Latest News
Ninth Circuit Deals Kalshi Major Blow, Rules Sports Event Contracts Aren’t CFTC-Regulated Swaps
The Ninth Circuit has dealt Kalshi one of its biggest legal losses yet, ruling that the platform’s sports-event contracts are sports bets—not swaps protected by the Commodity Exchange Act. The decision lets Nevada enforce its gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports products, deepens a circuit split with the Third Circuit, and raises the stakes for prediction-market operators facing state regulators around the country.
CFTC
Connecticut Attorney General Escalates Action Against Kalshi Amid CFTC Lawsuit
Connecticut AG joins fray of colleagues taking to state courts to seek order limiting residents’ access to prediction market exchanges.
Regulation and Policy
Polymarket US Files AI Compute Contracts as CFTC Seeks Standards for Emerging ‘Digital Oil’ Market
The CFTC is seeking public comment on how AI compute derivatives should be listed and overseen, including questions around liquidity, benchmark reliability, manipulation and customer protections, as Kalshi, CME, ICE, Polymarket US and Liquid Compute race to build markets around future computing costs
Regulation and Policy
CFTC Readies Prediction Market Rules as Innovation Advisory Committee Weighs Market Limits, Consumer Safeguards
At Thursday’s inaugural IAC meeting, prediction market and derivatives executives broadly backed federal oversight and stronger consumer safeguards while clashing over self-certification, manipulation risks and which event contracts should be allowed
Weekly Volume Report
BMW Championship, US Open Drove Huge Week For Sports On Prediction Markets Volume
Prediction markets surged to $3.36B in weekly volume, with sports dominating 76.5% of trading across Kalshi and Polymarket Global.
Political Reports
- AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
- Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
- Trump Doubles Down on Mazzei in Oklahoma Governor Runoff After Prediction Markets Missed First Round
- Cook Moves Texas and Iowa Toward Democrats, but Prediction Markets Still See Different November Risks
- Prediction Markets Nail Alaska Primary, Get a Florida Surprise as November Map Starts to Take Shape
- Prediction Markets See Alaska Senate as a Coin Flip as Peltola Targets Crucial Democratic Pickup
Legal News & Updates
Kalshi Ordered to Halt Most Washington Event Contracts Under Sweeping Injunction
Promo News
NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions: Updated Daily
Kalshi moved the Bills from +1.5 to -1.5 against the Texans overnight, a three-point swing, while Buffalo climbed to 51.5% against Houston during the Aug. 30 morning check at 6:07 a.m. ET. The Patriots vs. Seahawks remained the most actively traded Week 1 matchup, with Kalshi game composite volume reaching $438,959 after adding $34,915 over the past 24 hours.
Promo News
Scott Jennings Leads Next Trump Press Secretary Prediction Markets as White House Considers Candidates
CNN contributor Scott Jennings leads the market to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, trading at 32% on Kalshi with $1.3 million in volume. President Trump has reportedly told advisers he would prefer a man for the role after four consecutive female press secretaries across his two terms.
Promo News
UFC 330 Odds: Makhachev vs. Machado Picks and Predictions, Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Islam Makhachev headlines UFC 330 as a heavy favorite over Ian Machado Garry, while Dern-Robertson, Abdul-Malik, and Barboza-Ribovics help round out a stacked card.