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March Madness Odds: Duke 19.1% Favorite at Prediction Markets

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Updated 26 minutes ago · 8:41 PM PST

North Carolina is the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament after dominating its rivals in the Big Ten this season. Duke is trading at 19.1% (+425 odds) with Kalshi and 30.0% (+233) with Polymarket to win the 2026 March Madness tournament. That leaves them ahead of elite rivals like Arizona and Michigan in this market. The NCAA Tournament winner contract has generated more than $73.2K in trading volume, primarily on Kalshi. Our 2026 March Madness odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates.

Largest Spread

10.81%

Houston → View arbs

Consensus Leader

+425

Duke 4.9%

24H Volume (Share)

$73.2K

Momentum Leader

+10.5%

Michigan St. YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Duke

Vol $3.5K Spread 11.0%

Agg +425

↓ -4.9%

North Carolina

K +233

P +426

Kalshi +233

Vol $20 28–32¢

Polymarket +426

Vol $3.5K 18–20¢

Michigan

Vol $2.0K Spread 7.0%

Agg +458

↓ -12.1%

K +308

P +471

Kalshi +308

Vol $124 23–26¢

Polymarket +471

Vol $1.9K 17–18¢

Arizona

Vol $2.4K Spread 13.3%

Agg +714

↓ -6.2%

K +292

P +720

Kalshi +292

Vol $15 21–30¢

Polymarket +720

Vol $2.3K 11.5–12.9¢

UConn

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +733

↓ -20.0%

K +733

Kalshi +733

Vol $0 10–14¢

Michigan St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +852

↑ +10.5%

K +852

Kalshi +852

Vol $0 0–21¢

Iowa St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +900

↑ +10.0%

K +900

Kalshi +900

Vol $0 8–12¢

Florida

Vol $2.7K Spread 13.4%

Agg +1,203

↓ -8.8%

K +376

P +1,207

Kalshi +376

Vol $5 19–23¢

Polymarket +1,207

Vol $2.7K 7.2–8.1¢

Houston

Vol $1.8K Spread 13.5%

Agg +1,233

↓ -21.0%

K +376

P +1,233

Kalshi +376

Vol $0 19–23¢

Polymarket +1,233

Vol $1.8K 7–8¢

Wisconsin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,329

↑ +7.0%

K +1,329

Kalshi +1,329

Vol $0 0–14¢

Colorado St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Dayton

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Drake

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Eastern Kentucky

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Fairfield

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

FDU

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Florida St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Furman

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Grand Canyon

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Georgetown

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -4.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Seton Hall

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -4.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Hofstra

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Howard

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

High Point

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Indiana

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Indiana St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Iona

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Iowa

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -6.5%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Kansas St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Loyola Chicago

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Liberty

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Longwood

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Marquette

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -4.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

McNeese

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Memphis

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Miami (FL)

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.5%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Ole Miss

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Missouri

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Montana

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Mississippi State

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Murray St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

NCS

North Carolina St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Notre Dame

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Nevada

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Oakland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Oklahoma

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Oregon

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Oral Roberts

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Pittsburgh

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Princeton

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Providence

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -4.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Quinnipiac

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Richmond

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

SDS

South Dakota St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

SDS

San Diego St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

San Francisco

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

SFA

Stephen F. Austin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

SMU

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -41.5%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Stanford

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Syracuse

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

TCU

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Texas

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

TAM

Texas A&M

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

UC Irvine

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

USB

UC Santa Barbara

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

USD

UC San Diego

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

UNC Asheville

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Vermont

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

VCU

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Virginia Tech

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Wake Forest

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -19.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Weber St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Winthrop

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Western Kentucky

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Wofford

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

West Virginia

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Xavier

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↓ -17.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Yale

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,567

↑ +6.0%

K +1,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Chattanooga

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,718

↑ +5.5%

K +1,718

Kalshi +1,718

Vol $0 0–11¢

Charleston

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,718

↑ +5.5%

K +1,718

Kalshi +1,718

Vol $0 0–11¢

Colgate

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,718

↑ +5.5%

K +1,718

Kalshi +1,718

Vol $0 0–11¢

Villanova

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,718

↓ -19.5%

K +1,718

Kalshi +1,718

Vol $0 0–11¢

Youngstown St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,718

↑ +5.5%

K +1,718

Kalshi +1,718

Vol $0 0–11¢

Illinois

Vol $2.4K Spread 11.8%

Agg +1,805

↓ -17.8%

K +488

P +1,805

Kalshi +488

Vol $0 13–21¢

Polymarket +1,805

Vol $2.4K 5.1–5.4¢

Baylor

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,900

↑ +5.0%

K +1,900

Kalshi +1,900

Vol $0 0–10¢

Boise St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,900

↑ +5.0%

K +1,900

Kalshi +1,900

Vol $0 0–10¢

Cincinnati

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,900

↓ -5.0%

K +1,900

Kalshi +1,900

Vol $0 0–10¢

Ohio St.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +1,900

↑ +5.0%

K +1,900

Kalshi +1,900

Vol $0 0–10¢

Connecticut

Vol $2.7K Spread —

Agg +1,941

↑ +0.6%

P +1,941

Polymarket +1,941

Vol $2.7K 4.7–5.1¢

Boston College

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,122

↓ -20.5%

K +2,122

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

Bryant

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,122

↑ +4.5%

K +2,122

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

Butler

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,122

↓ -20.5%

K +2,122

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

St. Bonaventure

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,122

↓ -20.5%

K +2,122

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

Santa Clara

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,122

↑ +4.5%

K +2,122

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

Purdue

Vol $1.9K Spread 7.7%

Agg +2,253

↓ -18.3%

K +733

P +2,253

Kalshi +733

Vol $0 10–14¢

Polymarket +2,253

Vol $1.9K 4.1–4.4¢

Iowa State

Vol $2.9K Spread —

Agg +2,281

↓ -0.2%

P +2,281

Polymarket +2,281

Vol $2.9K 3.7–4.7¢

USC

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +2,400

↑ +4.0%

K +2,400

Kalshi +2,400

Vol $0 0–8¢

Kansas

Vol $3.1K Spread 8.2%

Agg +2,930

↑ +3.3%

K +770

P +2,930

Kalshi +770

Vol $0 9–14¢

Polymarket +2,930

Vol $3.1K 3.1–3.5¢

SMS

Saint Mary's

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg +3,900

↑ +2.5%

K +3,900

Kalshi +3,900

Vol $0 0–5¢

Gonzaga

Vol $2.1K Spread 7.1%

Agg +3,982

↓ -17.6%

K +953

P +3,982

Kalshi +953

Vol $0 7–12¢

Polymarket +3,982

Vol $2.1K 2.3–2.6¢

Virginia

Vol $2.2K Spread 9.0%

Agg +4,778

↓ -45.4%

K +809

P +4,778

Kalshi +809

Vol $0 0–22¢

Polymarket +4,778

Vol $2.2K 1.3–2.8¢

Michigan State

Vol $3.5K Spread —

Agg +5,456

↑ +0.4%

P +5,456

Polymarket +5,456

Vol $3.5K 1.6–2¢

Nebraska

Vol $1.8K Spread 2.6%

Agg +6,797

↑ +1.5%

K +2,400

P +6,797

Kalshi +2,400

Vol $0 0–8¢

Polymarket +6,797

Vol $1.8K 1.4–1.5¢

North Carolina

Vol $2.3K Spread 3.1%

Agg +7,043

↓ -23.1%

K +2,122

P +7,043

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 2–7¢

Polymarket +7,043

Vol $2.3K 1.3–1.5¢

BYU

Vol $2.6K Spread 1.7%

Agg +7,900

↓ -18.3%

K +3,233

P +7,900

Kalshi +3,233

Vol $0 1–5¢

Polymarket +7,900

Vol $2.6K 0.9–1.6¢

SJS

St. John's

Vol $2.2K Spread 4.8%

Agg +8,233

↓ -10.3%

K +1,567

P +8,233

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 5–7¢

Polymarket +8,233

Vol $2.2K 1.1–1.3¢

Arkansas

Vol $1.8K Spread 3.4%

Agg +8,596

↑ +1.2%

K +2,122

P +8,596

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 2–7¢

Polymarket +8,596

Vol $1.8K 1.1–1.2¢

Texas Tech

Vol $3.7K Spread 2.9%

Agg +8,596

↓ -9.9%

K +2,400

P +8,596

Kalshi +2,400

Vol $0 3–5¢

Polymarket +8,596

Vol $3.7K 1.1–1.2¢

NC State

Vol $1.9K Spread —

Agg +8,596

↑ +0.1%

P +8,596

Polymarket +8,596

Vol $1.9K 1.1–1.2¢

Alabama

Vol $2.4K Spread 5.9%

Agg +8,991

↑ +1.1%

K +1,329

P +8,991

Kalshi +1,329

Vol $0 0–14¢

Polymarket +8,991

Vol $2.4K 1–1.2¢

Louisville

Vol $1.9K Spread 7.7%

Agg +11,665

↓ -46.7%

K +1,076

P +11,665

Kalshi +1,076

Vol $0 0–17¢

Polymarket +11,665

Vol $1.9K 0.8–0.9¢

Tennessee

Vol $2.1K Spread 7.7%

Agg +11,665

↑ +0.9%

K +1,076

P +11,665

Kalshi +1,076

Vol $0 0–17¢

Polymarket +11,665

Vol $2.1K 0.7–1¢

NTW

NCAA Tournament Winner

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg +12,400

↓ -25.6%

U +12,400

Polymarket US +12,400

Vol $5 0.7–3.9¢

Vanderbilt

Vol $2.7K Spread 7.8%

Agg +13,233

↑ +0.8%

K +1,076

P +13,233

Kalshi +1,076

Vol $0 0–17¢

Polymarket +13,233

Vol $2.7K 0.6–0.9¢

Kentucky

Vol $2.1K Spread 5.6%

Agg +22,122

↑ +0.4%

K +1,567

P +22,122

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Polymarket +22,122

Vol $2.1K 0.4–0.5¢

Auburn

Vol $2.5K Spread 4.3%

Agg +39,900

↑ +0.3%

K +2,122

P +39,900

Kalshi +2,122

Vol $0 0–9¢

Polymarket +39,900

Vol $2.5K 0.2–0.3¢

UCLA

Vol $1.8K Spread 5.8%

Agg +39,900

↓ -9.8%

K +1,567

P +39,900

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Polymarket +39,900

Vol $1.8K 0.2–0.3¢

Clemson

Vol $1.8K Spread 8.3%

Agg +49,900

↓ -1.8%

K +1,076

P +49,900

Kalshi +1,076

Vol $0 0–17¢

Polymarket +49,900

Vol $1.8K 0.1–0.3¢

Creighton

Vol $4.2K Spread 5.9%

Agg +66,567

↓ -9.9%

K +1,567

P +66,567

Kalshi +1,567

Vol $0 0–12¢

Polymarket +66,567

Vol $4.2K 0.1–0.2¢

Saint Louis

Vol $2.4K Spread —

Agg +66,567

↓ -1.1%

P +66,567

Polymarket +66,567

Vol $2.4K 0.1–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Polymarket US
DU Duke North Carolina	+425 ↓ -4.9%	11.0%	$3.5K	Kalshi +233 28–32¢ Vol $20	Polymarket +426 18–20¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket US — —
MI Michigan	+458 ↓ -12.1%	7.0%	$2.0K	Kalshi +308 23–26¢ Vol $124	Polymarket +471 17–18¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket US — —
AR Arizona	+714 ↓ -6.2%	13.3%	$2.4K	Kalshi +292 21–30¢ Vol $15	Polymarket +720 11.5–12.9¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket US — —
UC UConn	+733 ↓ -20.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +733 10–14¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MS Michigan St.	+852 ↑ +10.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +852 0–21¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IS Iowa St.	+900 ↑ +10.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +900 8–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
FL Florida	+1,203 ↓ -8.8%	13.4%	$2.7K	Kalshi +376 19–23¢ Vol $5	Polymarket +1,207 7.2–8.1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket US — —
HO Houston	+1,233 ↓ -21.0%	13.5%	$1.8K	Kalshi +376 19–23¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +1,233 7–8¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket US — —
WI Wisconsin	+1,329 ↑ +7.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,329 0–14¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CS Colorado St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
DA Dayton	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
DR Drake	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
EK Eastern Kentucky	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
FA Fairfield	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
FD FDU	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
FS Florida St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
FU Furman	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
GC Grand Canyon	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
GE Georgetown	+1,567 ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SH Seton Hall	+1,567 ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
HO Hofstra	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
HO Howard	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
HP High Point	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IN Indiana	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IS Indiana St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IO Iona	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IO Iowa	+1,567 ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
KS Kansas St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
LC Loyola Chicago	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
LI Liberty	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
LO Longwood	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MA Marquette	+1,567 ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MC McNeese	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
ME Memphis	+1,567 ↓ -41.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MF Miami (FL)	+1,567 ↓ -41.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OM Ole Miss	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MI Missouri	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MO Montana	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MS Mississippi State	+1,567 ↓ -41.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
MS Murray St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
NCS North Carolina St.	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
ND Notre Dame	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
NE Nevada	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OA Oakland	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OK Oklahoma	+1,567 ↓ -41.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OR Oregon	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OR Oral Roberts	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
PI Pittsburgh	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
PR Princeton	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
PR Providence	+1,567 ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
QU Quinnipiac	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
RI Richmond	+1,567 ↓ -41.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SDS South Dakota St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SDS San Diego St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SF San Francisco	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SFA Stephen F. Austin	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SM SMU	+1,567 ↓ -41.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
ST Stanford	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SY Syracuse	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
TC TCU	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
TE Texas	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
TAM Texas A&M	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
UI UC Irvine	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
USB UC Santa Barbara	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
USD UC San Diego	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
UA UNC Asheville	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
VE Vermont	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
VC VCU	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
VT Virginia Tech	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WF Wake Forest	+1,567 ↓ -19.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WS Weber St.	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WI Winthrop	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WK Western Kentucky	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WO Wofford	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
WV West Virginia	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
XA Xavier	+1,567 ↓ -17.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
YA Yale	+1,567 ↑ +6.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CH Chattanooga	+1,718 ↑ +5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,718 0–11¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CH Charleston	+1,718 ↑ +5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,718 0–11¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CO Colgate	+1,718 ↑ +5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,718 0–11¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
VI Villanova	+1,718 ↓ -19.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,718 0–11¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
YS Youngstown St.	+1,718 ↑ +5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,718 0–11¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
IL Illinois	+1,805 ↓ -17.8%	11.8%	$2.4K	Kalshi +488 13–21¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +1,805 5.1–5.4¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket US — —
BA Baylor	+1,900 ↑ +5.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,900 0–10¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
BS Boise St.	+1,900 ↑ +5.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,900 0–10¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CI Cincinnati	+1,900 ↓ -5.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,900 0–10¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
OS Ohio St.	+1,900 ↑ +5.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +1,900 0–10¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
CO Connecticut	+1,941 ↑ +0.6%	—	$2.7K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket +1,941 4.7–5.1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket US — —
BC Boston College	+2,122 ↓ -20.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
BR Bryant	+2,122 ↑ +4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
BU Butler	+2,122 ↓ -20.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SB St. Bonaventure	+2,122 ↓ -20.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
SC Santa Clara	+2,122 ↑ +4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
PU Purdue	+2,253 ↓ -18.3%	7.7%	$1.9K	Kalshi +733 10–14¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +2,253 4.1–4.4¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket US — —
IS Iowa State	+2,281 ↓ -0.2%	—	$2.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket +2,281 3.7–4.7¢ Vol $2.9K	Polymarket US — —
US USC	+2,400 ↑ +4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi +2,400 0–8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
KA Kansas	+2,930 ↑ +3.3%	8.2%	$3.1K	Kalshi +770 9–14¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +2,930 3.1–3.5¢ Vol $3.1K	Polymarket US — —
SMS Saint Mary's	+3,900 ↑ +2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi +3,900 0–5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US — —
GO Gonzaga	+3,982 ↓ -17.6%	7.1%	$2.1K	Kalshi +953 7–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +3,982 2.3–2.6¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket US — —
VI Virginia	+4,778 ↓ -45.4%	9.0%	$2.2K	Kalshi +809 0–22¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +4,778 1.3–2.8¢ Vol $2.2K	Polymarket US — —
MS Michigan State	+5,456 ↑ +0.4%	—	$3.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket +5,456 1.6–2¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket US — —
NE Nebraska	+6,797 ↑ +1.5%	2.6%	$1.8K	Kalshi +2,400 0–8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +6,797 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket US — —
NC North Carolina	+7,043 ↓ -23.1%	3.1%	$2.3K	Kalshi +2,122 2–7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +7,043 1.3–1.5¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket US — —
BY BYU	+7,900 ↓ -18.3%	1.7%	$2.6K	Kalshi +3,233 1–5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +7,900 0.9–1.6¢ Vol $2.6K	Polymarket US — —
SJS St. John's	+8,233 ↓ -10.3%	4.8%	$2.2K	Kalshi +1,567 5–7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +8,233 1.1–1.3¢ Vol $2.2K	Polymarket US — —
AR Arkansas	+8,596 ↑ +1.2%	3.4%	$1.8K	Kalshi +2,122 2–7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +8,596 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket US — —
TT Texas Tech	+8,596 ↓ -9.9%	2.9%	$3.7K	Kalshi +2,400 3–5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +8,596 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $3.7K	Polymarket US — —
NS NC State	+8,596 ↑ +0.1%	—	$1.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket +8,596 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket US — —
AL Alabama	+8,991 ↑ +1.1%	5.9%	$2.4K	Kalshi +1,329 0–14¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +8,991 1–1.2¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket US — —
LO Louisville	+11,665 ↓ -46.7%	7.7%	$1.9K	Kalshi +1,076 0–17¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +11,665 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket US — —
TE Tennessee	+11,665 ↑ +0.9%	7.7%	$2.1K	Kalshi +1,076 0–17¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +11,665 0.7–1¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket US — —
NTW NCAA Tournament Winner	+12,400 ↓ -25.6%	—	$5	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Polymarket US +12,400 0.7–3.9¢ Vol $5
VA Vanderbilt	+13,233 ↑ +0.8%	7.8%	$2.7K	Kalshi +1,076 0–17¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +13,233 0.6–0.9¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket US — —
KE Kentucky	+22,122 ↑ +0.4%	5.6%	$2.1K	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +22,122 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket US — —
AU Auburn	+39,900 ↑ +0.3%	4.3%	$2.5K	Kalshi +2,122 0–9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +39,900 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket US — —
UC UCLA	+39,900 ↓ -9.8%	5.8%	$1.8K	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +39,900 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket US — —
CL Clemson	+49,900 ↓ -1.8%	8.3%	$1.8K	Kalshi +1,076 0–17¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +49,900 0.1–0.3¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket US — —
CR Creighton	+66,567 ↓ -9.9%	5.9%	$4.2K	Kalshi +1,567 0–12¢ Vol $0	Polymarket +66,567 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $4.2K	Polymarket US — —
SL Saint Louis	+66,567 ↓ -1.1%	—	$2.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket +66,567 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket US — —

Odds Over Time

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Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Polymarket US

Cross-Venue Spread

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

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Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
HO Houston	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 19¢	+11.00%	+10.81%	Yes
FL Florida	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8.1¢	Sell @ K 19¢	+10.90%	+10.71%	Yes
AR Arizona	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12.9¢	Sell @ K 21¢	+8.10%	+7.89%	Yes
DU Duke North Carolina	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 20¢	Sell @ K 28¢	+8.00%	+7.72%	Yes
IL Illinois	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.4¢	Sell @ K 13¢	+7.60%	+7.47%	Yes
PU Purdue	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.4¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+5.60%	+5.50%	Yes
KA Kansas	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 9¢	+5.50%	+5.41%	Yes
MI Michigan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 18¢	Sell @ K 23¢	+5.00%	+4.77%	Yes
GO Gonzaga	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.6¢	Sell @ K 7¢	+4.40%	+4.33%	Yes
SJS St. John's	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+3.70%	+3.63%	Yes
TT Texas Tech	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.80%	+1.73%	Yes
AR Arkansas	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No
NC North Carolina	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
CR Creighton	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
AU Auburn	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No
UC UCLA	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No
CL Clemson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No
KE Kentucky	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No
BY BYU	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.60%	-0.67%	No
LO Louisville	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.90%	-0.90%	No
VA Vanderbilt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.90%	-0.90%	No
TE Tennessee	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-1.00%	-1.00%	No
AL Alabama	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-1.20%	-1.20%	No
NE Nebraska	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-1.50%	-1.50%	No
VI Virginia	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.8¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-2.80%	-2.80%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
DU Duke	VI Virginia	Kalshi	A +233	B +809	+19.00%	Buy spread
DU Duke	KA Kansas	Kalshi	A +233	B +770	+18.50%	Buy spread
DU Duke	UC UConn	Kalshi	A +233	B +733	+18.00%	Buy spread
DU Duke	PU Purdue	Kalshi	A +233	B +733	+18.00%	Buy spread
DU Duke	KA Kansas	Polymarket	A +426	B +2,930	+15.70%	Buy spread
DU Duke	IS Iowa State	Polymarket	A +426	B +2,281	+14.80%	Buy spread
DU Duke	PU Purdue	Polymarket	A +426	B +2,253	+14.75%	Buy spread
AR Arizona	VI Virginia	Kalshi	A +292	B +809	+14.50%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	KA Kansas	Polymarket	A +471	B +2,930	+14.20%	Buy spread
DU Duke	CO Connecticut	Polymarket	A +426	B +1,941	+14.10%	Buy spread
AR Arizona	KA Kansas	Kalshi	A +292	B +770	+14.00%	Buy spread
DU Duke	IL Illinois	Polymarket	A +426	B +1,805	+13.75%	Buy spread
AR Arizona	UC UConn	Kalshi	A +292	B +733	+13.50%	Buy spread
AR Arizona	PU Purdue	Kalshi	A +292	B +733	+13.50%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	VI Virginia	Kalshi	A +308	B +809	+13.50%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	IS Iowa State	Polymarket	A +471	B +2,281	+13.30%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	PU Purdue	Polymarket	A +471	B +2,253	+13.25%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	KA Kansas	Kalshi	A +308	B +770	+13.00%	Buy spread
DU Duke	IL Illinois	Kalshi	A +233	B +488	+13.00%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	CO Connecticut	Polymarket	A +471	B +1,941	+12.60%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	UC UConn	Kalshi	A +308	B +733	+12.50%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	PU Purdue	Kalshi	A +308	B +733	+12.50%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	IL Illinois	Polymarket	A +471	B +1,805	+12.25%	Buy spread
DU Duke	HO Houston	Polymarket	A +426	B +1,233	+11.50%	Buy spread
DU Duke	FL Florida	Polymarket	A +426	B +1,207	+11.35%	Buy spread
FL Florida	VI Virginia	Kalshi	A +376	B +809	+10.00%	Buy spread
HO Houston	VI Virginia	Kalshi	A +376	B +809	+10.00%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	HO Houston	Polymarket	A +471	B +1,233	+10.00%	Buy spread
MI Michigan	FL Florida	Polymarket	A +471	B +1,207	+9.85%	Buy spread
FL Florida	KA Kansas	Kalshi	A +376	B +770	+9.50%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Latest March Madness predictions update

There have been some significant price moves in March Madness prediction markets this week. These are the major changes we’ve seen:

Duke beats Michigan: Michigan’s 11-game winning streak ended with a 68-63 defeat to Duke in Washington DC. Kalshi traders responded by cutting Michigan’s chances of winning March Madness from 23% to 21%, but they recovered to 22% after beating Minnesota.
Top teams neck and neck on Polymarket: Duke is up from 11.9% to 19% at Kalshi after beating Michigan and obliterating Notre Dame this week. Michigan and Duke are now both level at 18% on Polymarket – a major reversal in fortunes for both teams.
Kalshi removes “March Madness” branding: Kalshi removed references to March Madness from its platform. The NCAA asked Kalshi to stop using the trademarked term. The outright market is now known as the “Men’s College Basketball Champion” on Kalshi and the 2026 NCAA Tournament Winner at Polymarket.
A humbling week for Houston and Uconn: Houston’s chances of winning the NCAA Tournament dropped to 9% on prediction sites after a three-game losing streak. The Cougars lost to Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas. UConn also dropped 5% at Kalshi following a humbling defeat to Creighton.
JT Toppin injury: Texas Tech’s hopes of winning March Madness suffered a major blow when star forward JT Toppin tore his ACL. He leads the team for scoring, rebounding, and blocks, but he’s now out for the season.

Weekly probability snapshot for each team to win the tournament

Rank	Team	Kalshi	Polymarket	Spread
1	Michigan	22%	18%	4%
2	Duke	18%	18%	0%
3	Arizona	13%	11%	2%
4	Florida	8%	8%	0%
5	Houston	8%	8%	0%
6	Illinois	7%	5%	2%
7	UConn	6%	4%	2%
8	Iowa State	5%	4%	0%
9	Kansas	4%	4%	0%
10	Purdue	4%	4%	0%
11	Gonzaga	3%	2%	1%
12	Virginia	2%	2%	0%
13	Alabama	2%	1%	0%
14	Arkansas	2%	1%	0%
15	BYU	2%	1%	0%

Michigan’s odds to win March Madness

Michigan is the outright favorite to win March Madness with Kalshi. The Wolverines are trading at 22% Kalshi, but only 18% with Polymarket. That 4% spread is the widest on the odds board, as Kalshi traders are far more bullish on Michigan.

It’s easy to make the bull case for the Wolverines, despite their narrow defeat to Duke on February 21. They’re still 26-2 overall, and Michigan’s .929 win percentage is the joint-best in the country this season. The Wolverines are also 16-1 in the Big Ten, and they’re the heavy favorites to win a very strong conference.

Dusty May’s team has physically dominated most of its opponents this season. Rivals have struggled to cope with Michigan’s supersized frontcourt, which features Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. Standout results include a 91-80 win against Purdue on the road, a 110-69 victory over Penn State, and an 82-61 win against Ohio State. They have an elite defense, a deep nine-man rotation, and a powerful transition game.

The biggest concern is Michigan’s inconsistent 3-point shooting. The team finished 6 of 25 from 3-point range in February’s defeat to Duke, and it has had long stretches of poor 3-point shooting this season. Michigan also struggles when Mara is off the floor, so May will hope he stays healthy and out of foul trouble during the NCAA Tournament.

Duke’s odds to win the NCAA Tournament

Duke’s hopes of winning the NCAA Tournament were boosted after it beat Michigan 68-63 in February. Cameron Boozer, the favorite for the Naismith Player of the Year award, finished that game with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists. That win left Duke 26-2 overall and 13-1 in the ACC. Crucially, it propelled Duke back to No. 1 in The Associated Press men’s college basketball poll.

The Blue Devils have only lost two games this season. Both defeats were narrow – 82-81 to Texas Tech and 71-68 to UNC – and they bounced back with strong performances in their subsequent games. Boozer has blazed a trail of destruction across the ACC this season, winning nine ACC Rookie of the Week awards. The 6-foot-9 power forward is remarkably efficient from every area of the floor, and he looks like a generational talent.

Duke’s defense also excelled against Michigan, suggesting that this team could be ready to win March Madness. The Blue Devils have a 16% chance of success, according to Kalshi and Polymarket traders. An injury to Boozer could be disastrous, and that might be why Duke is below Michigan in the outright market. If he stays healthy, Duke could be unstoppable.

Arizona’s odds to become the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Champion

Arizona is the third most likely team to win the NCAA Tournament, according to prediction markets. The Wildcats are level with Michigan and Duke at the top of the net rankings, with a 26-2 overall record for the season. They’re on course to win the Big 12, and they should capture a No. 1 seed for March Madness.

The Wildcats were 23-0 before a pair of tough losses in February. Traders turned more bearish on Arizona after those defeats, but the team bounced back in style. Arizona outclassed BYU, beat a strong Houston team on the road, and then clinched an 87-80 comeback win against Baylor.

Tommy Lloyd has a strong, balanced rotation at his disposal. Senior guard Jaden Bradley, freshman forward Koa Peat, and center Motiejus Krivas have been superb. Anthony Dell’Orso has emerged as another rising star, while Ivan Kharchenkov is an increasingly reliable source of points and rebounds. The defense consistently forces turnovers, so Arizona has all the weapons it needs to challenge for the title. However, no team from west of Waco, Texas, has won the NCAA Tournament this century, so history is against Arizona, and that’s reflected in the team’s price.

Florida’s odds to the NCAA Tournament

The defending national champion should be surging with momentum and confidence at March Madness. Florida extended its winning streak to seven games with a blowout victory over Ole Miss, which left it 21-6 for the season. The Gators have emerged as the standout team in the SEC, with a 12-2 record in the conference. Florida is now the fourth most likely team to win the title, according to prediction markets.

At one stage, Florida was 5-4, but the Gators have gone 16-2 since then. They’ve scored at least 86 points in six straight road games in the SEC, which bodes well for their chances at the NCAA Tournament. Can they repeat? Recent results suggest that the team hasn’t lost its competitive edge, even if the roster has evolved since last year. They’re fast and physical, and they’ve hit a hot streak at the perfect time, but they shoot the three poorly, so they’ll need to address that weakness.

Houston’s odds to win March Madness

Houston’s chances of winning March Madness dropped to 8% on prediction sites after a run of three straight losses in February. That left the Cougars 23-5 overall and 5-3 on the road. Their away form is a cause for concern ahead of the NCAA Tournament, but there are still reasons to be bullish on this team. After all, Houston has reached the Sweet 16 in six consecutive tournaments, and Kelvin Sampson is a vastly experienced coach.

The Cougars also boast an elite defense. Freshman Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp have formed one of the best backcourt duos in the country. Another freshman, Chris Cenac Jr., is physically dominant at 6-foot-11 and with a 7-foot-4 wingspan. Stamina is a potential issue: Houston was outscored by 12 points in the closing stages of its defeat to Iowa State and 9 points at the end of its loss to Arizona. If Sampson’s team can overcome those late-game wobbles, Houston could finally secure that elusive national championship.

March Madness prediction markets

The best prediction sites offer a wide range of markets on the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament. These are the most popular markets.

Tournament winner

This is the main March Madness futures market. Kalshi refers to it as the “Men’s College Basketball Champion,” while Polymarket lists it as the “2026 NCAA Tournament Winner.” The terms are different, but it’s the same underlying question – which team will lift the trophy at the end of March Madness?

The market has already generated more than $32M in combined volume, with the bulk of it going through Kalshi. You simply need to predict who will become the national champion. If you think a team will win March Madness, buy “yes” contracts. If not, buy “no” contracts.

You can also sell your contracts before they settle. For example, you might buy “yes” contracts on a team before the tournament, and sell them at a higher price if that team reaches the Elite Eight. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit, without waiting to see how your team performs.

Qualify for the championship game

You can also back a team to qualify for the national championship game. If the team reaches the final of March Madness, the contract will resolve to “yes” immediately. It will resolve to “no” if they’re eliminated at any stage.

Liquidity is much thinner on this market. It launched on February 2 at Kalshi, but it has only attracted around $25,000 in volume so far. Interest should spike as March Madness approaches and hoops fans start filling in their brackets.

Reach a certain round

Prediction sites are also offering contracts on whether each team will reach a certain stage of the tournament. At Kalshi, you can buy yes/no contracts on whether a team will qualify for the Round of 64, Round of 32, Round of 16, Round of 8, or the “Men’s Semifinals.” That’s essentially the First Round, Second Round, Sweet 16 (Regional Semifinals), Elite Eight (Regional Finals), or the Final Four.

This could be a safer option than backing a team to win the tournament. If you think a team has a pretty clear path to the Elite Eight or the Final Four, just back them to qualify for the Round of 8 or the Men’s Semifinals.

Naismith Player of the Year

Cameron Boozer is the clear favorite to win the Naismith Trophy for Men’s College Player of the Year in 2026. The award is normally announced in early April, during the Final Four weekend.

More than $300,000 has been traded on this market at Kalshi. In late November 2025, Boozer had a 22% implied chance of winning the award. His odds then spiked, and he’s now trading at 90%. Polymarket has 91% on Duke’s power forward, leaving him well ahead of the chasing pack.

March Madness props and special markets

Prediction sites are offering a few special markets on March Madness:

“Which teams will be a No. 1 seed?” This market is available at Polymarket. It lets you predict which teams will clinch a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament. Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Purdue are the current frontrunners to claim the four spots.
“No. 1 ranked team on the AP poll?” Each week, you can predict which team will top the Associated Press men’s college basketball poll at Kalshi.
Conference winners: Kalshi is also offering contracts on which team will win the nine biggest conferences. You can predict the regular season champion for the Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, Big East, Mountain West, ACC, West Coast, Atlantic 10, and the American Conference.
Who will say what: This is a given after Super Bowl. Mention markets, also called “Who will say” gives you the chance to trade on what the announcer does or doesn’t say during the tournament. This market has not launched (yet), but we fully expect it to and it will be big.

Markets on NCAA Tournament games

You’ll also find markets on each game during March Madness. These are the most common options:

Moneyline: A simple prediction on which team will win a game. If you think a team will win, buy “yes” contracts on them.
Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can then predict who will cover the point spread. For example, Kentucky might be the 5.5-point favorite against South Carolina. If you think Kentucky will win by at least 6 points, buy “yes” contracts on the Wildcats. If you expect South Carolina to win or lose by up to 5 points, back it to cover the spread.
Total: A prediction on the total goals that both teams will combine for during the game. For example, the line might be 148.5 points. If you think the game will see at least 149 points, buy “yes” contracts. If not, choose “no.”
First half winner: Kalshi also offers a first half winner market on NCAAB games. This market settles at half-time, so the second half is irrelevant.

Where to trade or bet on March Madness

The leading prediction sites will offer a broad range of markets on the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament. These are the best sites:

Kalshi: This popular app offers deeper liquidity on March Madness markets than any other prediction site. That should make it easy for you to open and exit positions during the NCAA Tournament. Kalshi offers lots of futures markets on the overall tournament, plus individual markets on each game.
Polymarket: A federally regulated prediction site that features lots of futures markets on the NCAA Tournament. You can also buy and sell contracts on individual NCAAB games at Polymarket. The site struggles to compete with Kalshi in terms of college basketball trading volume right now, but that could change when the tournament gets underway. Polymarket often has better prices on specific markets than Kalshi too, and the fees can be cheaper, so it’s worth signing up with both sites.
DraftKings: The major U.S. sports betting companies are expanding into prediction markets, with DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and Underdog leading the charge. DraftKings stands out by offering a smooth user interface, a 100% deposit match welcome bonus, and fast payouts. You’ll find spreads, totals, and moneylines on each NCAAB game at DraftKings Predictions. The site also has a futures market on the “College Basketball Champion 2026,” with competitive prices on big teams like Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston, and Florida.

Advantages of March Madness prediction markets

You can unlock a wide range of benefits by signing up with prediction sites:

Availability: Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are available nationwide. They’re especially popular in states that haven’t legalized online sports betting, such as California, Texas, and Georgia.
Juice: Prediction sites don’t build a house edge (juice or vig) into their lines. They simply allow you to trade contracts with fellow sports fans. The sites take a small hosting fee, but it’s typically much lower than the juice you’ll pay at a sportsbook. That means you’ll normally earn larger profits on winning plays, which boosts your chances of ending March Madness in the black. Just convert the prices at prediction sites into American odds (use the toggle above or our prediction market calculators), and you’ll see that they’re normally much sharper than sportsbook odds.
Flexibility: You can sell an open contract before the event takes place. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit. For instance, you might back a team to win the NCAA Tournament and sell your contracts for a higher price when they reach the Sweet 16. It’s similar to cashing out an open sports bet, but the terms are normally much better when you sell contracts on prediction sites.
Bonuses: The prediction markets industry has exploded in popularity over the past year, and new sites are trying to muscle their way in. This creates a very competitive field, and the top companies are offering large bonuses in a bid to attract more traders. March Madness is one the most popular sporting events of the year, so it’s a key battleground for prediction sites. That means you’ll find some solid bonuses and promos this year.
Regulated: Sites like Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings Predictions are regulated at a federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can rely on them to keep you safe, settle contracts fairly, and pay out when you request a withdrawal.

March Madness resolution criteria

The resolution criteria for the NCAA Tournament are clear and simple:

Futures contracts: If a team wins the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament, the market will resolve to “yes” and settle at $1.
Elimination: If a team is eliminated, the contracts will resolve to “no.” They will settle at $0. Kalshi will also settle contracts as “no” if a team is disqualified or forfeits. Check the full rules here.
Resolution source: Polymarket will use the NCAA as its resolution source. If a team is eliminated. Kalshi is relying on ESPN, The Wall Street Journal, AP, and Fox Sports.
Cancellation clause: If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other” at Polymarket.