US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

California Governor Race Tops $15M in Trading, Hinges on Who Survives June Primary

The 2026 California primary race for governor is wide open and already drawing serious money on prediction markets. Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited and eyeing a 2028 presidential...

Pat Evans

April 10, 2026

Alaska Senate and Governor races fuel trading surge

US Elections

Peltola Turns Alaska into Senate Battleground as Governor Race Drives Prediction Market Activity

Alaska is usually a footnote on the national map during election seasons, but in 2026 prediction markets are treating it like something closer to a marquee race. With Mary Peltola...

Pat Evans

April 10, 2026

Bondi exit spurs new Cabinet shakeup predictions

US Elections

Traders Predicted Bondi Exit, Now Pricing Next Cabinet Shakeups

Prediction markets are now pricing the next Trump Cabinet exits and new Attorney General after Kalshi and Polymarket traders accurately predicted the Bondi exit....

Pat Evans

April 7, 2026

US Elections

Georgia House Runoff Markets Signal GOP Lock, Focus Shifts to Margin

Georgia voters head to the polls in the GA-14 runoff to elect Marjorie Taylor Greene's replacement. Prediction markets price a GOP lock, with the real question now shifting to...

Pat Evans

April 7, 2026

US Elections

Louisiana Senate Race Gets Messy But Traders Signal Safe GOP Hold

Louisiana’s 2026 Republican Senate primary is one of the most politically charged races in the country, yet prediction markets are treating it like background noise so far. Incumbent...

Pat Evans

April 3, 2026

US Elections

Georgia Could Swing the Senate, but Early Consensus Leans Blue

The Georgia Senate seat could be one of the Democrat's most vulnerable in November, but the GOP primary is fairly quiet so far on prediction...

Pat Evans

March 30, 2026

Maine Senate primary heating up at prediction markets

US Elections

Maine Senate Primary Odds Tilt to Platner as Traders Eye Key Senate Flip Opportunity

Prediction markets show Graham Platner at ~80% odds to win Maine’s Democratic Senate primary, with over $4M in volume. Traders see the race as a key pathway to a Democratic Senate...

Pat Evans

March 27, 2026

US Elections

Democrats 85% to Flip the House in 2026 Midterms, Senate Still a Toss-Up

Prediction markets are forecasting an 85% chance of House control flipping to Democrats in the 2026 midterms, with the Senate left as a messy, seat‑by‑seat...

Pat Evans

March 24, 2026

Texas Senate Republican seat up for grabs

US Elections

Texas Senate GOP Race Tightens as Trump Skips Key Endorsement Deadline

Texas Republican Senate runoff odds hold steady across prediction markets — Cornyn leads at 60–62%, Paxton trails at 39–40% — as traders weigh Trump's endorsement fallout and...

Pat Evans

March 18, 2026

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