UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi lands at Etihad Arena on July 25 with a light heavyweight bout for the main event, with former champion Magomed Ankalaev returning to the Octagon to take on late-notice replacement Bogdan Guskov.
The main card gets underway at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with early prelims kicking off the action at 9 a.m. ET.
Kalshi and Polymarket traders are lining up almost identically across six main-card bouts, with only one true 50-50 coin flip on the entire slate.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown through the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the two platforms redefining how fans engage with MMA outcomes.
UFC Fight Night card preview: Kalshi vs. Polymarket markets
Main Event — Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov
Magomed Ankalaev is a heavy favorite in the light heavyweight headliner, with Kalshi pricing him at 82¢ and Polymarket at 81¢, reflecting his size, control, and championship-level grappling advantage over a late-notice replacement in Guskov, who stepped in for Khalil Rountree Jr. Guskov sits at 19-20¢ across both books, keeping him alive as a live underdog purely on the strength of his knockout power, but the market clearly believes Ankalaev’s volume and control will be too much across five rounds.
Co-Main — Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov
The flyweight co-main is the tightest market on the entire card, with Ramazan Temirov just a little bit ahead at 52-53¢ on both sides over Steve Erceg at 48-49¢. The close-to-even price indicates traders are genuinely divided on whether Temirov’s fight-ending power or Erceg’s experience, movement, and volume will win out over three rounds.
With barely a cent separating Polymarket and Kalshi, this reads as the one true toss-up on the main card and a fight where live-line movement during the walkout could tell you more than the pre-fight number.
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman
Islam Dulatov is a decisive favorite here, priced at 87-88¢ on both platforms against Wellington Turman, who trails at just 13¢ across the board. That kind of lopsided pricing typically points to a clear stylistic mismatch, and Dulatov’s rising unbeaten record has traders treating this as close to a formality rather than a genuine pick’em.
Turman’s veteran experience and durability give him a puncher’s chance, but the market is essentially pricing this as a mismatch on paper.
Damian Rzepecki vs. Magomed Zaynukov
Magomed Zaynukov is the clear favorite in this lightweight bout, sitting at 73-74¢ on both platforms, while Damian Rzepecki trails at 27-28¢. The gap suggests traders like Zaynukov’s physical tools and finishing instincts against a Rzepecki who will need to rely on volume, durability, and grappling to drag the fight into deep water.
With both platforms in near-total agreement, there’s little room for a contrarian angle here beyond a live-underdog play on Rzepecki if he can change the pace early.
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune
Rizvan Kuniev is the favorite at 75¢ on both sites in this heavyweight clash vs Tyrell Fortune at 26-27¢. Heavyweight fights are known for their volatility due to one-punch knockout power, but the 75¢ line at both books suggests that traders like Kuniev’s overall skill and finishing ability but give Fortune the benefit of the doubt for his power.
Considering the huge discrepancy, Fortune’s price is live value for anyone trading a single clean shot that will change the fight.
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
Abubakar Vagaev opens the main card as a solid favorite, priced at 68-71¢ across the two platforms against Saygid Izagakhmaev, who sits at 30-32¢. Vagaev’s effective double-leg takedown and grappling control appear to be driving the market’s confidence.
The wider Kalshi-Polymarket spread here, compared to the near-identical numbers on other bouts, suggests real uncertainty about whether Izagakhmaev’s striking can offset Vagaev’s grappling pressure.
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
The preliminary card is headlined by heavyweight grappler Valter Walker, who’s chasing his fifth consecutive heel-hook finish and represents one of the most must-watch submission threats on the entire card against Thomas Petersen. Right behind it, UFC veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio squares off with Sam Patterson in a welterweight bout that pairs a well-traveled striker against a rising prospect looking to make a statement, while Ismael Bonfim takes on Axel Sola in a lightweight clash worth tracking for live-line movement given Bonfim’s finishing instincts.
Further down the card, light heavyweight action continues with Dustin Jacoby facing Muhammad Said, a matchup between a durable veteran and a hungry newcomer trying to break into the rankings. The bantamweight pairing of Abdul Hussein and Cody Gibson also deserves attention, as does the lightweight bout between Nurullo Aliev, unbeaten at 11-0, and the more experienced Mike Davis, a fight with real finishing upside on both sides given Aliev’s perfect record and Davis’s veteran toughness.
