The NFL’s first full regular-season slate added at least $961.29 million in tracked prediction market volume in one week.
Tracked NFL volume reached at least $1.034 billion from Sept. 7-13, up from $72.71 million in DeFi Rate’s previous weekly volume report. Kalshi carried the surge with $983.18 million, including $537.48 million in direct NFL contracts and $445.70 million in pure-NFL combos.
The increase extended well beyond the standalone windows. Although 49ers-Rams and Patriots-Seahawks led the rankings, the other 14 games generated another $315.23 million across the tracked venues. Kalshi and Polymarket Global recorded nearly 4 million trades across the full board, averaging 131 contracts per transaction.
The opening-week breadth offered the first regular-season test of DeFi Rate’s projection that NFL prediction-market volume could reach $57 billion this season. NFL contracts represented 30.1% of Kalshi’s weekly sports volume, compared with 4.0% at Polymarket Global. The combined NFL total remains a lower bound because Polymarket US had not posted its Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 daily reports when DeFi Rate collected the data.
NFL volume accelerated across all three tracked venues
Polymarket Global reported $27.62 million in weekly NFL contract volume, up 4,399% from $614,028.58. Polymarket US had already reached $23.20 million on five reporting days, 1,760% above the prior full week’s $1.25 million.
| Venue | Aug. 31-Sept. 6 | Sept. 7-13 | Increase | WoW | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $70.85M | $983.18M | $912.33M | 1,288% | Complete |
| Polymarket Global | $614.03K | $27.62M | $27.01M | 4,399% | Complete |
| Polymarket US | $1.25M | $23.20M | $21.95M | 1,760% | Partial: five daily reports |
| Tracked total | $72.71M | At least $1.034B | At least $961.29M | At least 1,322% | Partial due to Polymarket US |
The result extends the surge first visible in Patriots-Seahawks trading. That opener produced two of the week’s largest individual contracts on Kalshi, followed by the 49ers-Rams moneyline markets.
Pure-NFL combos lifted Kalshi volume to $983 million
Week 1 game markets and game-specific props generated $495.92 million on Kalshi, up from $3.56 million in the prior week. That category represented 92.3% of direct NFL volume, while other direct NFL contracts contributed $41.55 million.
Pure-NFL combo contracts added another $445.70 million, up from $52.25 million. Together, direct NFL contracts and pure-NFL combos produced $983.18 million—an increase of $912.33 million, or 1,288%, week over week.
| Kalshi NFL segment | Aug. 31-Sept. 6 | Sept. 7-13 | WoW | Current share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 games and game props | $3.56M | $495.92M | 13,817% | 50.4% |
| Other direct NFL contracts | $15.03M | $41.55M | 176% | 4.2% |
| Direct NFL subtotal | $18.60M | $537.48M | 2,790% | 54.7% |
| Pure-NFL combo contracts | $52.25M | $445.70M | 753% | 45.3% |
| Total NFL | $70.85M | $983.18M | 1,288% | 100% |
Back-to-back $100 million games set the pace
The Week 1 surge began with Patriots-Seahawks, which generated at least $111.49 million across the tracked venues and put $103.69 million through Kalshi. The next night showed that opening-game demand was not an isolated spike. 49ers-Rams moved ahead with at least $117.69 million overall, including $95.63 million on Kalshi.
Trading then spread across the rest of the schedule instead of fading after the two prime-time games. Kalshi and Polymarket Global recorded 3,989,521 trades and $522.79 million in contract volume across the full 16-game board, with an average of 131.0 contracts per transaction.
Week 1 Volume and Transaction Growth
| Time (ET) | Kalshi Volume | Kalshi Transactions |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 8 PM | 113.8K | 2.1K |
| Sep 8 9 PM | 127.0K | 2.0K |
| Sep 8 10 PM | 289.5K | 2.0K |
| Sep 8 11 PM | 213.1K | 2.1K |
| Sep 9 12 AM | 437.3K | 2.2K |
| Sep 9 1 AM | 180.6K | 1.8K |
| Sep 9 2 AM | 88.2K | 1.2K |
| Sep 9 3 AM | 376.3K | 1.3K |
| Sep 9 4 AM | 72.9K | 883 |
| Sep 9 5 AM | 52.5K | 803 |
| Sep 9 6 AM | 85.1K | 1.0K |
| Sep 9 7 AM | 181.0K | 2.1K |
| Sep 9 8 AM | 253.8K | 2.8K |
| Sep 9 9 AM | 334.7K | 4.3K |
| Sep 9 10 AM | 525.4K | 5.7K |
| Sep 9 11 AM | 1.0M | 6.5K |
| Sep 9 12 PM | 705.6K | 8.0K |
| Sep 9 1 PM | 1.2M | 7.9K |
| Sep 9 2 PM | 811.8K | 8.5K |
| Sep 9 3 PM | 970.0K | 10.0K |
| Sep 9 4 PM | 1.3M | 12.7K |
| Sep 9 5 PM | 2.1M | 18.8K |
| Sep 9 6 PM | 3.4M | 27.6K |
| Sep 9 7 PM | 7.1M | 49.9K |
NFL made up 30.1% of Kalshi sports volume
Kalshi generated $3.26 billion in sports contract volume during the week and $12.98 billion across all markets in DeFi Rate’s prediction-market volume tracker. Direct NFL contracts plus pure-NFL combos represented 30.1% of Kalshi sports volume and 7.6% of its total market volume.
Polymarket Global recorded $695.21 million in sports volume and $1.12 billion across all markets. Its $27.62 million in NFL trading represented 4.0% of sports volume and 2.5% of total volume.
| Venue | NFL volume | Sports volume | NFL share of sports | Total volume | NFL share of total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $983.18M | $3.26B | 30.1% | $12.98B | 7.6% |
| Polymarket Global | $27.62M | $695.21M | 4.0% | $1.12B | 2.5% |
Kalshi’s total includes only combo contracts whose structure was complete and whose resolved legs were all NFL-related. Mixed-category combos, unresolved combos, Netflix ticker false positives, college football, CFL and Olympic flag-football markets were excluded; direct legs and combo contracts were counted once each as separate provider markets.
NFL volume across all matchups
The table recreates the full-team ranking used in the earlier game-volume article. It includes every Week 1 matchup and ranks the games by tracked weekly contract volume across the three venues.
| # | Game | Date | Kalshi | Poly Global | Poly US* | Total* | Trades** | Avg. size** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers-Rams | Sept. 10 | $95.63M | $5.33M | $16.73M | $117.69M | 751,822 | 134.3 |
| 2 | Patriots-Seahawks | Sept. 9 | $103.69M | $4.87M | $2.93M | $111.49M | 797,141 | 136.2 |
| 3 | Packers-Vikings | Sept. 13 | $39.28M | $2.25M | $130.98K | $41.66M | 349,907 | 118.7 |
| 4 | Commanders-Eagles | Sept. 13 | $39.31M | $1.84M | $80.15K | $41.23M | 230,854 | 178.3 |
| 5 | Bills-Texans | Sept. 13 | $33.82M | $2.32M | $155.08K | $36.30M | 318,989 | 113.3 |
| 6 | Cardinals-Chargers | Sept. 13 | $33.50M | $1.07M | $87.92K | $34.66M | 241,944 | 142.9 |
| 7 | Saints-Lions | Sept. 13 | $29.18M | $1.35M | $144.00K | $30.68M | 204,137 | 149.6 |
| 8 | Cowboys-Giants | Sept. 13 | $22.47M | $1.37M | $385.64K | $24.23M | 173,490 | 137.4 |
| 9 | Falcons-Steelers | Sept. 13 | $17.13M | $1.38M | $112.54K | $18.63M | 166,641 | 111.1 |
| 10 | Dolphins-Raiders | Sept. 13 | $15.86M | $1.28M | $69.95K | $17.21M | 151,521 | 113.1 |
| 11 | Bears-Panthers | Sept. 13 | $15.09M | $793.00K | $158.55K | $16.04M | 171,366 | 92.7 |
| 12 | Buccaneers-Bengals | Sept. 13 | $15.06M | $625.49K | $87.00K | $15.77M | 110,428 | 142.0 |
| 13 | Ravens-Colts | Sept. 13 | $13.57M | $1.55M | $175.03K | $15.30M | 133,308 | 113.4 |
| 14 | Browns-Jaguars | Sept. 13 | $12.64M | $317.92K | $145.71K | $13.10M | 87,321 | 148.4 |
| 15 | Jets-Titans | Sept. 13 | $8.27M | $462.90K | $136.55K | $8.87M | 74,548 | 117.1 |
| 16 | Broncos-Chiefs | Sept. 14 | $1.43M | $35.11K | $100.14K | $1.56M | 26,104 | 56.1 |
* Polymarket US and combined game totals are partial because the Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 Daily Market Reports remained unavailable. ** Trade count and average size use Kalshi and Polymarket Global only because the Polymarket US Daily Market Report does not publish transaction counts. Average size is contract volume divided by trade count and is shown in contracts per trade.
Methodology: DeFi Rate’s analysis uses deduplicated hourly contract-volume and trade-count data for the Monday-Sunday UTC windows of Aug. 31-Sept. 6 and Sept. 7-13. For each provider market and hour, the latest value by computation time was selected before summing; the Sept. 7-13 window ended at 12:00 a.m. UTC on Sept. 14. Kalshi’s direct NFL total covers current catalog markets attributable only to the NFL. Its combo total covers complete combo structures only when every resolved leg was NFL-related. Sports and platform totals use DeFi Rate’s category and provider aggregates for the same window. Polymarket US uses official Daily Market Report Trade Volume; Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 reports were unavailable at collection time. Volume measures contracts traded during each window, not ending cumulative volume or dollar notional.
