The Survivor 50 finale airs Wednesday evening, and we’ve already covered the Survivor winner odds of each remaining player at Kalshi. But there’s another market in the mix with prices worth considering, as compared to the landslide odds in the winner market.
The market in question is Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count, which has you predict how many jury votes the final winner will have received once it’s all said and done.
Setting the stage: Survivor finale
The Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count market’s current frontrunner is “Above 7.” At the time of writing, it’s at about 84%. “Above 8” is around 49%, with over $30K in volume in the overall market.
The elephant in this particular room, though, is the size of the Survivor 50 jury. It’s a big season and a big cast, so the jury will be fittingly large at 11 players (barring any last-minute twists). Six votes will do it straight-up. If it’s a final three, smaller vote splits can muck up the numbers a bit. For example, the winner could have five votes to their competitors’ four and two.
The high likelihood of Above 7 and Above 8 at a coinflip tell us the predicting public thinks this will be a fairly decisive vote. And if the current odds are to be believed and Aubry takes the season, I see how that could happen.
Here’s a retrospective of all previous Survivor seasons and their jury voting outcomes.
Past Survivor final tribal council votes
| Season (year) | Winner | Finalists with vote totals | Cast type |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 – Borneo (2000) | Richard Hatch | Kelly Wiglesworth (4–3) | New |
| S2 – The Australian Outback (2001) | Tina Wesson | Colby Donaldson (4–3) | New |
| S3 – Africa (2001–02) | Ethan Zohn | Kim Johnson (5–2) | New |
| S4 – Marquesas (2002) | Vecepia Towery | Neleh Dennis (4–3) | New |
| S5 – Thailand (2002) | Brian Heidik | Clay Jordan (4–3) | New |
| S6 – The Amazon (2003) | Jenna Morasca | Matthew von Ertfelda (6–1) | New |
| S7 – Pearl Islands (2003) | Sandra Diaz-Twine | Lillian Morris (6–1) | New |
| S8 – All-Stars (2004) | Amber Brkich | Rob Mariano (4–3) | Returning |
| S9 – Vanuatu (2004) | Chris Daugherty | Twila Tanner (5–2) | New |
| S10 – Palau (2005) | Tom Westman | Katie Gallagher (6–1) | New |
| S11 – Guatemala (2005) | Danni Boatwright | Stephenie LaGrossa (6–1) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S12 – Panama: Exile Island (2006) | Aras Baskauskas | Danielle DiLorenzo (5–2) | New |
| S13 – Cook Islands (2006) | Yul Kwon | Ozzy Lusth & Becky Lee (5–4–0) | New |
| S14 – Fiji (2007) | Earl Cole | Cassandra Franklin & Dreamz Herd (9–0–0) | New |
| S15 – China (2007) | Todd Herzog | Courtney Yates & Amanda Kimmel (4–2–1) | New |
| S16 – Micronesia (Fans vs. Favorites) (2008) | Parvati Shallow | Amanda Kimmel (5–3) | Mixed (10 returning, 10 new) |
| S17 – Gabon (2008) | Bob Crowley | Susie Smith & Sugar Kiper (4–3–0) | New |
| S18 – Tocantins (2009) | J.T. Thomas | Stephen Fishbach (7–0) | New |
| S19 – Samoa (2009) | Natalie White | Russell Hantz & Mick Trimming (7–2–0) | New |
| S20 – Heroes vs. Villains (2010) | Sandra Diaz-Twine | Parvati Shallow & Russell Hantz (6–3–0) | Returning |
| S21 – Nicaragua (2010) | Fabio Birza | Chase Rice & Matthew “Sash” Lenahan (5–4–0) | New |
| S22 – Redemption Island (2011) | Rob Mariano | Phillip Sheppard & Natalie Tenerelli (8–1–0) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S23 – South Pacific (2011) | Sophie Clarke | Coach Wade & Albert Destrade (6–3–0) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S24 – One World (2012) | Kim Spradlin | Sabrina Thompson & Chelsea Meissner (7–2–0) | New |
| S25 – Philippines (2012) | Denise Stapley | Lisa Whelchel & Michael Skupin (6–1–1) | Mixed (3 returning) |
| S26 – Caramoan (Fans vs. Favorites 2) (2013) | John Cochran | Dawn Meehan & Sherri Biethman (8–0–0) | Mixed (10 returning, 10 new) |
| S27 – Blood vs. Water (2013) | Tyson Apostol | Monica Culpepper & Gervase Peterson (7–1–0) | Mixed (10 returning + 10 family) |
| S28 – Cagayan (2014) | Tony Vlachos | Woo Hwang & Kass McQuillen (8–1–0) | New |
| S29 – San Juan del Sur (2014) | Natalie Anderson | Jaclyn Schultz & Missy Payne (5–2–1) | New (pairs of loved ones) |
| S30 – Worlds Apart (2015) | Mike Holloway | Carolyn Rivera & Will Sims II (6–1–1) | New |
| S31 – Cambodia – Second Chance (2015) | Jeremy Collins | Spencer Bledsoe & Tasha Fox (10–0–0) | Returning |
| S32 – Kaôh Rōng (2016) | Michele Fitzgerald | Aubry Bracco & Tai Trang (5–2–0) | New |
| S33 – Millennials vs. Gen X (2016) | Adam Klein | Hannah Shapiro & Ken McNickle (10–0–0) | New |
| S34 – Game Changers (2017) | Sarah Lacina | Brad Culpepper & Troyzan Robertson (7–3–0) | Returning |
| S35 – Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (2017) | Ben Driebergen | Chrissy Hofbeck & Ryan Ulrich (5–2–1) | New |
| S36 – Ghost Island (2018) | Wendell Holland | Domenick Abbate & Laurel Johnson (6–5 – tie broken by Laurel) | New |
| S37 – David vs. Goliath (2018) | Nick Wilson | Angelina Keeley & Mike White (7–3–0) | New |
| S38 – Edge of Extinction (2019) | Chris Underwood | Gavin Whitson & Julie Rosenberg (9–4–0) | Mixed (4 returning) |
| S39 – Island of the Idols (2019) | Tommy Sheehan | Dean Kowalski & Noura Salman (8–2–0) | New (mentors not contestants) |
| S40 – Winners at War (2020) | Tony Vlachos | Natalie Anderson & Michele Fitzgerald (12–4–0) | Returning (all past winners) |
| S41 (2021) | Erika Casupanan | Deshawn Radden & Xander Hastings (7–1–0) | New |
| S42 (2022) | Maryanne Oketch | Mike Turner & Romeo Escobar (7–1–0) | New |
| S43 (2022) | Mike Gabler | Cassidy Clark & Owen Knight (7–1–0) | New |
| S44 (2023) | Yam Yam Arocho | Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt & Carolyn Wiger (7–1–0) | New |
| S45 (2023) | Dee Valladares | Austin Li Coon & Julie Alley (5–3–0) | New |
| S46 (2024) | Kenzie Petty | Charlie Davis & Ben Katzman (5–3–0) | New |
| S47 (2024) | Rachel LaMont | Sam Phalen & Sue Smey (7–1–0) | New |
| S48 (2025) | Kyle Fraser | Eva Erickson & Joe Hunter (5–2–1) | New |
| S49 (2026) | Savannah Louie | Sophi Balerdi & Sage Ahrens-Nichols (5–2–1) | New |
What do these stats tell us? Historically, landslide unanimous votes are rare, having occurred in only five previous seasons. The most recent was 17 seasons ago. That doesn’t mean 50 won’t have a unanimous winner, but the sheer number of jurors and different perspectives on gameplay will make that particularly difficult.
My prediction for vote count in final tribal council
After a scan of the jury and a little time to stew on it, I cautiously favor the “Above 8” market. Should the existing Kalshi markets prove correct, then I see Aubry snatching the vast majority of votes, with Jonathan, should he make it, earning a few from players like Ozzy or Coach. I’m leaving Joe completely out of the picture here because, while he seems like a nice gent, ill-defined claims of “honor” aren’t always vote-worthy.
If Rizo or Tiff defy the odds and make it to Final Tribal, that picture becomes a lot different, and I would call it a much closer race.
We’ll see what happens on Wednesday!
