Survivor 50 Vote Count Odds Signal Landslide Aubry Win

The Survivor 50 finale airs Wednesday evening, and we’ve already covered the Survivor winner odds of each remaining player at Kalshi. But there’s another market in the mix with prices worth considering, as compared to the landslide odds in the winner market.

The market in question is Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count, which has you predict how many jury votes the final winner will have received once it’s all said and done.

Update: See all markets available on Kalshi and how to get $10 for tonight’s episode.

Setting the stage: Survivor finale

The Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count market’s current frontrunner is “Above 7.” At the time of writing, it’s at about 84%. “Above 8” is around 49%, with over $30K in volume in the overall market.

The elephant in this particular room, though, is the size of the Survivor 50 jury. It’s a big season and a big cast, so the jury will be fittingly large at 11 players (barring any last-minute twists). Six votes will do it straight-up. If it’s a final three, smaller vote splits can muck up the numbers a bit. For example, the winner could have five votes to their competitors’ four and two.

The high likelihood of Above 7 and Above 8 at a coinflip tell us the predicting public thinks this will be a fairly decisive vote. And if the current odds are to be believed and Aubry takes the season, I see how that could happen.

Here’s a retrospective of all previous Survivor seasons and their jury voting outcomes.

Platform	Sign-up bonus	Promo code	How to claim
★ Top Pick Kalshi	Trade $25, Get $500 Free	RATE	Best deal so far. Complete $25 in trades within 90 days.	Claim Now

Past Survivor final tribal council votes

Season (year)	Winner	Finalists with vote totals	Cast type
S1 – Borneo (2000)	Richard Hatch	Kelly Wiglesworth (4–3)	New
S2 – The Australian Outback (2001)	Tina Wesson	Colby Donaldson (4–3)	New
S3 – Africa (2001–02)	Ethan Zohn	Kim Johnson (5–2)	New
S4 – Marquesas (2002)	Vecepia Towery	Neleh Dennis (4–3)	New
S5 – Thailand (2002)	Brian Heidik	Clay Jordan (4–3)	New
S6 – The Amazon (2003)	Jenna Morasca	Matthew von Ertfelda (6–1)	New
S7 – Pearl Islands (2003)	Sandra Diaz-Twine	Lillian Morris (6–1)	New
S8 – All-Stars (2004)	Amber Brkich	Rob Mariano (4–3)	Returning
S9 – Vanuatu (2004)	Chris Daugherty	Twila Tanner (5–2)	New
S10 – Palau (2005)	Tom Westman	Katie Gallagher (6–1)	New
S11 – Guatemala (2005)	Danni Boatwright	Stephenie LaGrossa (6–1)	Mixed (2 returning)
S12 – Panama: Exile Island (2006)	Aras Baskauskas	Danielle DiLorenzo (5–2)	New
S13 – Cook Islands (2006)	Yul Kwon	Ozzy Lusth & Becky Lee (5–4–0)	New
S14 – Fiji (2007)	Earl Cole	Cassandra Franklin & Dreamz Herd (9–0–0)	New
S15 – China (2007)	Todd Herzog	Courtney Yates & Amanda Kimmel (4–2–1)	New
S16 – Micronesia (Fans vs. Favorites) (2008)	Parvati Shallow	Amanda Kimmel (5–3)	Mixed (10 returning, 10 new)
S17 – Gabon (2008)	Bob Crowley	Susie Smith & Sugar Kiper (4–3–0)	New
S18 – Tocantins (2009)	J.T. Thomas	Stephen Fishbach (7–0)	New
S19 – Samoa (2009)	Natalie White	Russell Hantz & Mick Trimming (7–2–0)	New
S20 – Heroes vs. Villains (2010)	Sandra Diaz-Twine	Parvati Shallow & Russell Hantz (6–3–0)	Returning
S21 – Nicaragua (2010)	Fabio Birza	Chase Rice & Matthew “Sash” Lenahan (5–4–0)	New
S22 – Redemption Island (2011)	Rob Mariano	Phillip Sheppard & Natalie Tenerelli (8–1–0)	Mixed (2 returning)
S23 – South Pacific (2011)	Sophie Clarke	Coach Wade & Albert Destrade (6–3–0)	Mixed (2 returning)
S24 – One World (2012)	Kim Spradlin	Sabrina Thompson & Chelsea Meissner (7–2–0)	New
S25 – Philippines (2012)	Denise Stapley	Lisa Whelchel & Michael Skupin (6–1–1)	Mixed (3 returning)
S26 – Caramoan (Fans vs. Favorites 2) (2013)	John Cochran	Dawn Meehan & Sherri Biethman (8–0–0)	Mixed (10 returning, 10 new)
S27 – Blood vs. Water (2013)	Tyson Apostol	Monica Culpepper & Gervase Peterson (7–1–0)	Mixed (10 returning + 10 family)
S28 – Cagayan (2014)	Tony Vlachos	Woo Hwang & Kass McQuillen (8–1–0)	New
S29 – San Juan del Sur (2014)	Natalie Anderson	Jaclyn Schultz & Missy Payne (5–2–1)	New (pairs of loved ones)
S30 – Worlds Apart (2015)	Mike Holloway	Carolyn Rivera & Will Sims II (6–1–1)	New
S31 – Cambodia – Second Chance (2015)	Jeremy Collins	Spencer Bledsoe & Tasha Fox (10–0–0)	Returning
S32 – Kaôh Rōng (2016)	Michele Fitzgerald	Aubry Bracco & Tai Trang (5–2–0)	New
S33 – Millennials vs. Gen X (2016)	Adam Klein	Hannah Shapiro & Ken McNickle (10–0–0)	New
S34 – Game Changers (2017)	Sarah Lacina	Brad Culpepper & Troyzan Robertson (7–3–0)	Returning
S35 – Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (2017)	Ben Driebergen	Chrissy Hofbeck & Ryan Ulrich (5–2–1)	New
S36 – Ghost Island (2018)	Wendell Holland	Domenick Abbate & Laurel Johnson (6–5 – tie broken by Laurel)	New
S37 – David vs. Goliath (2018)	Nick Wilson	Angelina Keeley & Mike White (7–3–0)	New
S38 – Edge of Extinction (2019)	Chris Underwood	Gavin Whitson & Julie Rosenberg (9–4–0)	Mixed (4 returning)
S39 – Island of the Idols (2019)	Tommy Sheehan	Dean Kowalski & Noura Salman (8–2–0)	New (mentors not contestants)
S40 – Winners at War (2020)	Tony Vlachos	Natalie Anderson & Michele Fitzgerald (12–4–0)	Returning (all past winners)
S41 (2021)	Erika Casupanan	Deshawn Radden & Xander Hastings (7–1–0)	New
S42 (2022)	Maryanne Oketch	Mike Turner & Romeo Escobar (7–1–0)	New
S43 (2022)	Mike Gabler	Cassidy Clark & Owen Knight (7–1–0)	New
S44 (2023)	Yam Yam Arocho	Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt & Carolyn Wiger (7–1–0)	New
S45 (2023)	Dee Valladares	Austin Li Coon & Julie Alley (5–3–0)	New
S46 (2024)	Kenzie Petty	Charlie Davis & Ben Katzman (5–3–0)	New
S47 (2024)	Rachel LaMont	Sam Phalen & Sue Smey (7–1–0)	New
S48 (2025)	Kyle Fraser	Eva Erickson & Joe Hunter (5–2–1)	New
S49 (2026)	Savannah Louie	Sophi Balerdi & Sage Ahrens-Nichols (5–2–1)	New

What do these stats tell us? Historically, landslide unanimous votes are rare, having occurred in only five previous seasons. The most recent was 17 seasons ago. That doesn’t mean 50 won’t have a unanimous winner, but the sheer number of jurors and different perspectives on gameplay will make that particularly difficult.

My prediction for vote count in final tribal council

After a scan of the jury and a little time to stew on it, I cautiously favor the “Above 8” market. Should the existing Kalshi markets prove correct, then I see Aubry snatching the vast majority of votes, with Jonathan, should he make it, earning a few from players like Ozzy or Coach. I’m leaving Joe completely out of the picture here because, while he seems like a nice gent, ill-defined claims of “honor” aren’t always vote-worthy.

If Rizo or Tiff defy the odds and make it to Final Tribal, that picture becomes a lot different, and I would call it a much closer race.

We’ll see what happens on Wednesday!