Kalshi has made another move that is in keeping with the old adage that “it’s easier to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission.” The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Tuesday that Kalshi had self-certified perpetual contracts based on prices for gold and silver.
Similar perps at Kalshi are already the subject of a lawsuit that The CME Group initiated, challenging the commission’s authority to regulate commodity-based futures. Kalshi’s decision to certify the contracts may stand in opposition to the court’s decision in that case or may represent some of the first applications of a new understanding of perps.
Kalshi files paperwork to certify gold and silver perpetual contracts
As Kalshi’s gold perpetual contract and silver perpetual contract filings with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) denote, these markets mark the most popular form of price discovery for the associated commodities on a global basis. Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures in that they have no fixed expiration date, but are otherwise similar in that they contain cash settlements.
These contracts will trade on Kalshi around the clock every day of the week and will be “anchored to the underlying reference market.” For these perps, traders will buy and sell positions based on price targets, then contracts will settle on the difference between that price target and the actual Reference Price at the time of the transactions.
Essentially, traders holding the premium side of these perpetual contracts will pay the traders holding the discounted side of the contracts. That brings in the perpetual element, as Kalshi users will be able to hold their positions in perpetuity.
As Bitget Wallet CCO Alvin Kan told DeFiRate, these perps “are also a way to bring a large offshore crypto trading model into regulated US markets and compete for a younger, more active trader base.” That is assuming that the current regulatory structure enabling the contracts doesn’t see any adjustments.
CME Group complaint might stymie proliferation of precious metals perps
The CME Group has been engaged in a lawsuit against the CFTC since June over whether perps based on cryptocurrencies should be treated as futures or swaps. Precious metals perps have some aspects of both products.
The recurring payments that traders make to keep the contracts connected to the Reference Market is the strongest example of how these perps resemble swaps. They feature a single payment at settlement, though, which is a classic facet of futures.
The CME Group’s lawsuit brings this distinction before a court by challenging the CFTC’s approval of perps tethered to Bitcoin prices as futures rather than swaps. The complaint argues that the CFTC’s decision violates federal law by reversing its policy without providing adequate explanation for the change.
Should the court side with the CFTC, gold and silver perps may be just the beginning of Kalshi’s perpetual offerings. A ruling friendly to The CME Group might compel Kalshi to attempt to “put the toothpaste back into the tube” to an extent, though.
Did Kalshi “jump the gun” with gold and silver perps certification?
Kalshi has acted properly under the current interpretations of federal regulations and statutes. The CFTC’s approval of Bitcoin perps provided further confidence for Kalshi to move on gold and silver.
If the CFTC has concerns, it can use its regulatory authority to intervene. Kalshi’s certification of any contracts is always subject to the CFTC’s intervention if the CFTC feels that contracts work against the public interest or are too vulnerable to potential manipulation.
A court ruling that perps should be regulated as swaps would force Kalshi to make some adjustments, but the basic concept of futures connected to precious metal prices with no finite expiration may survive in some form. The real question in that instance becomes whether a version of gold and silver perps adjusted to fit swaps rules would appeal to traders.
Interested parties could alternatively continue to use the forums they currently trade on that are based outside of the US. While Kalshi has set its efforts to divert those transactions onto its exchange in motion, courts’ interpretations of governing statutes could still thwart those efforts.
Robinhood expands NHL markets
Robinhood also added to the number of markets it is offering for the 2026-27 National Hockey League season on Monday. Those newly self-certified contracts are “Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 NHL MVP?” and “Will the Colorado Avalance advance to the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?”
Robinhood also self-certified generic market frameworks for future seasons involving all athletes and teams. Barring CFTC reversals, those markets covering whether listed players will win the Hart Memorial Trophy and whether listed teams will qualify for postseasons will be available on Robinhood for each NHL season.
