UFC 331 heads to Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California, on Saturday. In the main event, flyweight champion Joshua Van defends his title against former champion Alexandre Pantoja in a rematch of their first meeting, which ended after only 26 seconds because of Pantoja’s arm injury.
The five-fight main card gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET and the early prelims kicking off the action at 5:30 p.m. ET.
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Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2 – UFC Flyweight Championship
| Polymarket contract | Implied probability | Example Return |
|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van to win | 57% | $100 > $175.40 |
| Alexandre Pantoja to win | 44% | $100 > $227.30 |
| Fight goes the distance: Yes | 34% | $100 > $294.10 |
| Fight goes the distance: No | 67% | $100 > $149.30 |
| Joshua Van by KO/TKO | 34% | $100 > $294.10 |
| Alexandre Pantoja by submission | 26% | $100 > $384.60 |
Joshua Van’s first victory over Alexandre Pantoja answered almost none of the technical questions surrounding this matchup. Van captured the title when Pantoja suffered a serious arm injury during a scramble only 26 seconds into their UFC 323 meeting, producing an official TKO without giving traders a meaningful sample of how their skills interact. This rematch is therefore closer to a fresh matchup than a conventional sequel.
Van is a compact pressure boxer who builds combinations behind speed, body work and sustained output. He is at his best when he can claim the center, force an opponent backward and turn single strikes into three- or four-punch sequences. His youth could become increasingly important if the fight reaches the championship rounds: Van is 24, while the former champion is 36.
The 57% price on Van indicates only a modest advantage, not overwhelming market confidence. His 34% KO/TKO contract accounts for most of that projected win probability, showing that traders see his pressure and volume as more likely to produce a stoppage than a clean five-round decision. That interpretation also fits the 67% price on the fight not reaching the judges.
Pantoja presents a completely different danger. He is comfortable creating disorder, attaching himself to an opponent during transitions and taking the back when a scramble becomes uncontrolled. He also owns considerably more championship experience and enters the rematch with a 30-6 professional record, compared with Van’s 17-2 mark. If he can turn Van’s forward pressure into clinch entries or reactive takedowns, the striking momentum could disappear quickly.
The 26¢ Pantoja submission contract identifies the challenger’s clearest finishing route. However, Pantoja does not necessarily need an immediate submission to benefit from grappling. Mat returns, back-control sequences, and repeated clinch battles could reduce Van’s output while forcing the younger champion to expend energy defending positions.
The question is whether the 67% “No” price overstates the likelihood of a finish. Both men have credible stopping routes, but they also have the experience and durability to survive bad positions. Because their first encounter revealed practically nothing, the distance market demands traders make assumptions about a matchup they have not yet seen develop beyond its opening exchange.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy
| Polymarket contract | Implied probability | Example Return |
|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan to win | 73% | $100 > $137.00 |
| Mauricio Ruffy to win | 28% | $100 > $357.10 |
| Fight goes the distance: Yes | 24% | $100 > $416.70 |
| Fight goes the distance: No | 77% | $100 > $129.90 |
| Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO | 22% | $100 > $454.50 |
| Arman Tsarukyan by submission | 34% | $100 > $294.10 |
Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy meet in a five-round lightweight co-main event with significant title implications. Tsarukyan enters on a five-fight winning streak, while Ruffy brings a 14-2 record featuring 13 knockout victories. Those numbers immediately explain why Polymarket assigns only 24% to a decision.
Tsarukyan’s 73% price is rooted in his ability to control where the fight takes place. He can wrestle through multiple phases rather than relying on one clean double-leg attempt. If an opponent defends the first shot, Tsarukyan can switch grips, run the pipe, attack from the body lock, or continue driving his man toward the fence. That chain wrestling is particularly valuable against a dangerous striker because it denies the opponent the opportunity to reset at range.
The 34% submission contract is especially revealing. It represents almost half of Tsarukyan’s overall win probability and suggests the market expects prolonged grappling control eventually to expose Ruffy’s neck or back. Yet traders should distinguish between a fighter possessing a grappling advantage and that fighter necessarily winning by submission. Tsarukyan could dominate wrestling exchanges without finding a finish, or his pressure could produce a ground-and-pound stoppage that would not cash the submission contract.
Ruffy’s 28% outright price is closely connected to his 22% KO/TKO number. In other words, the prediction market assigns relatively little probability to Ruffy winning by submission or decision. His route is built around timing Tsarukyan during entries, punishing predictable level changes and creating damaging exchanges before the favorite can establish control.
The longer format creates another strategic layer. Ruffy cannot sell out on every counter because missed power shots and repeated takedown defenses could drain his gas tank. Tsarukyan, meanwhile, must avoid becoming too comfortable with his wrestling entries. Ruffy only needs a brief opening to land a knee, uppercut, or intercepting combination.
The 77¢ “No” contract is expensive because both leading method props point toward a stoppage. Nevertheless, it leaves little room for a slower tactical fight in which Ruffy conserves energy, and Tsarukyan prioritizes position over damage. The early rounds should reveal whether the market’s aggressive finish projection is justified.
Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi
| Polymarket contract | Implied probability | Example Return |
|---|---|---|
| Patricio Pitbull to win | 29% | $100 > $344.80 |
| Doo Ho Choi to win | 72% | $100 > $138.90 |
Patricio “Pitbull” Freire versus Doo Ho Choi is a classic resume-versus-current-form matchup. Pitbull carries a 37-9 record, dangerous counterpunching, and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, while Choi enters at 17-4-1 with 14 knockout victories and meaningful physical advantages.
Choi’s 72% price reflects his recent offensive momentum. He has won three consecutive fights by knockout, and his combination of length, accuracy, and commitment to exchanges can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace. At four inches taller with a three-inch reach advantage, Choi should have opportunities to initiate combinations before Pitbull reaches his preferred countering range.
That does not make the matchup technically simple. Choi’s willingness to exchange creates openings, and Pitbull has spent much of his career exploiting precisely those moments. The veteran does not need to win every minute if he can draw Choi forward, slip the first shot and respond with a compact counter.
Pitbull also owns the more developed grappling threat. His 12 career submission victories give him a way to change the fight if Choi becomes too comfortable boxing at range. Level changes can also disrupt Choi’s rhythm even when they do not produce extended control.
The market is effectively asking whether Pitbull’s experience and versatility can compensate for age, size, and declining activity. At 29%, traders acknowledge that he has legitimate tactical routes, but they are heavily weighting Choi’s fresher form. Without separate method or distance contracts in the supplied market, the outright price must account for several different fight shapes: a Choi-led kickboxing match, a measured counterstriking contest, or a grappling-heavy veteran performance.
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
| Polymarket contract | Implied probability | Example Return |
|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson to win | 93% | $100 > $107.50 |
| Sean Sharaf to win | 8% | $100 > $1,250.00 |
Gable Steveson is the card’s largest prediction market favorite at 93%. The Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medalist enters with a 4-0 MMA record and four first-round knockout victories, while Sean Sharaf has been stopped in both of his UFC appearances.
The wrestling threat changes every exchange before Steveson even attempts a takedown. Sharaf cannot plant his feet freely to throw heavyweight combinations because any extended commitment gives Steveson an opportunity to change levels. That hesitation can create openings for Steveson’s developing striking, especially when Sharaf backs toward the fence.
Steveson’s athleticism also gives him multiple finishing routes once contact occurs. He can drive through takedowns, control from top position, or force opponents into awkward defensive reactions before landing ground strikes. At heavyweight, where fighters often struggle to regain their feet after being flattened, that skill set can be especially punishing.
The 93¢ price nevertheless comes with a demanding risk profile. A winning contract returns only seven cents in profit before any fees for every 93¢ risked. Sharaf’s 8% contract reflects the inherent danger present in every heavyweight fight: one clean punch, a mistimed entry, or an unexpected scramble can overturn a substantial skill gap.
Another consideration is the limited MMA footage available on Steveson. Four rapid finishes demonstrate explosiveness but provide little evidence about his pacing, defensive reactions, or performance after the first round. The market is pricing his elite wrestling background and early professional dominance rather than a deep MMA sample. That may be entirely rational, but it means the 93% figure depends heavily on projection.
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Alonzo Menifield
| Polymarket contract | Implied probability | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski to win | 70% | $100 > $142.90 |
| Alonzo Menifield to win | 31% | $100 > $322.60 |
Iwo Baraniewski opens the main card against Alonzo Menifield in a light heavyweight matchup seemingly designed for immediate violence. The unbeaten Baraniewski carries a 9-0 record with nine first-round finishes, seven knockouts, and two submissions, while Menifield owns 11 first-round finishes and substantial UFC experience.
The 70% price on Baraniewski reflects the market’s faith in his opening-round pressure. He closes distance rapidly, throws with both hands, and is willing to accept defensive risk to overwhelm opponents before they settle. That approach is particularly relevant against Menifield, who has suffered multiple early knockout defeats.
However, Baraniewski’s perfect finishing record also produces one of the matchup’s biggest unknowns. He has never had to demonstrate how his pace, defense, and decision-making hold up after the opening five minutes. If Menifield survives the first wave, the fight could look dramatically different in Round 2.
Menifield’s 31% price is not based merely on veteran survival. He possesses serious counter power and a reach advantage, making Baraniewski’s aggressive entries dangerous in both directions. The prospect absorbs shots while delivering his own offense, and that exchange-heavy style gives Menifield opportunities to land a short right hand as Baraniewski crosses into the pocket.
This market comes down to whether early momentum deserves more weight than proven experience. Baraniewski’s first-round track record explains the 70¢ price, but Menifield has faced a much deeper level of opposition. With no supplied distance or method contracts, traders must decide whether they are comfortable paying a premium for explosiveness without knowing how the favorite responds if his initial attack fails.
Prelims to Watch
Marlon Vera versus Charles Jourdain is the most technically significant preliminary bout. Jourdain enters on a three-fight winning streak since moving to bantamweight, while the No. 10-ranked Vera is attempting to stop a four-fight skid. Jourdain’s pace and varied offense contrast with Vera’s measured style, durability, and late-round damage, making the scoring of the opening round particularly important.
Tai Tuivasa versus Robelis Despaigne offers the highest volatility. Tuivasa remains a dangerous pocket puncher but enters on a seven-fight losing streak, while Despaigne’s exceptional reach and raw power have not erased questions about his defensive wrestling, pacing, and overall development. Heavyweight power gives either man a rapid finishing route, although their recent performances create more uncertainty than the wide sportsbook line might suggest.
The early prelims also contain two compelling striker-versus-pressure matchups. Edmen Shahbazyan and Brunno Ferreira bring considerable finishing ability at middleweight, while Giga Chikadze must use his kicks and counter timing to stop Joanderson Brito from crashing the pocket and turning their featherweight contest into a brawl. Casey O’Neill versus Eduarda Moura adds a ranked women’s flyweight matchup, giving traders a contrasting change of pace from the knockout-heavy fights surrounding it.
Trading on UFC 331 at Polymarket
Prediction markets give traders the flexibility to enter or exit positions before the contract resolves. UFC Fight cards tend to be actively traded. When markets are liquid, you can live trade as it happens based on new developments.
Market prices can shift quickly near fight time, so traders should confirm the current contract price, liquidity, and settlement terms before entering any position. The speculative nature of prediction markets means there are no guarantees when trading on outcomes.
