Tonight, the UFC makes history by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., celebrating the 250th anniversary of the United States. Seven fights, two title bouts, and the most politically charged octagon in the sport’s history, and the prediction markets are already on fire with more than $6 million in trading on the main event.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown through the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the two platforms redefining how fans engage with MMA outcomes.
UFC 250 fight card preview: Kalshi vs. Polymarket Freedom markets
Main Event — LW Title: Ilia Topuria (c) vs. Justin Gaethje
The biggest market on the card. Topuria enters 17-0 defending his undisputed lightweight title against interim champion Gaethje (27-5). The markets are decisively behind “El Matador”, Kalshi has Topuria at 79% / Gaethje at 21%, while Polymarket has him at 81%.
With over $6.1 million in trading volume on Kalshi alone, this is the most liquid UFC market of the year. Topuria’s 86% takedown defense and knockout power justify the market’s confidence, but Gaethje at 20¢ represents one of the sharpest underdog entries on the card; if he forces volume into championship rounds, that price will move fast.
| Platform | Topuria | Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79% / 81¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
| Polymarket | 81% / 81¢ | 20% / 20¢ |
Co-Main — Interim HW Title: Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
The closest fight on the card, by market pricing. Pereira sits at 50% on Kalshi / Gane at 50%, an absolute coin flip. Pereira is attempting to become the first three-division UFC champion in history, moving up from light heavyweight. With $2.43 million in volume on Kalshi already flowing, this market is attracting serious, sharp attention. At near-even prices, this is where the most trading value lives and where the most line movement is expected before walkouts.
| Platform | Pereira | Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% / 51¢ | 50% / 50¢ |
| Polymarket | 50% / 50¢ | 51% / 51¢ |
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
O’Malley’s return is treated by the markets as a showcase bout. Kalshi has “Suga” at 77%, with Polymarket aligned at around 79%. With $573K in Kalshi volume and the market relatively stable, there isn’t much edge on the straight outcome. The better angle would be if you think Aiemann Zahabi has a chance to play spoiler in the underdog role again, with his market undervalued at 23¢ on Kalshi / 22¢ on Polymarket.
| Platform | O’Malley | Zahabi |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 77% / 79¢ | 23% / 23¢ |
| Polymarket | 79% / 79¢ | 22% / 22¢ |
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Kalshi prices Ruffy at 82% as one of the biggest favorites on the night and Chandler at 18% . However, Chandler at 40 years old is a proven elite finisher who thrives in chaos, making his 18¢ shares one of the most intriguing value plays of the evening. Live-trading this fight on Polymarket, which lets you adjust positions mid-fight, is the ideal approach if Chandler starts strong and the price compresses.
| Platform | Ruffy | Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 82% / 84¢ | 18% / 18¢ |
| Polymarket | 84% / 84¢ | 18% / 18¢ |
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
Don’t sleep on this heavyweight slobberknocker. Hokit is priced at 77% on Kalshi versus Lewis at 23%, with a massive $1.6 million in volume. Lewis is one of the most dangerous one-shot KO artists in heavyweight history; a single clean punch ends any fight. At 23¢ per share on Kalshi, Lewis offers the most explosive knockout value on the card. If you believe one swing changes everything, Lewis at 23¢ is the sharpest value share of the night.
| Platform | Hokit | Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 77% / 78¢ | 23% / 23¢ |
| Polymarket | 80% / 80¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Among the larger favorites on the card. Nickal is priced at 73% on Kalshi with just $69K in volume, the lowest liquidity on the main card, reflecting the lopsided nature of this matchup. The straight moneyline offers little return.
The smart play on both platforms is Nickal by decision, with prices of 30¢ on Kalshi and 60¢ for the fight to go the distance on Polymarket, where, as long as the fight hits the scorecards, it counts as a yes contract.
| Platform | Nickal | Daukas |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% / 74¢ | 27% / 27¢ |
| Polymarket | 74% / 74¢ | 27% / 27¢ |
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Lopes is priced at 57% on Kalshi versus 43% for Garcia, with $174K in trading volume, making this the closest market of the night. Garcia’s five straight finishes entering this fight and his high strike output create genuine live-underdog potential.
Prediction market traders comfortable with variance should consider Garcia shares, with a 43¢ entry and a 24¢ price to win by KO/TKO, offering great value to open up this historic fight card.
| Platform | Lopes | Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% / 58¢ | 43% / 43¢ |
| Polymarket | 57% / 57¢ | 44% / 44¢ |
How to trade on Freedom 250 with Kalshi and Polymarket
Trading UFC Freedom 250 on prediction markets is essentially buying and selling “yes/no” shares on each fight outcome, with the price reflecting the market’s implied probability (odds). You’re not stuck with your first position either, you can sell back into the market before or during the event to lock in profits or cut losses.
On Kalshi:
- Visit Kalshi’s website, create an account with the Kalshi promo code RATE, and complete the KYC/identity verification process.
- Add money (ACH/bank transfer, debit, or other accepted methods). If you deposit $10, you get a $10 trade bonus for Freedom 250
- Click on the category Sports > MMA > “UFC Freedom 250”.
- Choose a fight market (e.g. “Topuria vs Gaethje”) and select Yes or No shares.
- Check the price currently (e.g. $0.79 = 79% chance) and enter your stake size.
- Just place the order in. If the price moves in your favor you can always place a sell order to get out early.
On Polymarket
- Sign up with email or social login and use the Polymarket promo code RATE to qualify for a $50 bonus.
- Deposit at least $20 (typically by card, bank or supported on-ramp) into your trading balance.
- Navigate to the Sports or UFC section and find the Freedom 250 markets by fight name.
- Click on a specific market (e.g. “Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria”) and select to buy Yes or No shares.
- View the live price and depth. Decide how much to risk. Confirm the trade.
- Hedge or flip your position with in-fight/live markets as the odds move with momentum swings.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are real-money trading platforms where users buy and sell contracts on the probability of real-world outcomes. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that give you fixed odds at the time of your bet, prediction markets are dynamic, prices shift continuously based on trader activity, just like a stock on Wall Street.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, making it one of the only federally regulated platforms in the space . Users purchase event contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢, where each contract pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in your favor. If a fighter is priced at 80¢ on Kalshi, the market gives them an 80% chance of winning. Because it’s CFTC-regulated, Kalshi is legally available in all 50 states, including California and Texas where traditional sports betting remains illegal.
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market by trading volume and is now the Official Prediction Market of the UFC following a multi-year sponsorship deal signed in late 2025. Polymarket operates on a similar yes/no contract model, every share is priced between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the crowdsourced probability of that outcome.
The UFC has integrated Polymarket’s odds directly into live broadcasts via a “Fan Prediction Scoreboard,” allowing traders to buy and sell positions during fights as momentum swings in real time.
