% | $1.8K |
Kalshi
78.0%
|
Polymarket
82.5%
|
PHM Project Hail Mary | 76.5% ↑ +7.0% | 6.0% | $25.4K |
Kalshi
76.5%
|
Polymarket
82.5%
|
FJ Fjord | 61.0% ↑ +25.0% | 0.5% | $1.7K |
Kalshi
61.0%
|
Polymarket
61.5%
|
DI Digger | 52.5% ↓ -10.5% | 1.0% | $3.2K |
Kalshi
52.5%
|
Polymarket
51.5%
|
BE Behemoth | 42.5% ↑ +16.0% | — | $1.3K |
Kalshi
42.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
AOA All of a Sudden | 29.5% ↑ +3.5% | 2.0% | $1.3K |
Kalshi
29.5%
|
Polymarket
31.5%
|
IN Ink | 26.5% ↑ +19.5% | — | $6.1K |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
JO Josephine | 18.5% ↓ -14.5% | — | $496 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
BH Being Heumann | 18.0% ↓ -7.0% | — | $1.7K |
Kalshi
18.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 17.7% ↓ -24.3% | 2.5% | $3.2K |
Kalshi
17.0%
|
Polymarket
19.5%
|
TSR The Social Reckoning | 17.6% ↓ -23.4% | 1.0% | $3.8K |
Kalshi
18.0%
|
Polymarket
17.0%
|
SAS Sense and Sensibility | 14.5% ↓ -10.0% | — | $1.2K |
Kalshi
14.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
1F 1949 / Fatherland | 12.5% ↓ -27.5% | 4.0% | $113 |
Kalshi
12.5%
|
Polymarket
16.5%
|
MI Michael | 12.5% — +0.0% | 2.0% | $558 |
Kalshi
12.5%
|
Polymarket
14.5%
|
TD The Drama | 5.5% ↑ +0.5% | 2.0% | $176 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Polymarket
7.5%
|
AR Artificial | 5.0% ↓ -11.5% | — | $595 |
Kalshi
5.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
SR Saturn Return | 5.0% ↓ -13.0% | — | $3.6K |
Kalshi
5.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
WE Werwulf | 4.5% ↓ -20.5% | — | $210 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
CTH Cry to Heaven | 4.0% ↓ -25.0% | — | $212 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
ILB I Love Boosters | 4.0% ↓ -16.0% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
TES The Entertainment System Is Down | 4.0% ↓ -9.0% | — | $7 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
DD Disclosure Day | 3.5% ↓ -38.0% | 0.2% | $4.8K |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Polymarket
3.8%
|
TDO The Death of Robin Hood | 3.5% ↓ -9.0% | — | $3 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
AD Avengers: Doomsday | 3.0% ↓ -1.5% | 3.5% | $5.4K |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Polymarket
6.5%
|
JOS Jack of Spades | 2.5% ↓ -15.5% | — | $1.9K |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
PT Parallel Tales | 2.0% ↓ -30.0% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew | 1.5% ↓ -28.0% | — | $6.4K |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TOThe Odyssey
Vol $16.0K
Spread 12.0%
Agg
49.4%↑ +19.9%
U
61.0%
K
49.5%
P
49.0%
DPTDune: Part Three
Vol $1.0K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
12.5%↑ +4.0%
U
17.0%
P
15.5%
K
12.5%
TBBThe Black Ball
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
12.0%↑ +2.0%
U
12.0%
WHNWild Horse Nine
Vol $96
Spread 3.5%
Agg
8.0%— +0.0%
P
8.5%
K
7.5%
U
5.0%
DIDigger
Vol $28
Spread 0.6%
Agg
4.5%↓ -3.0%
P
4.6%
K
4.5%
U
4.0%
FJFjord
Vol $23
Spread 3.5%
Agg
2.0%— +0.0%
P
5.5%
U
3.0%
K
2.0%
BEBehemoth
Vol $1
Spread 1.8%
Agg
1.5%↑ +0.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.5%
P
0.3%
PHMProject Hail Mary
Vol $139
Spread 2.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -6.5%
U
4.0%
P
2.5%
K
1.5%
ADAvengers: Doomsday
Vol $54
Spread 0.7%
Agg
1.0%↑ +0.5%
K
1.0%
P
0.3%
TSRThe Social Reckoning
Vol $0
Spread 1.8%
Agg
1.0%↓ -7.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
P
0.3%
AOAAll of a Sudden
Vol $1
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
ARArtificial
Vol $13
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
K
0.5%
CTHCry to Heaven
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
ILBI Love Boosters
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
INInk
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
JOJosephine
Vol $5
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
U
3.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
MIMichael
Vol $10
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
NTMNarnia: The Magician's Nephew
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
K
0.5%
SASSense and Sensibility
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
TAOThe Adventures of Cliff Booth
Vol $0
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
TDOThe Death of Robin Hood
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
TDThe Drama
Vol $1
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
TESThe Entertainment System Is Down
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -0.5%
K
0.5%
TITie
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
WEWerwulf
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
DDDisclosure Day
Vol $0
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%↓ -3.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
1F1949 / Fatherland
Vol $0
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.4%↓ -3.1%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
TOTony
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↑ +0.2%
P
0.4%
CLClarissa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↑ +0.1%
P
0.2%
SRSaturn Return
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -2.1%
P
0.2%
Predictions on 2027 Oscar for Best Actor
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MDMatt Damon
Vol $256
Spread 5.5%
Agg
26.5%↓ -2.0%
U
32.0%
P
26.5%
JMJohn Malkovich
Vol $218
Spread 4.8%
Agg
21.3%↓ -2.7%
U
22.0%
K
21.5%
P
17.2%
ASAndrew Scott
Vol $406
Spread 0.5%
Agg
16.5%↑ +13.5%
K
16.5%
P
16.5%
U
16.0%
TCTom Cruise
Vol $143
Spread 1.5%
Agg
14.5%↓ -10.0%
U
16.0%
P
15.5%
K
14.5%
EHEthan Hawke
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
14.0%↓ -1.0%
U
14.0%
RPRobert Pattinson
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.3%↓ -4.4%
P
7.3%
JSJeremy Strong
Vol $0
Spread 5.0%
Agg
7.0%↑ +6.3%
P
7.0%
U
2.0%
TCTimothée Chalamet
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↑ +1.6%
P
3.5%
JTJacob Tremblay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -35.0%
U
3.0%
RGRyan Gosling
Vol $0
Spread 0.3%
Agg
2.3%↓ -0.4%
P
2.3%
U
2.0%
HZHanns Zischler
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -36.0%
U
2.0%
SBCSacha Baron Cohen
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -13.0%
U
2.0%
SSSebastian Stan
Vol $13
Spread 2.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -3.0%
U
4.0%
P
2.5%
K
1.5%
JBJavier Bardem
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↑ +0.3%
P
1.5%
PPPedro Pascal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.9%↓ -1.2%
P
0.9%
SRSam Rockwell
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.8%↓ -2.5%
P
0.8%
JJJaafar Jackson
Vol $0
Spread 1.3%
Agg
0.8%↑ +0.5%
U
2.0%
P
0.8%
CTChanning Tatum
Vol $5
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
CMCharles Melton
Vol $0
Spread 19.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
U
20.0%
K
0.5%
JOCJosh O'Connor
Vol $0
Spread 10.9%
Agg
0.5%↓ -4.5%
U
11.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.2%
KRKeanu Reeves
Vol $0
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -2.5%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
TITie
Vol $14
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
K
0.5%
ADAdam Driver
Vol $0
Spread 2.7%
Agg
0.4%↓ -2.6%
U
3.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
BPBrad Pitt
Vol $0
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.4%↓ -3.6%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
RARobert Aramayo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.2%
P
0.3%
JTJohn Turturro
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
P
0.2%
2027 Best Director odds and predictions
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CNChristopher Nolan
Vol $207
Spread 2.0%
Agg
60.0%↑ +27.0%
K
60.0%
P
58.0%
DVDenis Villeneuve
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
21.0%↑ +7.0%
P
21.0%
JFJordan Firstman
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.7%↑ +7.6%
P
7.7%
JEJesse Eisenberg
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.2%↑ +1.7%
P
7.2%
LOLance Oppenheim
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.8%↑ +3.6%
P
6.8%
AGIAlejandro G. Iñárritu
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.0%↓ -4.0%
P
6.0%
MMMartin McDonagh
Vol $2
Spread 1.0%
Agg
6.0%↓ -12.5%
P
7.0%
K
6.0%
ASAaron Sorkin
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↑ +0.9%
P
5.5%
DORDavid O. Russell
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.4%↑ +5.1%
P
5.4%
PFPeter Farrelly
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.3%↑ +0.6%
P
5.3%
PLCPhil Lord & Christopher Miller
Vol $0
Spread 5.9%
Agg
4.4%↑ +0.4%
P
7.4%
K
1.5%
DFDavid Fincher
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -6.5%
K
2.5%
OWOlivia Wilde
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.3%↑ +0.2%
P
1.3%
SSSteven Spielberg
Vol $0
Spread 1.3%
Agg
1.2%↓ -5.9%
P
1.8%
K
0.5%
AHAndrew Haigh
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -6.5%
K
0.5%
DBDanny Boyle
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -6.5%
K
0.5%
JCJoel Coen
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -6.5%
K
0.5%
NHJNa Hong-jin
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -6.5%
K
0.5%
TITie
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.5%
K
0.5%
BTBassam Tariq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↑ +0.2%
P
0.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CN Christopher Nolan | 60.0% ↑ +27.0% | 2.0% | $207 |
Kalshi
60.0%
|
Polymarket
58.0%
|
DV Denis Villeneuve | 21.0% ↑ +7.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
21.0%
|
JF Jordan Firstman | 7.7% ↑ +7.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
7.7%
|
JE Jesse Eisenberg | 7.2% ↑ +1.7% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
7.2%
|
LO Lance Oppenheim | 6.8% ↑ +3.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
6.8%
|
AGI Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 6.0% ↓ -4.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
6.0%
|
MM Martin McDonagh | 6.0% ↓ -12.5% | 1.0% | $2 |
Kalshi
6.0%
|
Polymarket
7.0%
|
AS Aaron Sorkin | 5.5% ↑ +0.9% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
5.5%
|
DOR David O. Russell | 5.4% ↑ +5.1% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
5.4%
|
PF Peter Farrelly | 5.3% ↑ +0.6% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
5.3%
|
PLC Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 4.4% ↑ +0.4% | 5.9% | $0 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
7.4%
|
DF David Fincher | 2.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OW Olivia Wilde | 1.3% ↑ +0.2% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.3%
|
SS Steven Spielberg | 1.2% ↓ -5.9% | 1.3% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
1.8%
|
AH Andrew Haigh | 0.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
DB Danny Boyle | 0.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
JC Joel Coen | 0.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
NHJ Na Hong-jin | 0.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
TI Tie | 0.5% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
BT Bassam Tariq | 0.4% ↑ +0.2% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
2027 Oscar for Best Actress Award Predictions
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JMJulianne Moore
Vol $235
Spread 7.5%
Agg
62.5%↑ +35.5%
P
62.5%
U
55.0%
INInde Navarrette
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
18.0%↑ +1.5%
P
18.0%
U
18.0%
SHSandra Hüller
Vol $0
Spread 8.5%
Agg
9.4%↓ -6.6%
K
10.5%
P
8.3%
U
2.0%
RRRenate Reinsve
Vol $0
Spread 8.0%
Agg
8.8%↓ -13.8%
P
10.0%
K
7.5%
U
2.0%
AHAnne Hathaway
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.0%↓ -26.0%
U
6.0%
SWShailene Woodley
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -19.0%
U
4.0%
RMRuth Madeley
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.3%↓ -2.3%
P
2.3%
MMMikey Madison
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -29.0%
U
2.0%
PCPenélope Cruz
Vol $0
Spread 0.5%
Agg
1.5%↓ -4.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.5%
VEVirginie Efira
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -3.0%
P
1.5%
CECynthia Erivo
Vol $0
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -7.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
JCJoan Collins
Vol $0
Spread 1.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -5.0%
U
2.0%
K
1.0%
SJScarlett Johansson
Vol $0
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.7%↓ -5.4%
U
2.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
DJDakota Johnson
Vol $0
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -5.5%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
KDKirsten Dunst
Vol $0
Spread 2.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -5.5%
U
3.0%
K
0.5%
NPNatalie Portman
Vol $0
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.5%↓ -5.5%
U
2.0%
K
0.5%
TITie
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -1.0%
K
0.5%
SOSophie Okonedo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -5.1%
P
0.4%
RBRachel Brosnahan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -5.1%
P
0.4%
LSLéa Seydoux
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -4.2%
P
0.3%
MWMichelle Williams
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -2.3%
P
0.3%
Recent Oscar news and how prediction markets moved
Listed latest first, the table pairs credible reporting with DeFi Rate’s tracking of Kalshi’s first-party hourly candlesticks. Completed entries measure movement from the last traded Yes price before the report’s UTC date to the last price available through roughly 48 hours later. For breaking developments, the table may show the preceding 24- or 48-hour move and identify it as early positioning. Thin trading can leave prices unchanged, and timing does not prove that a report caused the full move.
| Date | Recent development | Tracked Kalshi movement | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3, 2026 | Deadline reported that Wild Horse Nine received a rapturous welcome after its first Venice press screening. | Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 71% → 80.5% over the preceding 48 hours (79.5% → 80.5% over 24 hours); Martin McDonagh for Best Director: 2% → 6.5% | Most of the film’s nomination rise occurred before the press screening. The early reception supports its awards positioning, but the timing does not prove that reviews caused the move. |
| Sept. 3, 2026 | Variety highlighted the developing Oscar conversation around John Malkovich following the Wild Horse Nine press screening. | John Malkovich for Best Actor: 21.5% → 18% over the preceding 48 hours | Malkovich’s actor market had not yet confirmed the positive coverage. The report was published shortly before the latest snapshot, leaving limited time for a measurable reaction. |
| Aug. 14, 2026 | AwardsWatch’s pre-festival forecast kept Wild Horse Nine among the developing Best Picture contenders. | Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 73% → 71% (briefly 74%) | The nomination contract edged two points lower over the measurement window. |
| Aug. 10, 2026 | Variety reported that Netflix was moving Here Comes the Flood toward a 2027 release, which would take it out of this Oscar cycle if the schedule holds. | No directly comparable contract in DeFi Rate’s tracked Kalshi feed | DeFi Rate did not assign movement in another film’s contract to this scheduling report. |
| July 22, 2026 | Vanity Fair assessed The Odyssey as a new front-runner and estimated a potential 13 to 15 nominations. | The Odyssey Best Picture winner: 49% → 54% (briefly 55%) | The winner contract gained five points over the measurement window. |
Latest Oscar nomination updates
The Oscar race is beginning to narrow now that the Venice Film Festival is underway and several previously unseen contenders are facing critics.
The Odyssey has made the clearest move. Christopher Nolan’s film arrived in theaters in July with the kind of reviews and commercial attention that can sustain a long awards campaign. Matt Damon is now firmly in the Best Actor discussion, while Nolan and the film are expected to contend in Best Picture, directing and several craft categories. Vanity Fair’s assessment of the film’s Oscar prospects put its potential haul as high as 13 to 15 nominations. Prediction markets draw a clear distinction between making the field and winning: at the latest Aug. 16 update, The Odyssey was priced at 94.1% to earn a Best Picture nomination and 57.3% to win Best Picture. Nolan stood at 66.0% for Best Director, while Damon was at 28.5% for Best Actor.
One expected contender, meanwhile, appears to have fallen off this year’s calendar. Netflix has moved Here Comes the Flood, starring Denzel Washington, Robert Pattinson and Daisy Edgar-Jones, toward a 2027 release, according to Variety. If that schedule holds, the film will miss this Oscar cycle and Washington will lose what had been one of his possible routes into the Best Actor field.
Venice has started to clarify the field. Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine received an enthusiastic early response after its Sept. 3 press screening, intensifying the awards conversation around McDonagh and John Malkovich. The film’s Best Picture nomination and McDonagh’s director markets had strengthened over the preceding 48 hours, although much of the film’s rise came before the screening and Malkovich’s actor price had not followed the positive coverage.
Opening-night film Ink also drew favorable notices and a reported five-minute ovation. Its Kalshi Best Picture nomination odds nevertheless finished slightly lower over the first 24 hours, an early reminder that positive festival reactions do not always produce an immediate market increase.
Pattinson has an unusually crowded awards season even without Here Comes the Flood. He appears in Primetime, The Drama, The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three, leaving open both lead and supporting possibilities. Primetime has begun its Venice publicity cycle, but its first meaningful critical reaction is still needed before treating it as another serious campaign.
The picture should become considerably clearer as Venice continues and Telluride and Toronto add more premieres. For now, The Odyssey remains the established benchmark, Wild Horse Nine has strengthened its early awards case, one anticipated Denzel Washington contender appears to be out, and much of the field still has to be tested.
How to bet on the Oscars
You don’t have to wait until Oscar night to trade on the awards. Prediction markets open months in advance, with prices moving as films premiere, reviews arrive, nominations are announced and other awards begin to establish the favorites.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini are among the best prediction apps where traders can follow entertainment and awards markets. Availability varies by platform and location, so the specific Oscar contracts you can trade will depend on what is currently listed.
Oscar contracts sit within the broader culture and entertainment prediction markets category. Similar markets cover television and reality competitions, including Big Brother.
The basic idea is pretty simple. Think of it like this: if a “Best Picture winner: Oppenheimer” contract is trading at 40 cents, the market is implying roughly a 40% chance that it wins. If you buy 100 of those contracts, you’re paying $40 in total. If Oppenheimer actually wins, each contract pays out $1, so your $40 turns into $100. If it doesn’t win, the contracts expire worthless and you lose your $40. You don’t have to wait until the Oscars either—you can sell your position anytime. So if the price jumps from 40 cents to 55 cents after a strong awards showing, your 100 contracts would now be worth $55, letting you sell early and lock in a $15 profit. Our prediction market fees and calculators can help you estimate trading costs and potential returns before placing a position.
Kalshi and Polymarket offer Oscar-related prediction markets that go well beyond simply picking the eventual Best Picture winner. Traders can take positions on who will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and supporting categories, as well as eventual winners, with additional markets covering areas such as screenplay, cinematography, visual effects and original score. If you’re new to Kalshi, you can also check our Kalshi promo code article for any current sign-up offers and bonuses before getting started. You can also compare current offers on our prediction market promos page.
Polymarket’s Oscar markets similarly cover nominations and winners. It also lists broader questions, including which film will receive the most nominations. That creates opportunities to trade the race well before the Academy announces its nominees.
Gemini has also expanded into prediction markets, giving users another place to follow event contracts as its market catalog develops. No active 2027 Oscar contracts were listed when we checked on August 16, 2026, and availability can change, so check the current contracts before trading.
For nomination markets in particular, timing matters. A film trading at 35 cents before Venice could move sharply after its premiere, just as a delayed release, poor reviews or a category change can quickly send a candidate lower. The prices on this page track those changes as the Oscar race develops.
Oscar odds FAQ
The Odyssey is the early Best Picture favorite. Christopher Nolan’s film has separated itself from the field since its July release and was trading around a 50% chance of winning Best Picture on Kalshi in late July. Dune: Part Three and Digger were among the films trailing it. Kalshi reported on the early Best Picture market after The Odyssey opened in theaters.
The race remains unusually early. Several expected contenders have not premiered, giving the fall festivals plenty of opportunity to change the order.
The Odyssey is already being treated by prediction markets as a near-certain Best Picture nominee. Kalshi traders had put its nomination probability at 99% in late July, compared with 91% for Project Hail Mary and 84% for Dune: Part Three, according to our tracking data.
That is different from its odds of winning Best Picture. A film can have a very high probability of making the field while remaining a much longer shot to ultimately win the award.
On a prediction market, the price comes from traders buying and selling contracts. A Yes contract trading at 62 cents can be read as roughly a 62% implied probability of that outcome occurring.
Those prices can change throughout awards season. A strong festival premiere may push a film higher; poor reviews or a release delay can have the opposite effect. Later in the season, nominations from the major guilds and results from precursor awards give traders considerably more information to work with.
Oscar odds respond to new information. Early in the season, that can mean a film premiere, reviews, a distribution decision or an actor being moved from a lead category to supporting. Later, the major critics’ awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and guild awards provide more evidence about how the race is developing.
The moves can be substantial because Oscar markets begin trading well before Academy voters cast their final ballots.
Yes. Prediction markets offer contracts on nominations as well as winners. For example, Kalshi has markets asking whether individual films will receive a Best Picture nomination, while Polymarket lists nomination markets across Best Picture and acting categories.
This means you can trade on whether a film or performer makes the final field without having to predict who eventually wins the Oscar.
DeFi Rate tracks Oscars odds by aggregating live prices from prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. These platforms update continuously as traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes, including nominations and winners.
We convert those market prices into implied probabilities and standardize them across platforms so users can compare a single, unified view of the race. The odds on this page are updated as markets move, allowing you to see how sentiment shifts throughout awards season in real time.
The Academy has scheduled nominations for the 99th Academy Awards for January 22, 2027. Nomination markets will settle once the Academy announces the official nominees, subject to each platform’s individual market rules.
The Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 14, 2027.
