Meta is reportedly working on a stand-alone prediction market-style app, a sign that one of the world’s largest social media companies sees prediction markets as more than a regulated trading product.
The app, internally called Arena, was directed by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, according to a New York Times report, which cited two employees with knowledge of the matter. Arena would resemble prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, but users would wager points rather than real money, the report said. (Meta declined to comment to the Times.)
The points-based structure could make Arena more of a social game than a direct competitor to real-money prediction markets, at least initially. But the project shows how quickly the format has moved from niche trading venues into mainstream consumer technology.
The report also appeared to catch investors’ attention. CNBC reported that shares of DraftKings and Flutter, the parent company of FanDuel, fell after the Times story, signaling that investors may view even a points-based Meta product as a potential threat to real-money trading companies.
Points-based model could give Meta a lower-risk test
The reported points-based structure could allow Meta to test prediction markets without immediately entering the regulatory fight surrounding real-money event contracts.
If users are not wagering money, Arena would look less like Kalshi or Polymarket’s U.S. platforms and more like a free-to-play social game built around forecasts, competition, leaderboards and sharing. That could make the app easier to launch broadly, including internationally, while still teaching users the mechanics that have powered real-money prediction markets.
The model could also function as a top-of-funnel product for real-money gaming. Meta could use Arena to build an audience around prediction behavior first, then decide whether to move deeper into the space through a regulated product, a partnership or an acquisition.
If Meta eventually wanted to offer real-money event contracts in the U.S., it would likely have three basic paths:
- Apply for Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval and build its own exchange
- Acquire an already-approved exchange
- Partner with an existing designated contract market (DCM)
Each option would bring Meta closer to the legal and political fights already surrounding sports and election markets.
Meta has history of remaking popular digital trends
Arena would fit a familiar Meta product strategy of identifying a fast-growing online behavior, rebuilding it around social sharing, and using Meta’s vast distribution to test whether it can become a mainstream habit.
The company has repeatedly responded to popular digital formats by creating its own versions inside its apps or through stand-alone products. Instagram Stories followed the rise of Snapchat’s disappearing posts, Instagram Reels became Meta’s answer to TikTok-style short-form video, and Threads was built around the short-form, real-time public conversation format popularized by Twitter, now X.
Prediction markets could be the next format Meta sees as engaging enough to repackage for a wider audience. Rather than starting with regulated trading, Arena would appear to focus on the underlying behavior that has helped prediction markets gain traction: making forecasts, comparing results and sharing opinions around sports, politics, entertainment and other news of the day.
Prediction markets already moving toward social products
Meta would not be the first company to test prediction markets without real-money trading. Manifold Markets, one of the better-known play-money prediction market platforms, describes itself as a social prediction game where users trade on news, politics, technology and AI with virtual currency. Its surrounding community has also helped organize Manifest, an annual Berkeley conference focused on forecasting and prediction markets.
Meta also has its own history in the category. As the New York Times story notes, the company launched Forecast in 2020 as an experimental app that let users make predictions using points, before shutting it down in 2022. Arena would revisit a similar idea in a very different market, after Kalshi and Polymarket helped turn prediction markets into a far larger consumer category.
Real-money prediction markets have also been adding more social features. Kalshi has long allowed users to comment on markets, but its app now features a dedicated Social section on the main page. Last year, Kalshi and Polymarket both announced partnerships with X, reflecting the overlap between prediction markets and the real-time social platforms where sports, politics and cultural events are already debated.
While Kalshi and Polymarket are trying to make markets more social, Meta may be trying to make social media more predictive.
Meta brings scale to prediction market format
According to the Times report, the Arena project remains experimental and may never launch. But Meta’s interest shows how prediction markets are increasingly being treated as a consumer engagement format, not only as a regulated trading product.
That could matter even if Arena never handles real money. A points-based app backed by Meta’s distribution could introduce prediction market mechanics to a far larger audience than existing exchanges or forecasting communities have reached.
For Meta, the question may not be whether prediction markets are a new asset class. It may be whether predictions are a new feed.
