Spain, Portugal, and Switzerland became the latest teams to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 yesterday.
They will join Canada, Mexico, France, Norway, Brazil, Morocco, Paraguay, England, Belgium, and the USA. Several elite teams will bid to join them in the next round by winning their games today.
Prediction markets give Argentina an 86% chance of beating Cape Verde in regulation time today. La Albiceleste are trading at 94% with Polymarket and 92% with Kalshi to advance to the Round of 16 at Cape Verde’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
The first game of the day sees Australia take on Egypt in Dallas. Argentina and Cape Verde will then play out a David vs. Goliath battle before Colombia takes on Ghana in Kansas City.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Argentina vs. Cape Verde matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 6 p.m. ET on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
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Argentina vs. Cape Verde, 6 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Argentina vs. Cape Verde (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction sites expect Argentina to secure a heavy win against Cape Verde when the teams clash in Miami this evening. Cape Verde has drawn all three games so far at this tournament, but it will be difficult for the Blue Sharks to contain Lionel Messi. He plays for Inter Miami, so he should benefit from the crowd’s backing in this game.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Argentina) | 94% | 92% |
| To Advance (Cape Verde) | 7% | 8% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Argentina) | 87% | 86% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 11% | 11% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Cape Verde) | 4% | 4% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Argentina -2.5) | 41% | 42% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Cape Verde +2.5) | 60% | 59% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 61% | 61% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 40% | 40% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 32% | 33% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 69% | 68% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Argentina) | 85% | 85% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Cape Verde) | 11% | 11% |
How Argentina vs. Cape Verde breaks down
Messi celebrated his 39th birthday last week, but Argentina’s captain shows no signs of slowing down. He fired in a hat-trick to inspire his team to a 3-0 win against Algeria at the start of this tournament, before scoring both goals in a 2-0 victory over Austria. Manager Lionel Scaloni gave Messi a breather on Matchday 3, but he came off the bench to score a free kick in a 3-1 win against Jordan.
That means Messi is now the favorite to win the World Cup Golden Boot this summer. He’s the all-time leading goalscorer in this competition, and he’s priced at 67% with Kalshi to find the back of the net in this match. The supporting cast is extremely talented, featuring the likes of Lautaro Martínez and Enzo Fernández, so Argentina is trading at 41% with Polymarket to cover a 2.5-goal spread today. Another option is to back Argentina to score over 2.5 goals in the game at 51% with Polymarket, as it has averaged 2.67 goals per match so far.
Cape Verde deserves credit for finishing second in its group. The Blue Sharks secured an improbable 0-0 draw with Spain, courtesy of Vozinha’s goalkeeping heroics, before drawing 2-2 with an out-of-sorts Uruguay. They then played out a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia to advance to the Round of 32, but traders think that this could be the end of the road for Cape Verde.
Spain winger Lamine Yamal missed most of that 0-0 draw, so this will be the first time that Cape Verde’s defense has faced elite forwards for 90 minutes at this tournament. The team repeatedly defied the odds, but it could finally run out of steam against Messi today.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are two more World Cup matchups taking place today. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them.
Australia vs. Egypt, 2 p.m. ET
Traders expect a tight, low-scoring game between Australia and Egypt in Dallas. Over 2.5 goals is priced at just 35%, and a 0-0 draw is trading at 14%.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Australia vs. Egypt (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Australia) | 42% | 42% |
| To Advance (Egypt) | 59% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Australia) | 27% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 34% | 34% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Egypt) | 41% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Australia +1.5) | 83% | 83% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Egypt -1.5) | 18% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 63% | 63% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 38% | 38% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 45% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 56% | 55% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Australia) | 38% | 38% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 14% | 12% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Egypt) | 51% | 53% |
Egypt remains unbeaten at this tournament. The Pharaohs drew 1-1 with a strong Belgium team on Matchday 1, before easing to a 3-1 win against New Zealand. They then clinched second place in Group G after drawing 1-1 with Iran.
The defense has looked vulnerable, but Mohamed Salah, Trézéguet, Mostafa Ziko, and Omar Marmoush are dangerous in attack. Salah is expected to play in this game despite picking up a hamstring strain against Iran, which would give Egypt a major boost.
Australia began the 2026 World Cup with a famous 2-0 win against Türkiye. The Socceroos didn’t have much possession, but they were devastating on the counterattack. They then lost 2-0 to the USMNT, but a 0-0 draw with Paraguay earned them a place in the Round of 32.
Prediction markets give Egypt a slight edge in this game, and that makes sense. The Pharaohs have a lot more firepower than Australia, and if they can unleash the likes of Salah, Marmoush, and Trézéguet, they should advance to the next round.
Colombia vs. Ghana, 9:30 p.m. ET
The final game of the day sees Colombia take on Ghana at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Colombia is the heavy favorite to advance, but it will need to overcome a well-drilled Ghana defense.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Colombia vs. Ghana (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Colombia) | 81% | 79% |
| To Advance (Ghana) | 20% | 21% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Colombia) | 69% | 68% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 22% | 23% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Ghana) | 10% | 11% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Colombia -1.5) | 42% | 43% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Ghana +1.5) | 59% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 46% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 55% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 41% | 42% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 60% | 59% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Colombia) | 70% | 70% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 8% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Ghana) | 22% | 23% |
Colombia finished top of Group K after picking up seven points from three games. Los Cafeteros beat Uzbekistan and DR Congo before drawing 0-0 with Portugal on Matchday 3. Their reward is a Round of 32 clash with Ghana, which finished third in Group L.
Ghana was a little fortunate to beat Panama 1-0 on Matchday 1, but the Black Stars were superb in defense in a 0-0 draw with England. However, they lost 2-1 to Croatia in the group stage closer, so they now face a stern test of their mettle against Colombia.
The Ghanaians have been content to sit back in a low block, absorb pressure, and launch occasional counterattacks at this tournament. Colombia should dominate possession in this game, and it will win if key players like Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez are on song. Ghana’s reputation for defensive solidity was dented in that 2-1 defeat to Croatia, so it’s easy to see why Colombia is priced at 68% with Kalshi to win this game in regulation time.
Round of 16 starts tomorrow
The Round of 32 concludes today, but there’s no time for soccer fans to catch their breath, as the World Cup Round of 16 gets underway tomorrow. There are two big games on Saturday’s slate:
- Canada vs. Morocco
- Paraguay vs. France
The action continues on Sunday with Brazil vs. Norway at MetLife Stadium and Mexico vs. England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
