Sen. Darline Graham Nordone is still the clear favorite to win South Carolina’s special Republican Senate primary on prediction markets, even after two debates that raised as many questions about the GOP’s future as they did about her own candidacy.
Five candidates took to the debate stage Monday, including Graham Nordone, while those vying to unseat her went at it again Tuesday. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham Nordone to the seat following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
The candidates spent much of Monday and Tuesday praising the late Graham while also explaining how they’d focus more on domestic issues. On Tuesday, they jabbed at his appointed successor for skipping the stage.
There are 10 candidates running heading into the August 11 primary. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff will be held August 25 between the top two candidates.
Regardless, prediction markets are still pricing Graham Nordone as the likely nominee and November winner in a race that’s more about intra-party fissures than Senate control.
A crowded primary with a quiet frontrunner
Only four of the candidates are consistently polling in double digits:
- Graham Nordone
- Rep. Ralph Norman
- Rep. Russell Fry
- Former Gov. Mark Sanford
Graham leads in two of the recent polls, with Norman ahead in one Emerson College poll and Fry and Sanford within striking distance in head-to-head matchups.
On Kalshi, Graham is trading at 63% on about $4 million in volume, with Norman at 22% and Fry in the mid-teens.
Polymarket shows similar pricing, with Graham at 61% on around $400,000 in volume. That’s a strong but not runaway position in a race that will go to a runoff if no one clears 50%.
The debates reflected that uncertainty. Candidates showered the late Graham with praise while airing discomfort with his sister’s absence and Trump’s influence, even as they acknowledged that the interim senator, who carries Trump’s endorsement, remains the odds-on favorite.
For traders, the field is noisy, but the structure still favors Graham.
Little impact on Senate control
For all the drama, this race is essentially inconsequential to the national battle for Senate control. South Carolina is a solid Republican state, and whichever GOP candidate emerges from the primary is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.
Prediction markets treat the general as a near lock for the GOP, making this contest more about who represents the party than whether the seat flips.
Trump’s endorsement history in South Carolina reinforces that point. His backing didn’t deliver the governorship for Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who finished first in the initial primary but lost the runoff after Trump hedged and endorsed both her and Attorney General Alan Wilson.
That episode hangs over Graham Nordone’s race as a reminder that even in deep-red states, Trump’s support doesn’t settle everything; it just adds another variable.
South Carolina’s special election is worth watching as a window into GOP internal battles and how much Trump still moves markets and votes, not as a seat that will decide who controls the Senate.
