Canada opens its World Cup campaign against Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field in Toronto this afternoon, with prediction markets giving the hosts a 54% chance of victory. Captain Alphonso Davies misses the match with a hamstring injury, a major blow to the CanMNT’s counterattack.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m today, following an opening ceremony featuring Michael Bublé and Alanis Morissette.
Davies absence reshapes Canada’s attack
Davies is crucial to Canada’s counterattacking game, as he’s exceptionally quick and powerful when bombing down the left flank. In his absence, Tajon Buchanan offers pace and unpredictability on the right, making Canada a formidable prospect on the break. Davies picked up the hamstring injury in Bayern Munich’s Champions League semifinal against PSG.
All Canada odds for this matchup from Kalshi and Polymarket: Canada vs. Bosnia live odds
Richie Laryea and Liam Millar could now team up on the left for Canada. Millar isn’t as technically gifted as Davies, but he’s another quick, highly energetic, and hardworking player, so the CanMNT will still boast a lot of pace in transition.
The team will need to get the ball to star striker Jonathan David as often as possible. He has scored 39 goals in 77 games for Canada, so he will be its primary goal threat at the World Cup, with Cyle Larin playing a supporting role.
David, the Juventus forward, has always been reliable for Canada. He’ll be facing a Bosnia and Herzegovina team that has kept just one clean sheet in its last nine games.
Polymarket gives David a 36% chance of scoring in this game. Kalshi has 33% on him finding the back of the net, which looks tempting.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s eight-game unbeaten streak
Bosnia and Herzegovina finished second in its World Cup qualifying group. The Dragons came close to winning the group, but a narrow 2-1 defeat to Austria in September 2025 scuppered their chances. They ultimately finished two points below Austria.
However, they earned a place in the playoffs, and they battled to a 1-1 draw against Wales in the semifinals before winning the subsequent penalty shootout. Bosnia and Herzegovina was a heavy underdog against Italy in the playoff final, and it trailed 1-0 following Moise Kean’s goal.
Alessandro Bastoni was then sent off for Italy, so Bosnia and Herzegovina grew into the game, and Haris Tabaković equalized with 11 minutes left on the clock. Once again, it went to penalties, and the Bosnians held their nerve, winning 4-1.
Their reward is a place at the World Cup for the first time since 2014. Star striker Edin Džeko inspired them to a 3-1 win against Iran in their match at that tournament, but they crashed out after losing to Nigeria and Argentina.
Džeko is now 40 years old, but he’s still going strong, and he assisted Tabaković’s crucial goal against Italy in the playoffs. He has scored 73 goals in 148 games for his country, and the former Man City, Inter Milan, and Roma striker could make life difficult for Canada’s defenders in this game.
Ermedin Demirović, Amar Dedić, and Esmir Bajraktarević form a strong supporting cast, so Bosnia could cause problems for Canada’s full-backs.
Both teams to score is trading at 46% on Polymarket. That looks interesting, as it has landed in eight of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last nine games. The only exception was a 0-0 friendly draw against North Macedonia.
The Dragons are now on an eight-game unbeaten streak, but the defense isn’t exactly watertight, so this could be an entertaining game.
Prediction markets expect a low-scoring game
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 58% with Polymarket and Kalshi. That has landed in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last five games, and it has also landed in nine of Canada’s last 10 matches, so it’s easy to see why traders expect a low-scoring match.
The exact score markets suggest that a 1-0 win for Canada is the most likely outcome, but a 1-1 draw is priced at 14% with Polymarket.
Beyond the match-winner and total-goals markets, Kalshi lists event contracts on goalscorers, assists, corners, and more.
The site is also offering mention markets, which let you predict what the announcers will say. “BMO Field,” the venue for this game, is priced at 30%, while “Trump” is trading at 7% and “what a save” is priced at 28%.
Polymarket and DraftKings Predictions are offering even more props, so you can speculate on shots, shots on target, saves, cards, and much more.
