The 2026 FIFA World Cup heads to NRG Stadium for a high-stakes Round of 32 clash on Monday, with a spot in the Round of 16 on the line as Brazil takes on Japan.
The match kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
Kalshi odds have the surging Seleção as the team to beat in their first knockout round match today. New Kalshi users can use promo code RATE to claim a $10 trading bonus for the 2026 Brazil vs. Japan match.
How to claim the Kalshi $10 bonus for Brazil vs Japan
Enter the promo code RATE when creating a new Kalshi account to claim a $10 trading bonus for World Cup markets. Here are the steps to follow to sign up and claim the bonus.
- Download the Kalshi app: Install the free Kalshi app for your iOS or Android device and begin the registration process. You can also visit the website and click on the Sign Up button.
- Enter the promo code RATE: Enter the Kalshi promo code RATE when prompted during the sign-up process.
- Verify your identity. You will need a valid driver’s license or passport to verify your identity.
- Fund your account: Deposit and trade $10 on any market using one of the accepted payment options, including a bank account, debit cards, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- Place your first trade. Review the market rules and make your first trade on the Brazil vs Japan match or any other World Cup market. Kalshi will credit your account with the $10 bonus after the market settles.
Check out our Kalshi promo code guide for the full terms and conditions. Enter the Kalshi code for your state
| Promo Code | Eligible States |
|---|---|
| RATE | All States + DC, excluding AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, and OH |
2026 World Cup market odds: Brazil vs Japan
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 58% | -138 |
| Japan | 19% | +426 |
| Draw | 25% | +300 |
| Brazil to win by 1.5 goals | 32% | +213 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 49% | +104 |
| Both teams to score | 20% | +400 |
| Goal scorer: Vinicius Junior – Brazil | 40% | +150 |
Brazil vs Japan preview
Brazil comes to NRG Stadium in Houston for this Round of 32 clash as the most feared attacking side in the tournament, and the Seleção have done nothing to allay fears since arriving in North America. Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil finished top of Group C in style, ending their group stage campaign with a convincing 3-0 dismantling of Scotland. Vinícius Júnior has been electric, netting three goals in the group stage alone, and looking like the player who can single-handedly win a World Cup.
Matheus Cunha has been an electric presence from the bench and from the start, while Bruno Guimarães provides the engine in the middle of the park, dictating Brazil’s tempo and transition. Brazil, the five-time world champions, are heavily favored at Kalshi, where they’re currently trading at 58% to beat Japan in regulation and reach the Round of 16.
But do not sleep on Japan, as this Samurai Blue side is a different breed from any previous iteration. Hajime Moriyasu’s men have proven they are a real giant-killer. Japan topped a very tough Group F without dropping a game, finishing on five points, and they go into this clash with an intriguing psychological advantage, beating Brazil 3-2 in a friendly in October 2025, a result that showed Japan can break down this backline if they’re given the opportunity.
Takefusa Kubo is still Japan’s most dangerous creative threat, capable of unlocking any defense in the world. Wataru Endo anchors the midfield, and Ayase Ueda provides the clinical finishing that punished opposition defenses throughout the tournament.
Brazil is 5-0-0 all-time vs. Japan, but this World Cup edition of the Samurai Blue has flipped the script on form-book expectations before. At 19% to win in regulation and advance on Kalshi, there is legitimate underdog value in Japan pulling off one of the tournament’s most memorable upsets.
Why trade Brazil vs Japan on Kalshi
One of the best places to trade the 2026 World Cup is Kalshi, a fully regulated prediction market, not a sportsbook. Instead of betting, you’re buying and selling contracts that are tied to real-life events. Brazil vs. Japan Round of 32 match is currently one of the most actively traded events on the platform, with markets ranging from which team advances to total corners and player-specific props.
The key difference between Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks is the ability to open and close your bets at any moment, even during the match, so if Brazil takes a 2-0 lead in the first half and Japan’s chances of advancing diminish, you can secure your profit without waiting for the final whistle.
Such real-time flexibility is much more akin to trading a stock than making a bet, and it really makes following a match like Brazil vs Japan an interactive experience. New users can dive into all of it with a leg up. Sign up with promo code RATE, and Kalshi will deposit a $10 bonus into your account after you complete $10 in trades, giving you instant trading power for the tournament’s marquee knockout matchups.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
