The Alabama Senate runoff will be another test of President Donald Trump’s endorsement power, as prediction markets are heavily trading on it.
The Republican runoff on Tuesday looks a lot like recent races, where the market figured out the result before all the votes were counted. Rep. Barry Moore received the most votes in the first primary, and prediction markets still treat the Trump-backed candidate as the clear favorite. Meanwhile, former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson is running as an anti-establishment candidate and hopes to consolidate the votes spread amongst other candidates in the first round. And Hudson is polling well in recent surveys.
Moore is sitting around 80% on Kalshi and 84% on Polymarket. Prediction markets accurately called Senate primary wins for Trump-backed candidates in Texas and Louisiana against incumbents. More recently, however, they’ve missed in states like Iowa and South Carolina.
And in a deep-red state like Alabama, this is the race for the winner. Prediction markets favor the Republican candidate at 95% in the general election.
Trump’s Alabama Senate prediction markets edge
The bigger pattern here is pretty familiar by now. Trump has had some big wins when he puts his weight behind a candidate. But the picture has been messier in a few other states, where the endorsement didn’t produce the kind of clean sweep his allies probably wanted.
Alabama is now sitting in that same middle ground. It’s not a guaranteed coronation, but not a race that looks seriously threatened either.
But 80%-84% odds on Kalshi and Polymarket are not just a slight lean. It is a signal that the market sees the Trump-backed candidate as the most likely winner and is waiting for the runoff to confirm what the first primary already suggested.
Where the runoff is really decided
Runoffs in deep-red states are usually about consolidation more than persuasion. The candidates eliminated in the first round leave behind a pile of voters, and the winner is often the one who can gather the larger share of that second-choice energy.
That is the part to watch in Alabama. If Moore can hold most of the voters who already broke his way, the market is probably right to keep him near the top. If Hudson can make the runoff a protest vote against the Trump lane, then the race becomes a little less tidy.
But even that sounds harder than it usually is in a state like Alabama. The combination of Moore’s first-round strength and Trump’s endorsement makes the default case pretty straightforward.
What this says about Trump
Trump’s endorsement is still the most powerful force in Republican primaries. That is especially true in deep-red states where base voters are already inclined to follow his lead. Prediction markets have followed that logic throughout the primary season.
But the post-endorsement record is no longer spotless enough to assume every race will behave the same way. That is what makes these markets useful. They show where the endorsement remains an anchor and where it is just one factor in a more complex field.
Alabama is another reminder that Trump’s endorsement still moves many Republican voters, but the magnitude of the shift depends on the state and the field. That leaves Alabama in the same bucket as the other recent Trump endorsement tests and worth watching for what it says about the 2026 primary election map, but not especially mysterious.
