US Elections

Tracking prediction market coverage as it relates to US elections and midterms.

US Elections

Florida Primaries Are Loaded With Prediction Markets, but Only a Few Races Are Actually Getting Serious Money

Florida’s August 18 primaries feature markets ranging from Rep. Byron Donalds’ near-certain governor nomination to a progressive test in South Florida, but liquidity is concentrating in...

Pat Evans

August 17, 2026

South Carolina Senate runoff prediction markets

US Elections

Trump-Backed Graham Nordone Faces South Carolina Senate Runoff Test, Prediction Markets Pile Behind Her

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone entered South Carolina’s Republican Senate special primary as the heavy market favorite, but failed to clear 50% and now faces Rep. Ralph Norman in an August...

Pat Evans

August 14, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Nail Minnesota Primaries, Backing Flanagan And Tafoya In A Progressive Wave Test

Prediction markets correctly picked Minnesota’s major primary winners, including progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, rebounding after a...

Pat Evans

August 12, 2026

US Elections

Prediction Markets Miss Again as Crowley Upsets Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary

Francesca Hong entered Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary trading at 96% on prediction markets. She lost anyway. David Crowley’s narrow upset is the sharpest rebuke yet to the idea...

Pat Evans

August 12, 2026

Hong Wisconsin governor prediction markets

US Elections

Hong Heads Into Wisconsin Governor Primary as Near Prediction Markets Lock, but Her November Problem Is Already Showing

Francesca Hong is trading at 95% to win Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket, putting her at the front of another progressive-wave test Tuesday....

Pat Evans

August 11, 2026

prediction markets senate control 2026 midterms

US Elections

Individual Prediction Markets Contracts Show Democrats With Path To Senate Control

Republicans remain slight favorites to hold the Senate in the headline market, but the state-by-state picture is moving in Democrats’ direction. Kalshi gives the GOP a 54% chance to keep...

Pat Evans

August 10, 2026

Minnesota midterm primaries prediction markets

US Elections

Minnesota Primaries Put Progressive Wave to Another Test, Even as Prediction Markets Hold Firm on Flanagan

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan heads into Tuesday’s Minnesota Democratic Senate primary as the prediction-market favorite, trading at 72% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. But with the latest...

Pat Evans

August 10, 2026

Talarico Paxton Texas Senate prediction markets

US Elections

Talarico Draws Even With Paxton in Texas Senate Prediction Markets as New Poll Flips the Race

James Talarico has pulled even with Republican Ken Paxton on the Texas Senate prediction markets after a new poll showed the Democrat ahead by four points. Kalshi briefly priced Talarico at...

Pat Evans

August 10, 2026

2028 Republican presidential nominee prediction markets

US Elections

Trump’s Vance Talk Sends 2028 GOP Markets Further Toward a Two-Man Race With Rubio

Reports that President Donald Trump privately told donors “we need to elect JD” have added fresh momentum to an already Vance-heavy 2028 market. Vance leads Marco Rubio 42% to 23% on...

Pat Evans

August 7, 2026

Tennessee Governor Marsha Blackburn prediction markets

US Elections

Prediction Markets Nailed Blackburn’s Tennessee Governor Primary Win as Polls Pointed to a Tight Race

Marsha Blackburn easily won Tennessee’s Republican governor primary, confirming the forecasts from Kalshi and Polymarket, which had priced her near 96% heading into Election...

Pat Evans

August 7, 2026

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