UFC Fight Night 268 kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET as former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno takes on Lone’er Kavanagh in a five-round main event from Arena CDMX in Mexico City. The fights will be available on Kalshi with new accounts able to collect a bonus in advance by using the Kalshi promo code.
Moreno fighting in front of his home crowd, a stacked co-main between Marlon Vera and rising bantamweight David Martinez, and 13 fights total — it’s one of the more loaded Fight Night cards of the year. New users still have time to sign up with the Kalshi promo code DEFI before the main card and get $10 free after just $10 in trades. This offer expires at midnight.
Trade $10, Get $10 Free
CODE: DEFI
Best offer for traders right now
Kalshi UFC promo code DEFI
Getting your $10 bonus takes a few minutes:
- Sign up: Visit Kalshi and click “Sign Up.” You can register with Google, Apple, or email. Enter promo code DEFI during registration.
- Verify your identity: Provide your date of birth, phone number, and location. Kalshi may request your SSN and a photo ID (driver’s license or passport) with a selfie. This is standard KYC verification across all regulated exchanges.
- Deposit funds: Once in your Kalshi wallet, click “Deposit Cash” and choose a payment method. Kalshi accepts debit cards, bank transfers, crypto, PayPal, Venmo, Google Pay, and Apple Pay. Minimum deposit to activate the bonus is $1.
- Trade $10 in contracts: Place your first trades. Once you hit $10 in trading volume, your $10 bonus is credited. UFC markets are a natural starting point.
This Kalshi welcome promo is open to all 50 states, however the promo is not open to residents in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio. Terms apply. Must be 18+.
UFC Fight Night 268 Kalshi odds
Moreno enters as the favorite but this isn’t the layup it looks like on paper. He’s 2-3 in his last five, including a second-round TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira in December. Kavanagh stepped in on three weeks’ notice after Asu Almabayev withdrew with a hand injury — his first five-round fight, first main event, and first time facing a former champion.
| Market | Moreno | Kavanagh |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | ~67¢ (-205) | ~37¢ (+170) |
| Over/Under 4.5 rounds | Over ~58¢ (-140) | Under ~45¢ (+110) |
Contracts settle at $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. A 67¢ Moreno contract pays $1 if he wins — roughly a 49% return on a correct pick. A 37¢ Kavanagh contract pays $1 if the Englishman pulls off the upset — a 170% return.
Resolution is based on the official result from the sanctioning body (in this case, the UFC). Kalshi also uses ESPN, Sherdog, MMAFighting, and MMAJunkie as source agencies. Payouts typically process within minutes of the official result.
Main card breakdown
Tonight’s main card is six fights deep. Kalshi has contracts on every bout, including fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and round of victory markets. Here’s the full lineup:
Moreno vs. Kavanagh (flyweight, five rounds) — Moreno (23-9-2) is the first Mexican-born UFC champion and holds the all-time flyweight record for significant strikes landed (1,229). Kavanagh (9-1) is a five-time K-1 kickboxing world champion with rapid hands and spinning techniques, but his lone loss — a second-round KO by Charles Johnson in August — raised questions about his durability. Four of Moreno’s last five fights have gone the distance, which is why the over 4.5 rounds is getting action.
Vera vs. Martinez (bantamweight) — The co-main might be the most compelling fight on the card. Marlon “Chito” Vera is a 25-fight UFC veteran and former title challenger on a three-fight losing streak. David Martinez (13-1, nine straight wins) is already a top-10 bantamweight after just two UFC appearances — 10 of his 13 wins have come by KO/TKO. Martinez is a sizable favorite at around -290, but Vera has pulled off upsets before — he owns knockout wins over Sean O’Malley and Dominick Cruz.
Zellhuber vs. Green (lightweight) — Daniel Zellhuber, a local fan favorite, is a massive -500 favorite. He was CBS Sports’ 2024 Fight of the Year recipient and looks to rebound after back-to-back defeats. King Green (33-17-1) is a live dog at +380 with eight UFC bonus awards on his resume — the type of veteran who tends to make things unpredictable.
Chairez vs. Bunes (flyweight) — Edgar Chairez (-325) is the hometown pick against Felipe Bunes (+260) in a flyweight scrap.
Rodriguez vs. Borjas (flyweight) — Imanol Rodriguez (-455) makes his UFC debut after a highlight-reel KO on Dana White’s Contender Series. One to watch.
Luna vs. Pacheco (bantamweight) — Undefeated Santiago Luna (-650) opens the main card.
How to use your $10 Kalshi bonus on UFC Fight Night
Once you’ve signed up with promo code DEFI and deposited funds, head to the Sports section on Kalshi. UFC markets are listed under the MMA/UFC tab, with fight winner contracts for each bout on the card.
With contracts starting as low as 1¢, the $10 bonus gives you room to spread across multiple fights. A few ways to play it tonight:
- Pick the main event winner — Moreno at ~67¢ or Kavanagh at ~37¢
- Play the co-main upset — Vera at ~26¢ offers a significant return if the veteran pulls one more out
- Trade the distance — Moreno’s recent fights have consistently gone to the cards; the over 4.5 rounds is trading near coin-flip territory
- Trade live — Kalshi offers in-fight trading, so you can buy and sell positions as the rounds play out
Kalshi typically issues correct UFC payouts within minutes of the official result.
Where to watch UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card following at 8 p.m. ET. All 13 bouts stream live and on demand exclusively on Paramount+.
New to prediction markets? Our Kalshi review breaks down how it works, including how UFC markets work, using the Kalshi promo code, and deposit options. For a broader look at where to trade MMA, see our sports prediction markets comparison.
Valid for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (February 28, 2026); terms apply. Prediction market trading involves risk. Trade responsibly.
