The 2026 FIFA World Cup heads to SoFi Stadium for a high-stakes Group D finale on Thursday, with seeding in the knockout rounds on the line as the host United States takes on Turkiye.
The match kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on FOX.
Kalshi odds have the surging USMNT as the team to beat in their Group D finale tonight. New Kalshi users can use promo code RATE to claim a $10 trading bonus for the 2026 USA vs. Turkiye match.
How to claim the Kalshi $10 bonus for Turkiye vs USA
Enter the promo code RATE when creating a new Kalshi account to claim a $10 trading bonus for World Cup markets. Here are the steps to follow to sign up and claim the bonus.
- Download the Kalshi app: Install the free Kalshi app for your iOS or Android device and begin the registration process. You can also visit the website and click on the Sign Up button.
- Enter the promo code RATE: Enter the Kalshi promo code RATE when prompted during the sign-up process.
- Verify your identity. You will need a valid driver’s license or passport to verify your identity.
- Fund your account: Deposit and trade $10 on any market using one of the accepted payment options, including a bank account, debit cards, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- Place your first trade. Review the market rules and make your first trade on the Turkiye vs USA match or any other World Cup market. Kalshi will credit your account with the $10 bonus after the market settles.
Check out our Kalshi promo code guide for the full terms and conditions. Enter the Kalshi code for your state
| Promo Code | Eligible States |
|---|---|
| RATE | All States + DC, excluding AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, and OH |
2026 World Cup market odds: Turkiye vs. USA
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Turkiye | 26% | +285 |
| USA | 54% | -117 |
| Draw | 23% | +335 |
| USA to win by 1.5 goals | 31% | +223 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 59% | -144 |
| Both teams to score | 24% | +317 |
| Goal scorer: Folarin Balogun – USA | 31% | +223 |
Turkiye vs. USA preview
The U.S. has already clinched the top spot in Group D with a perfect six points, setting up a uniquely tricky dynamic at SoFi Stadium. Manager Mauricio Pochettino can afford to rotate his squad. Important players such as Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie will likely be rested to avoid unnecessary injuries. The same applies to players with yellow cards to avoid potential suspension before the Round of 32.
Meanwhile, Turkiye are bottom of the table and has been mathematically eliminated. Despite their early exit this time around, this Turkish squad came in as a trendy tournament dark horse and will be highly motivated to save their pride and snap the host nation’s unblemished run.
Trading on the USMNT is a gamble in itself, as the team’s tactical focus will likely shift toward squad rotation. Traders should take into consideration the recent match-up history as Turkiye beat the USA 2-1 in a friendly just one year ago, with goals from Real Madrid phenom Arda Güler and Kerem Aktürkoğlu. Both will be looking to take advantage of a rotated American backline.
As dead rubber games can be unpredictable, prediction market traders on Kalshi might find a better edge by looking beyond Thursday’s 90 minutes altogether and placing a bet on the USA’s broader futures markets, such as its chances of advancing to the quarterfinals now that its knockout path is materializing.
Why trade Turkiye vs. USA on Kalshi
Trading this matchup on Kalshi offers a different dynamic than traditional sports betting. Instead of placing a fixed wager before kickoff and waiting for the final whistle, prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts in real-time as the game unfolds. With the heavily rotated USMNT roster and a motivated Turkish side, every tactical change, substitution, and shot on goal will lead to wild swings in the chances for the match outcome.
The live trading aspect allows you to enter a position when you see value and exit it early to lock in profits or limit losses, giving you more of the agility of a financial trader taking advantage of volatile news rather than that of a casual sports bettor. If you want to get a taste of this breakneck environment yourself, signing up with promo code RATE locks in a $10 trading bonus, putting you in an instant position to deploy across tonight’s Group D finale markets.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
