Spain and Belgium became the latest heavyweights to qualify for the World Cup Round of 32 after securing crucial wins yesterday. The bracket is starting to take shape, as nine games are already set, including Morocco vs. Netherlands and Brazil vs. Japan.
Prediction markets give England an 85% chance of beating Panama in a crucial game today. The other matchup in Group L sees Croatia take on Ghana. Group K will then conclude with a blockbuster clash between Colombia and Portugal, plus DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan, before Group J wraps up with Jordan vs. Argentina and Algeria vs. Austria.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Panama vs. England matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 5 p.m. ET on FOX from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Panama vs. England (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Panama) | 6% | 6% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 11% | 11% |
| Moneyline (England) | 85% | 85% |
| Spread (Panama +2.5) | 57% | 57% |
| Spread (England -2.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 46% | 47% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 55% | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 42% | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 59% | 59% |
| First Team to Score (Panama) | 14% | 16% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 3% | 4% |
| First Team to Score (England) | 83% | 84% |
England should win Group L if it secures a heavy win against Panama today. Prediction sites expect a comfortable win for the Three Lions, as Panama has already been eliminated.
How Panama vs. England breaks down
England began its World Cup campaign with an impressive 4-2 win against Croatia, but it could only draw 0-0 with Ghana on Matchday 2. That result left England and Ghana level on four points apiece at the top of Group L, but England has a slightly better goal difference.
The Three Lions will be keen to win their group. If they finish first, they will face the third-place team from Group I, J, or K in the Round of 32. England would be the heavy favorite to win that game. It would also ensure that England ends up on the opposite side of the bracket to France and Spain. If England finishes second in Group L, it will face either Portugal or Colombia in the Round of 32 – a much tougher assignment. The Three Lions would also go into the same side of the bracket as France and Spain, denting their chances of reaching the final.
That means the players should be fired up for this game against Panama. Los Canaleros have already been eliminated after losing 1-0 to Ghana and 1-0 to Croatia. They haven’t scored at this tournament, so “both teams to score – no” is priced at 59% for this game.
Panama’s players could lack motivation, so England is a heavy favorite. The Three Lions will aim to secure a heavy win to bolster their goal difference, and you can unlock more value by backing them to cover a 2.5-goal spread at 44%. Captain Harry Kane scored twice against Croatia, but he missed a glorious chance against Ghana. He’ll be desperate to make amends, and he’s priced at 60% with Polymarket to score today.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There are five more World Cup matchups taking place today. We’re now on Matchday 3, so all four teams in each group need to play simultaneously. That’s designed to prevent any team from gaining an unfair tactical advantage.
Croatia vs. Ghana, 5 p.m. ET
Both of these teams can still win Group L, so the stakes will be high when Croatia and Ghana lock horns in Philadelphia. Prediction markets make Croatia the favorite, but traders expect a tight game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Croatia vs. Ghana (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Croatia) | 52% | 51% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 31% | 30% |
| Moneyline (Ghana) | 19% | 20% |
| Spread (Croatia -1.5) | 26% | 27% |
| Spread (Ghana +1.5) | 75% | 74% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 40% | 40% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 61% | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 46% | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 55% | 54% |
| First Team to Score (Croatia) | 57% | 58% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 13% | 12% |
| First Team to Score (Ghana) | 32% | 30% |
Ghana is on four points after beating Panama 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with England. The Black Stars’ defense has been superb, and goalkeeper Lawrence Ati-Zigi has been reliable when called upon. Croatia bounced back from that 4-2 defeat to England by beating Panama 1-0, courtesy of Ante Budimir’s second-half strike. They’re now just one point behind England and Ghana, so they can still finish first if they win this match.
Croatia is the favorite, but it will be difficult for the Croats to break down this well-drilled Ghanaian defense. For that reason, under 2.5 goals is priced at 61%. Ghana will be content to sit back, absorb pressure, and spring counterattacks, safe in the knowledge that a draw would guarantee a top-two finish. The onus is on Croatia to attack, so Croatia to score first at 57% with Polymarket could be popular.
Colombia vs. Portugal, 7:30 p.m. ET
These teams will fight for first place in Group K when they clash in Miami. Portugal is the favorite, but Colombia’s players are full of confidence right now.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Colombia vs. Portugal (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Colombia) | 28% | 28% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 25% | 25% |
| Moneyline (Portugal) | 49% | 50% |
| Spread (Colombia +1.5) | 76% | 76% |
| Spread (Portugal -1.5) | 25% | 25% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 54% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 47% | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 58% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 43% | 43% |
| First Team to Score (Colombia) | 36% | 36% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 8% |
| First Team to Score (Portugal) | 57% | 55% |
Colombia sits at the top of Group K after beating Uzbekistan 3-1 and Congo DR 1-0 in its first two games. Portugal is second, two points behind Colombia. Roberto Martínez’s men could only draw 1-1 with Congo DR in their opener, but they bounced back with a superb 5-0 win against Uzbekistan on Matchday 2.
Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan, and he’s priced at 44% to find the back of the net in this game. Bruno Fernandes, who just broke the Premier League assist record, set up one of Ronaldo’s goals. He’s trading at 20% to provide an assist against Colombia.
A draw would be enough for Colombia to win the group, so Portugal is likely to be the aggressor in this game. It’s priced at 57% to score first, which looks interesting, although Portugal will be wary of Luis Díaz’s pace on the counterattack.
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan, 7:30 p.m. ET
DR Congo will clinch a place in the Round of 32 if it beats Uzbekistan in Atlanta. The Leopards are the favorites for this game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (DR Congo) | 61% | 62% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 24% |
| Moneyline (Uzbekistan) | 17% | 18% |
| Spread (DR Congo -1.5) | 34% | 34% |
| Spread (Uzbekistan +1.5) | 67% | 67% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 45% | 45% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 56% | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 46% | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 55% | 54% |
| First Team to Score (DR Congo) | 65% | 63% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 9% |
| First Team to Score (Uzbekistan) | 31% | 33% |
DR Congo produced a gutsy performance to draw 1-1 with Portugal in its opener. The team then suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Colombia, but it can still reach the knockout stage. DR Congo simply needs to beat Uzbekistan, as that would ensure that it finishes as one of the eight best third-place teams in the group stage.
Uzbekistan has been eliminated after losing to Colombia and Portugal. The White Wolves will be playing for national pride, but DR Congo’s players have a far greater incentive to win this game. The Leopards are priced at 61% with Polymarket to win, and they could prevail if they can get the ball to striker Yoane Wissa in the box.
Jordan vs. Argentina, 11 p.m. ET
This is a dead rubber, as Jordan has already been eliminated and Argentina has already won Group J. However, prediction markets still expect a comfortable win for Argentina in Dallas.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Jordan vs. Argentina (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Jordan) | 5% | 6% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 11% | 11% |
| Moneyline (Argentina) | 86% | 86% |
| Spread (Jordan +2.5) | 58% | 57% |
| Spread (Argentina -2.5) | 43% | 44% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 42% | 42% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 59% | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 38% | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 63% | 64% |
| First Team to Score (Jordan) | 15% | 12% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 4% |
| First Team to Score (Argentina) | 84% | 84% |
Lionel Messi has scored all five of Argentina’s goals so far at this summer’s World Cup. He fired in a hat-trick during La Albiceleste’s 3-0 win against Algeria, before scoring twice in a 2-0 victory over Austria. He has just celebrated his 39th birthday, so manager Lionel Scaloni may give Messi a well-deserved breather to keep him fresh for the knockout stage.
That could give Argentina’s reserves a chance to shine. Julián Álvarez, who played a starring role in the team’s World Cup triumph in 2022, hasn’t featured much at this tournament. He could be handed a start in this game, and he’s priced at 49% with Kalshi to score. Regardless of who plays, Argentina should be far too strong for Jordan, and it’s priced at 43% with Polymarket to cover a 2.5-goal spread.
Algeria vs. Austria, 11 p.m. ET
These teams will both qualify for the Round of 32 if they draw in Kansas City. The draw is trading at 47% with Polymarket and 45% with Kalshi.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Algeria vs. Austria (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Algeria) | 23% | 23% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 47% | 45% |
| Moneyline (Austria) | 33% | 34% |
| Spread (Algeria +1.5) | 88% | 88% |
| Spread (Austria -1.5) | 13% | 13% |
| Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 57% | 57% |
| Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 43% | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 58% | 58% |
| First Team to Score (Algeria) | 37% | 33% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 22% | 23% |
| First Team to Score (Austria) | 47% | 47% |
Algeria began its World Cup campaign with a 3-0 defeat to Argentina, but it bounced back by beating Jordan 2-1. Austria clinched a 3-1 win against Jordan before losing 2-0 to Argentina earlier this week. That result left these teams level on three points, although Austria has a better goal difference.
If they draw this game, both teams will advance to the knockout stage. We saw a similar situation when Australia faced Paraguay a couple of days ago, and that game ended in a tie. The same was true of the game between Japan and Sweden, which finished 2-2. Prediction markets have seemingly priced in those results, as a draw is now trading at 45% to 47% in this game.
Knockout stage begins tomorrow
Several teams will book their places in the World Cup Round of 32 today. The knockout stage will get underway tomorrow, with South Africa vs. Canada at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and soccer fans can then look forward to three games on Monday:
- Brazil vs. Japan
- Germany vs. Paraguay
- Netherlands vs. Morocco
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
