US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Prediction Markets Tighten On Michigan Democratic Senate Primary as Stevens Pushes El-Sayed in Tossup State

Abdul El-Sayed still leads Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary race, but his peak prediction market chances of 87% have dropped down into the 60s as Rep. Haley Stevens closes the gap....

Pat Evans

July 16, 2026

South Dakota GOP Governor Primary Prediction Markets

US Elections

South Dakota Set For First-Ever Governor Runoff as Prediction Markets Favor the Incumbent

South Dakota is heading to its first-ever primary runoff for governor, with Gov. Larry Rhoden facing businessman Toby Doeden after neither cracked the threshold on June 2. Kalshi still...

Pat Evans

July 15, 2026

South Carolina GOP Senate Prediction Markets

US Elections

Fry Surges in South Carolina GOP Senate Scramble as Prediction Markets Keep Republicans Favored

With Gov. Henry McMaster appointing Lindsey Graham’s sister to the interim seat, the real battle now shifts to the Aug. 11 special primary, where Russell Fry has opened as the clear...

Pat Evans

July 14, 2026

South Carolina senate prediction markets

US Elections

Graham’s Death Triggers South Carolina GOP Scramble, Prediction Markets Still See Red Senate Seat

Lindsey Graham’s death has set off two overlapping races in South Carolina, one for an interim Senate appointment and another for the November special election. Prediction markets still...

Pat Evans

July 13, 2026

US Elections

Platner Exit Scrambles Maine Senate Race, Prediction Markets Still Give Democrats Narrow Edge

Democrats still hold a slight lead in the race for a Maine Senate seat on prediction markets as the party rushes to find a replacement for Graham Platner against Sen. Susan Collins. Troy...

Pat Evans

July 10, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Put Donalds on Track for Easy Florida Governor Win

Prediction markets are heavily favoring Rep. Byron Donalds in the Florida governor Republican primary, with traders pricing him as the clear frontrunner over a quiet Republican field.The...

Pat Evans

July 9, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Favor Hong in Wisconsin Governor Primary as Progressive Wave Faces a Redder State Test

Francesca Hong is emerging as the Democratic frontrunner in Wisconsin’s governor primary, but unlike the progressive wins in New York and Colorado, the Badger State is a battleground...

Pat Evans

July 8, 2026

US Elections

Platner’s Scandal Upends Maine Senate Race, But Prediction Markets Still Favor Democrats

The Maine Senate race received bombshell news Monday, but prediction markets for Senate party winner have barely moved off...

Pat Evans

July 7, 2026

El-Sayed Michigan Senate prediction markets

US Elections

AOC Boosts El-Sayed on Prediction Markets as Michigan Senate Primary Clears Up

Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate bid got a major lift from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement, while Mallory McMorrow’s exit further narrowed the Democratic primary field ahead of...

Pat Evans

July 6, 2026

US Elections

Senate Control in Play as Polls Tighten, Prediction Markets Send Mixed Messages

A new round of polling shows the 2026 Senate map is genuinely up for grabs, with Democrats putting several GOP-held seats in play and both prediction markets still giving Republicans a...

Pat Evans

July 2, 2026

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