Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$4.9M
Kalshi
28.2%
Polymarket
69.4%
Polymarket US
2.4%
Active Markets
3,704
Kalshi
3,318
Polymarket
362
Polymarket US
24
Open Interest
Approx. OI
$4.2M
Kalshi
β
Polymarket
$3.5M
Polymarket US
$669.2K
Top Market (24H)
$1.1M
Fed Decision in July?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed Decision in July?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
7.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
80
$80
73.0%
85
$85
70.0%
75
$75
33.0%
90
$90
32.0%
95
$95
18.0%
100
$100
9.0%
70
$70
8.0%
105
$105
6.0%
65
$65
3.0%
110
$110
3.0%
60
$60
1.0%
130
$130
1.0%
120
$120
1.0%
115
$115
1.0%
55
$55
1.0%
10
$10
1.0%
50
$50
1.0%
40
$40
1.0%
45
$45
1.0%
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
MR
Maintain rate
94.0%
H2
Hike 25bps
7.0%
C2
Cut 25bps
1.0%
H2
Hike >25bps
1.0%
C2
Cut >25bps
1.0%
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
A35
Above 3.50%
100.0%
A27
Above 2.75%
100.0%
A32
Above 3.25%
100.0%
A30
Above 3.00%
100.0%
A37
Above 3.75%
7.0%
A40
Above 4.00%
1.0%
A42
Above 4.25%
1.0%
A45
Above 4.50%
1.0%
A50
Above 5.00%
1.0%
A47
Above 4.75%
1.0%
A52
Above 5.25%
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93%
$3.0M
$568.0K
Jul 28
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
$80
73%
$714.9K
$0
Jul 31
Active
3
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
Maintain rate
94%
$291.5K
β
Oct 28
Active
4
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
Above 3.50%
100%
$185.9K
β
Aug 5
Active
5
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
85%
$169.1K
$1.2M
Dec 30
Active
6
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 21, 2026?
> 70.99
100%
$137.6K
β
Jul 28
Active
7
Fed Rate Cut in 2026?
No
82%
$72.6K
$13.8K
Jan 14
Active
8
Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
55%
$70.3K
$24.5K
Sep 15
Active
9
US gas prices tomorrow?
> $4.000
100%
$63.2K
β
Jul 28
Active
10
Crude Oil all time high by…?
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31
14%
$54.1K
$80.8K
Dec 30
Active
11
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
59%
$46.0K
$365.6K
Dec 8
Active
12
Fed Decision in July
No
99%
$42.3K
$244.3K
Aug 12
Active
13
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
71%
$38.3K
β
Sep 29
Active
14
Bank of Russia decision in July?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting
56%
$33.8K
$531
Jul 23
Closing Soon
15
US gas prices this week
> $4.000
100%
$28.7K
β
Aug 3
Active
16
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
49%
$24.8K
$4.4K
Dec 8
Active
17
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting
100%
$21.2K
$1.6K
Jul 22
Closing Soon
18
Copper price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Above 5.80
100%
$20.4K
β
Jul 28
Active
19
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.0%
99%
$18.9K
β
Nov 11
Active
20
WTI price on July 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Above $81.09
100%
$18.5K
β
Jul 27
Closing Soon
21
Gas prices in the US in Jul 2026?
> $3.70
100%
$18.0K
β
Aug 30
Active
22
Brent crude oil price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $83
98%
$17.2K
β
Jul 28
Active
23
WTI price on July 20, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
> $81.09
99%
$15.9K
β
Jul 27
Closing Soon
24
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Will the Fed PauseβPauseβPause in the next three decisions (JunβJulβSep)
56%
$14.5K
$282
Sep 15
Active
25
Fed decisions (JulβOct)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (JulβSepβOct)
47%
$14.3K
$0
Oct 28
Active
26
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 24, 2026?
$80.00β$80.99
9%
$13.6K
β
Jul 31
Active
27
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
16%
$13.5K
$88.5K
Jun 16
Closed
28
Natural gas price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 2.805
73%
$13.0K
β
Jul 28
Active
29
July Inflation US – Annual
annual inflation
45%
$12.4K
$0
Aug 11
Active
30
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
33%
$10.3K
β
Jan 7
Active
31
Brent crude oil price on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $74.99
99%
$9.9K
β
Jul 31
Active
32
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31
92%
$9.1K
$0
Jul 31
Active
33
Bank of Japan Decision in September?
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting
81%
$8.0K
$0
Sep 18
Active
34
CPI in July
> -0.4%
99%
$7.9K
β
Nov 11
Active
35
Avocado advertised prices this week
Above $0.80
97%
$6.8K
β
Jul 31
Active
36
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 21, 2026?
> 4.15%
100%
$6.4K
β
Jul 22
Closing Soon
37
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 22, 2026?
Above $74.49
98%
$6.3K
β
Jul 29
Active
38
Fed Decision in October?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
63%
$5.7K
$0
Oct 28
Active
39
Next Fed rate hike?
Dec 31, 2027
76%
$4.2K
β
Jul 1
Active
40
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
Above 2.2%
59%
$3.9K
β
Dec 17
Active
41
Brent crude oil price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $50.99
100%
$3.8K
β
Aug 7
Active
42
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
the UKβs 2026 inflation
27%
$3.7K
$736
Jan 19
Active
43
US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 7/24
Above 1000
100%
$3.6K
β
Jul 31
Active
44
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
> 0.0%
100%
$3.4K
β
Oct 29
Active
45
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
Chinaβs 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
88%
$3.2K
$91.7K
Jan 30
Closed
46
CPI YoY in July
No
87%
$3.0K
$973
Aug 26
Active
47
2026 World GDP Growth
world GDP growth
32%
$3.0K
$1.3K
Jan 14
Active
48
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
77%
$2.9K
β
Jan 7
Active
49
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
47%
$2.6K
β
Jan 6
Active
50
Recession before 2027?
No
88%
$2.5K
β
Feb 7
Active
51
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026
74%
$2.2K
$386
Jul 22
Closing Soon
52
Bank of Russia rate decision in July
Maintain rate
46%
$2.1K
β
Jul 31
Active
53
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
Maintain rate
55%
$1.8K
β
Dec 16
Active
54
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026
40%
$1.8K
$0
Jan 22
Active
55
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/17-7/24)?
No
66%
$1.7K
β
Jul 24
Closing Soon
56
US recession by end of 2026?
No
88%
$1.6K
$285.5K
Jan 30
Active
57
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No
81%
$1.5K
β
Jan 1
Active
58
Copper price on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $5.51
99%
$1.4K
β
Jul 31
Active
59
Recession in γ
€2027?
No
57%
$1.4K
β
Feb 7
Active
60
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
13%
$1.3K
β
Jan 1
Active
61
Natural gas price on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 1.999
100%
$1.3K
β
Jul 31
Active
62
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Will the Fed PauseβPauseβPause in the next three decisions (AprβJunβJul)
93%
$1.3K
$2.3K
Jul 28
Active
63
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
> 2.75%
100%
$1.3K
β
Sep 23
Active
64
US SPR level for the week ending July 17, 2026
Above 310M
99%
$1.3K
β
Jul 29
Active
65
What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
15%
$1.3K
β
Jul 30
Active
66
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026
71%
$1.0K
$1.7K
Jan 30
Active
67
Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $1.499
100%
$995
β
Aug 7
Active
68
10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 21, 2026?
> 4.46%
99%
$969
β
Jul 22
Closing Soon
69
2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 21, 2026?
Above 4.25%
16%
$955
β
Jul 22
Closing Soon
70
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
No
74%
$928
$3.8K
Dec 30
Active
71
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fedβs upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027
23%
$926
$147.7K
Dec 30
Active
72
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
> 2.1%
100%
$815
β
Aug 19
Active
73
How low will the S&P get this year?
No
69%
$783
β
Jan 7
Active
74
Unemployment in July
Above 3.7%
99%
$749
β
Nov 6
Active
75
US GDP growth in Q2 2026
Yes
67%
$731
$3.4K
Aug 13
Active
76
S&P close price end of 2026?
8000β8199.99
13%
$722
β
Jan 7
Active
77
Bank of Japan Decision in July?
No change in Bank of Japanβs interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
99%
$709
$810
Jul 30
Active
78
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026
12%
$703
$111.2K
Jan 9
Closed
79
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
Yes
55%
$631
$1.6K
Dec 30
Active
80
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
7%
$622
β
Jan 8
Active