Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$5.8M
K: 24.7%
P: 75.3%
U: 0.0%
Active Markets
4,685
Across all platforms
Open Interest
$34.9M
Partial
Approx. OI
Top Market (24H)
$674.0K
Fed decision in April?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed decision in April?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
85
$85
86.0%
90
$90
69.0%
95
$95
56.0%
80
$80
54.0%
100
$100
36.0%
75
$75
28.0%
105
$105
22.0%
70
$70
13.0%
110
$110
13.0%
115
$115
11.0%
120
$120
8.0%
125
$125
5.0%
60
$60
4.0%
130
$130
3.0%
140
$140
3.0%
150
$150
2.0%
200
$200
1.0%
170
$170
1.0%
160
$160
1.0%
50
$50
1.0%
20
$20
1.0%
40
$40
1.0%
30
$30
1.0%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
KW
Kevin Warsh
94.0%
JS
Judy Shelton
1.0%
MB
Michelle Bowman
1.0%
RR
Rick Reider
1.0%
SM
Stephen Miran
1.0%
KH
Kevin Hassett
1.0%
SB
Scott Bessent
1.0%
JP
Jerome Powell
1.0%
CW
Christopher Waller
1.0%
Fed Decision in June?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
93.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
4.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
2.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting
2.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed decision in April?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99%
$2.3M
$17.0M
Apr 28
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
$85
86%
$1.2M
$8.8M
Apr 29
Active
3
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$660.1K
$5.1M
Oct 30
Active
4
Fed Decision in June?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
93%
$203.2K
$980.6K
Jun 16
Active
5
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
95%
$152.2K
—
Sep 29
Active
6
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
35%
$144.0K
$967.2K
Dec 30
Active
7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$80
75%
$116.8K
$2.4M
Jun 30
Active
8
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Maintain rate
99%
$98.5K
—
Jul 29
Active
9
Bank of Japan Decision in April?
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
96%
$74.2K
$118.0K
Apr 27
Closing Soon
10
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
30%
$60.5K
$26.1K
Dec 8
Active
11
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
65%
$48.2K
$60.9K
Jan 30
Closed
12
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 24, 2026?
>$90.99
40%
$41.6K
—
May 1
Active
13
Gas prices in the US in Apr 2026?
> $3.70
100%
$35.1K
—
May 7
Active
14
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 21, 2026?
$77+
98%
$30.2K
—
Apr 28
Active
15
Uber Trips in Q1?
Above 4.0 billion
3%
$20.1K
—
Jul 31
Active
16
What will Powell say during his April press conference?
No
94%
$18.9K
—
Apr 30
Active
17
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
79%
$17.7K
$113.1K
Jul 28
Active
18
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
3.6%
30%
$17.5K
—
Aug 11
Active
19
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting
81%
$17.0K
$18.6K
May 6
Active
20
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
Crude Oil all time high by April 30
4%
$15.4K
$99.1K
Apr 29
Active
21
Fed funds rate after Apr 2026 meeting?
Above 3.00%
100%
$13.6K
—
May 6
Active
22
US gas prices this week
> $3.880
95%
$12.6K
—
May 4
Active
23
US recession by end of 2026?
No
74%
$11.7K
$268.9K
Jan 30
Active
24
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
90%
$11.5K
—
Sep 16
Active
25
US gas prices on Apr 21, 2026
> $4.000
100%
$10.9K
—
Apr 28
Active
26
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
12%
$10.7K
—
Jan 8
Active
27
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
26%
$10.2K
—
Jan 1
Active
28
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?
June 30, 2026
90%
$10.0K
$148.5K
May 13
Active
29
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19
38%
$9.9K
$45.0K
Apr 18
Closed
30
What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing?
Inflation
98%
$9.6K
—
Apr 22
Closing Soon
31
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026
87%
$9.2K
$141.1K
Dec 30
Active
32
Brent crude oil price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $73.99
97%
$8.6K
—
May 1
Active
33
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
April 19, 2026
51%
$8.6K
$11.3K
Apr 18
Closed
34
Bank of England decision in April?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting
97%
$8.2K
$55.9K
Apr 29
Active
35
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
54%
$7.2K
—
Jan 7
Active
36
CPI in April
> -0.1%
99%
$6.8K
—
Aug 11
Active
37
Bank of Russia decision in April?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting
95%
$6.8K
$39.2K
Apr 23
Closing Soon
38
Bank of Japan rate decision in April
Maintain rate
97%
$6.3K
—
May 4
Active
39
Bank of Canada decision in April?
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting
99%
$6.0K
$21.6K
Apr 28
Active
40
Will gas hit __ by end of April?
$3.95
22%
$5.8K
$42.8K
Apr 29
Active
41
How low will oil (WTI) get by Apr 30, 2026?
$86
99%
$5.2K
—
May 7
Active
42
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
67%
$4.7K
$206.6K
Jun 16
Active
43
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30
25%
$4.6K
$18.9K
Apr 29
Active
44
Powell out as Chair?
No
99%
$3.9K
—
May 7
Active
45
Recession before 2027?
No
75%
$3.8K
—
Feb 7
Active
46
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
> 1.0%
87%
$3.7K
—
Jul 30
Active
47
People's Bank of China rate change in April?
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April
99%
$3.4K
$11.4K
Apr 29
Active
48
Brent crude oil price on Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $91
88%
$3.0K
—
Apr 28
Active
49
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30
39%
$3.0K
$26.3K
Apr 29
Active
50
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
18%
$2.9K
$19.3K
Dec 8
Active
51
Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.2%
99%
$2.9K
—
Aug 11
Active
52
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
62%
$2.8K
—
Jan 7
Active
53
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision
72%
$2.7K
$20.9K
Apr 28
Active
54
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No
86%
$2.6K
$171.6K
Dec 8
Active
55
Brent crude oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $80.99
91%
$2.5K
—
May 7
Active
56
Corn price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 442.99
98%
$2.5K
—
May 1
Active
57
What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference
98%
$2.3K
$24.7K
Apr 28
Active
58
US x Cuba economic deal by…?
June 30, 2026
38%
$2.0K
$30.7K
Jun 29
Active
59
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026
At least 185,000
96%
$1.9K
—
Apr 30
Active
60
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting
62%
$1.8K
$6.9K
Jun 10
Active
61
UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026
> 2.7%
97%
$1.8K
—
Apr 28
Active
62
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
Above 0.00%
95%
$1.8K
—
May 5
Active
63
US retail sales in March 2026
Above -0.2%
99%
$1.7K
—
Apr 28
Active
64
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,400 or above
65%
$1.6K
—
Jan 7
Active
65
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
No
76%
$1.6K
—
Jul 1
Active
66
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?
1
74%
$1.6K
—
May 6
Active
67
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,600–7,799
11%
$1.4K
—
Jan 7
Active
68
Largest Company end of May?
NVIDIA
96%
$1.4K
$2.5K
May 30
Active
69
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting
85%
$1.3K
$8.6K
Jun 15
Active
70
Jobs numbers in Apr 2026?
> -100,000
97%
$1.3K
—
Aug 7
Active
71
ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026
At least 49
93%
$1.2K
—
May 31
Active
72
Sugar price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 13.34
85%
$1.2K
—
May 1
Active
73
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
70%
$1.1K
$144.3K
Dec 30
Active
74
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31
74%
$1.0K
$36.8K
Dec 30
Active
75
Cocoa price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 3075.99
95%
$1.0K
—
May 1
Active
76
Bank of Russia rate decision in April
Cut 25bps
71%
$1.0K
—
May 1
Active
77
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Yes
84%
$1.0K
—
Mar 31
Active
78
Bank of Mexico rate decision in May
Maintain rate
78%
$1.0K
—
May 14
Active
79
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (4/17-4/24)?
Yes
55%
$1.0K
—
Jul 23
Active
80
Number of TSA passengers April 13 – April 19?
the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 – April 19
Outcome
$801
—
Apr 18
Closed
1
Fed decision in April?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99%
$38.7M
$17.0M
Apr 28
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
$85
86%
$9.9M
$8.8M
Apr 29
Active
3
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$5.3M
$5.1M
Oct 30
Active
4
Fed Decision in June?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
93%
$1.6M
$980.6K
Jun 16
Active
5
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
35%
$1.4M
$967.2K
Dec 30
Active
6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$80
75%
$1.3M
$2.4M
Jun 30
Active
7
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Maintain rate
99%
$777.4K
—
Jul 29
Active
8
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
95%
$724.4K
—
Sep 29
Active
9
Bank of Japan Decision in April?
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
96%
$275.3K
$118.0K
Apr 27
Closing Soon
10
Gas prices in the US in Apr 2026?
> $3.70
100%
$241.0K
—
May 7
Active
11
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
79%
$183.4K
$113.1K
Jul 28
Active
12
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
54%
$144.1K
—
Jan 7
Active
13
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)
99%
$139.9K
$39.7K
Apr 28
Active
14
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19
38%
$137.7K
$45.0K
Apr 18
Closed
15
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
30%
$131.9K
$26.1K
Dec 8
Active
16
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
65%
$128.0K
$60.9K
Jan 30
Closed
17
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)
93%
$127.4K
$19.3K
Jun 16
Active
18
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?
June 30, 2026
90%
$124.7K
$148.5K
May 13
Active
19
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026
87%
$124.5K
$141.1K
Dec 30
Active
20
Uber Trips in Q1?
Above 4.0 billion
3%
$115.3K
—
Jul 31
Active
21
Recession before 2027?
No
75%
$113.3K
—
Feb 7
Active
22
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
Crude Oil all time high by April 30
4%
$111.8K
$99.1K
Apr 29
Active
23
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?
April 12, 2026
Outcome
$110.7K
—
Apr 11
Closed
24
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 6-12)
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12
Outcome
$110.2K
—
Apr 11
Closed
25
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 24, 2026?
>$90.99
40%
$97.2K
—
May 1
Active
26
US recession by end of 2026?
No
74%
$77.1K
$268.9K
Jan 30
Active
27
CPI in April
> -0.1%
99%
$76.6K
—
Aug 11
Active
28
Bank of England decision in April?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting
97%
$74.7K
$55.9K
Apr 29
Active
29
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$67.1K
—
Jan 8
Active
30
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
90%
$64.7K
—
Sep 16
Active
31
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,600–7,799
11%
$61.2K
—
Jan 7
Active
32
What will Powell say during his April press conference?
No
94%
$57.2K
—
Apr 30
Active
33
Bank of Canada decision in April?
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting
99%
$54.3K
$21.6K
Apr 28
Active
34
Argentina Monthly Inflation – March
Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026
Outcome
$52.1K
—
Apr 13
Closed
35
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
27,500–27,999
5%
$49.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
36
Powell out as Chair?
No
99%
$47.9K
—
May 7
Active
37
Bank of Russia decision in April?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting
95%
$46.9K
$39.2K
Apr 23
Closing Soon
38
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting
81%
$45.8K
$18.6K
May 6
Active
39
Will gas hit __ by end of April?
$3.95
22%
$45.1K
$42.8K
Apr 29
Active
40
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
67%
$44.9K
$206.6K
Jun 16
Active
41
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
April 19, 2026
51%
$44.7K
$11.3K
Apr 18
Closed
42
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No
86%
$38.5K
$171.6K
Dec 8
Active
43
Will Trump's first Fed Chair pick be confirmed?
Yes
83%
$36.8K
—
Jul 8
Active
44
How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?
Yes
88%
$35.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
45
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
$375M
3%
$33.3K
$89.6K
Apr 30
Active
46
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30
25%
$33.2K
$18.9K
Apr 29
Active
47
Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.2%
99%
$30.9K
—
Aug 11
Active
48
US x Cuba economic deal by…?
June 30, 2026
38%
$30.2K
$30.7K
Jun 29
Active
49
Brent crude oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $80.99
91%
$30.1K
—
May 7
Active
50
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
70%
$29.2K
$144.3K
Dec 30
Active
51
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
> 1.0%
87%
$28.8K
—
Jul 30
Active
52
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30
39%
$28.3K
$26.3K
Apr 29
Active
53
How low will oil (WTI) get by Apr 30, 2026?
$86
99%
$27.9K
—
May 7
Active
54
How low will the S&P get this year?
Yes
51%
$25.8K
—
Jan 7
Active
55
South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Will
65%
$24.6K
$14.8K
Apr 22
Closing Soon
56
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,400 or above
65%
$24.1K
—
Jan 7
Active
57
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
26%
$23.7K
—
Jan 1
Active
58
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
12%
$23.7K
—
Jan 8
Active
59
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31
74%
$23.2K
$36.8K
Dec 30
Active
60
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
62%
$22.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
61
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 21, 2026?
$77+
98%
$22.0K
—
Apr 28
Active
62
People's Bank of China rate change in April?
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April
99%
$21.8K
$11.4K
Apr 29
Active
63
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in April?
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting
79%
$20.3K
$5.7K
Apr 29
Active
64
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting
62%
$20.1K
$6.9K
Jun 10
Active
65
What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference
98%
$19.5K
$24.7K
Apr 28
Active
66
How high will inflation get this year?
At least 3.5%
96%
$18.9K
—
Feb 28
Active
67
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
3.6%
30%
$18.6K
—
Aug 11
Active
68
Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor before August 2026?
Before August
56%
$18.5K
—
Aug 8
Active
69
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Will
25%
$18.3K
$33.5K
Apr 29
Active
70
Will 32BJ SEIU NYC residential building workers strike before May?
No
99%
$18.2K
—
May 2
Active
71
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision
72%
$16.5K
$20.9K
Apr 28
Active
72
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of April 13 2026?
No
Outcome
$15.2K
—
Apr 17
Closed
73
Brent crude oil price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $73.99
97%
$14.9K
—
May 1
Active
74
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?
$1.5M
59%
$14.2K
$16.1K
Apr 29
Active
75
How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?
$85 or below
99%
$14.2K
—
Jan 7
Active
76
Fed funds rate after Apr 2026 meeting?
Above 3.00%
100%
$14.2K
—
May 6
Active
77
CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?
0.5%
39%
$12.6K
—
Aug 11
Active
78
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 14, 2026?
the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 14
Outcome
$7.5K
—
Apr 16
Closed
79
Number of US Flights Delayed March 29?
No
Outcome
$3.8K
—
Mar 26
Closed
80
Number of TSA passengers April 13 – April 19?
the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 – April 19
Outcome
$2.4K
—
Apr 18
Closed