Kalshi’s 2026 FIFA World Cup markets generated at least $13.76 billion in trading volume, making the tournament the biggest event in the exchange’s history.
DeFi Rate’s review of Kalshi API data identified 119 World Cup market series and 35,987 individual contract listings. The total does not include Kalshi’s combo markets, so the full amount of World Cup-related trading was higher. Kalshi told CoinDesk on July 14, five days before the final, that its World Cup-specific volume had already reached $22.42 billion, a figure that likely included combo volume.
It also blew past DeFi Rate’s own pre-tournament forecast. A June 1 analysis projected $1.47 billion in Kalshi World Cup volume, including about $1.19 billion from individual matches. Actual tracked volume was more than nine times the forecast.
The tournament brought Kalshi more than volume. The company told CNBC that it added 3 million users during the World Cup. Kalshi also mounted a major marketing push around the tournament. Its knockout-stage partnership with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction-market partner, put its branding in the stadiums and on pitchside boards visible throughout game broadcasts.
Kalshi World Cup numbers by volume, open interest and markets
| Market Family | Displayed Volume ($) | Open Interest ($) | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup Game | $4,494,733,493.99 | $2,716,739,444.20 | 312 |
| World Cup Advance | $2,502,023,083.59 | $1,537,221,954.43 | 62 |
| Men’s World Cup winner | $1,540,161,824.07 | $1,037,372,846.08 | 66 |
| World Cup Correct Score | $1,019,572,938.80 | $764,548,244.00 | 2,692 |
| World Cup Total | $763,654,908.55 | $412,076,272.51 | 690 |
| World Cup Spread | $627,751,262.25 | $348,230,905.97 | 509 |
| World Cup Goal | $593,726,144.62 | $474,460,183.63 | 4,318 |
| World Cup BTTS | $226,619,837.57 | $133,920,435.97 | 104 |
| World Cup Team Total | $205,424,189.20 | $118,609,458.52 | 826 |
| World Cup 1st Half | $204,302,528.46 | $123,259,968.93 | 312 |
| World Cup Method of Victory | $160,007,574.44 | $113,632,820.27 | 192 |
| World Cup 1st Half Total | $154,989,900.58 | $88,300,492.86 | 416 |
| World Cup Mentions | $149,782,186.56 | $113,776,354.78 | 3,074 |
| World Cup 1st Half Score | $141,192,591.87 | $109,959,137.62 | 1,074 |
| World Cup Corners | $115,823,900.98 | $57,964,665.89 | 520 |
| World Cup 2nd Half Winner | $111,313,139.17 | $67,564,126.96 | 264 |
| World Cup Team Corners | $88,503,579.49 | $51,043,854.11 | 618 |
| World Cup First Half Spread | $75,668,403.02 | $45,365,172.39 | 209 |
| World Cup Team To Score First | $58,770,261.03 | $44,662,549.12 | 312 |
| World Cup Score or Assist | $54,410,092.54 | $43,667,510.50 | 2,144 |
| World Cup 1st Half BTTS | $49,193,457.29 | $31,645,459.43 | 104 |
| World Cup Goal Leader | $43,036,524.28 | $32,645,730.78 | 54 |
| World Cup 2nd Half Total | $41,200,069.48 | $23,015,922.98 | 352 |
| World Cup Reach Round | $33,895,630.99 | $19,751,374.68 | 256 |
| World Cup First Goal | $31,603,167.57 | $29,019,838.80 | 2,354 |
| World Cup Assists | $27,066,532.41 | $23,577,360.66 | 2,769 |
| World Cup 2nd Half BTTS | $25,396,066.19 | $15,286,683.25 | 88 |
| World Cup Second Half Spread | $23,320,403.04 | $13,355,771.76 | 176 |
| World Cup Award | $16,608,916.36 | $11,265,549.33 | 337 |
| World Cup Stage of Elimination | $16,367,129.55 | $11,069,922.95 | 336 |
| World Cup Matchup | $16,211,379.89 | $12,089,837.14 | 360 |
| World Cup Method of Finish | $15,545,152.18 | $8,985,537.17 | 96 |
| World Cup Group Winner | $14,851,190.85 | $8,540,855.70 | 64 |
| World Cup Finishing Order | $13,973,060.90 | $8,691,939.65 | 16 |
| Goals Messi and Mbappe | $11,555,230.81 | $8,217,127.52 | 3 |
| World Cup Starters | $8,537,494.11 | $6,137,404.98 | 1,083 |
| World Cup Continent | $7,629,209.45 | $4,608,461.75 | 5 |
| World Cup Group Qualifiers | $7,034,203.78 | $3,969,542.79 | 64 |
| Who will perform at event | $6,411,064.90 | $3,517,745.84 | 134 |
| World Cup 3rd Place Finisher | $5,296,724.36 | $2,925,366.70 | 48 |
| World Cup Advertisements | $4,694,771.14 | $2,475,288.18 | 39 |
| Furthest Advancing Country from World Cup Region | $4,286,042.82 | $2,840,119.82 | 42 |
| World Cup Total Goals | $4,028,727.48 | $2,293,550.08 | 107 |
| World Cup Prepack | $3,999,277.42 | $3,388,246.31 | 6 |
| who will attend world cup | $3,676,643.83 | $1,893,121.48 | 26 |
| what will be the first song sung at the world cup halftime | $3,581,776.98 | $2,532,556.41 | 94 |
| World Cup Goal Count | $3,372,886.58 | $2,500,477.63 | 92 |
| World Cup Team First Goal | $2,637,226.80 | $2,435,731.61 | 2,685 |
| World Cup Team Top Scorer | $1,879,278.19 | $1,621,093.98 | 1,153 |
| World Cup Group to Win | $1,866,294.52 | $1,297,421.44 | 12 |
| World Cup Team Head to Head | $1,747,126.79 | $1,323,329.71 | 33 |
| World Cup Group Stage Goals | $1,677,020.84 | $1,229,436.99 | 192 |
| World Cup Ticket Prices | $1,617,485.05 | $870,415.44 | 69 |
| World Cup Group Exact Order | $1,591,443.86 | $1,050,242.44 | 384 |
| World Cup Furthest Stage Advanced | $1,580,828.13 | $968,513.21 | 35 |
| World Cup Group Winners to be Eliminated in Round of 32 | $1,253,254.47 | $1,174,671.51 | 12 |
| World Cup Squad | $1,046,426.81 | $552,349.85 | 306 |
| Correct Score after Extra Time | $970,894.16 | $749,555.83 | 13 |
| World Cup Tournament Goals | $961,120.89 | $651,876.84 | 245 |
| World Cup Delay | $921,770.06 | $729,321.40 | 21 |
| Group Bottom Finisher | $871,825.51 | $574,617.04 | 48 |
| World Cup FIFA Top 10 | $849,638.36 | $483,271.17 | 3 |
| World Cup First Time Winner | $787,597.82 | $377,416.99 | 1 |
| World Cup Group Stage Undefeated | $758,805.53 | $606,461.67 | 48 |
| Goalie Goal in World Cup | $735,080.66 | $524,670.91 | 1 |
| World Cup Best Performing Host Nation | $662,828.00 | $366,748.93 | 3 |
| World Cup Team Goals | $627,342.59 | $528,632.00 | 111 |
| World Cup Any Country not in Europe or South America to Win | $622,260.86 | $419,583.45 | 1 |
| what song will be performed at event | $616,944.50 | $413,761.69 | 52 |
| Goal Contributions Messi and Ronaldo | $450,064.69 | $282,383.84 | 3 |
| World Cup Matches to go to Penalties | $441,864.98 | $388,017.66 | 22 |
| World Soccer Cup Golden Boot Total Goals | $432,632.76 | $285,929.41 | 10 |
| World Cup Player Goals | $406,344.73 | $344,229.01 | 1,081 |
| World Cup Goal in Every Game | $377,251.84 | $212,914.36 | 2 |
| World Cup Record Breaking | $366,846.40 | $227,993.57 | 1 |
| World Cup Awards | $347,038.77 | $226,170.75 | 2 |
| World Cup Hat Trick | $329,464.10 | $203,067.68 | 5 |
| World Cup Highest Scoring Game | $287,455.97 | $223,554.48 | 17 |
| Group Stage Goals | $248,609.60 | $165,968.86 | 24 |
| Iran World Cup | $246,375.64 | $81,449.15 | 1 |
| Goalie Penalty Goal in World Cup | $243,722.83 | $152,436.09 | 1 |
| Golden Boot Cleats | $235,417.12 | $167,351.53 | 4 |
| World Cup Teams in Game | $227,847.08 | $162,657.41 | 6 |
| World Cup USA Opponent | $207,242.12 | $136,099.74 | 21 |
| World Cup Winner to Trail in a Match | $194,620.77 | $93,353.37 | 1 |
| World Cup Any Player to Score a Brace | $131,710.58 | $88,082.93 | 1 |
| will taylor swift attend a world cup game | $130,774.40 | $58,681.16 | 1 |
| World Cup Play in Game | $124,454.55 | $58,344.62 | 2 |
| World Cup Fastest Goal | $123,323.68 | $90,710.48 | 6 |
| Player Group Goals | $103,964.24 | $100,886.64 | 177 |
| World Cup Win Group | $98,407.96 | $50,443.69 | 5 |
| what song will be performed at event | $83,048.07 | $55,163.01 | 20 |
| World Cup Longest Penalty Shootout | $81,088.73 | $49,595.66 | 8 |
| Mbappe to Break the World Soccer Cup All-Time Goals Record | $78,005.75 | $53,970.02 | 9 |
| Messi World Cup | $75,708.56 | $45,830.37 | 1 |
| World Cup Country First Goal | $71,766.65 | $68,323.47 | 1,162 |
| what song will be performed at event | $57,964.57 | $40,709.80 | 11 |
| World Cup Olimpico Goal | $54,199.48 | $43,470.90 | 1 |
| world cup song reach top 10 | $48,292.76 | $33,082.92 | 1 |
| World Cup Host Nation to Win | $47,541.50 | $37,207.38 | 1 |
| what song will be performed at event | $45,807.06 | $31,919.58 | 10 |
| FIFA us pull | $45,405.88 | $28,474.88 | 1 |
| World Cup Every Team to Score a Goal | $43,745.16 | $35,831.96 | 1 |
| World Cup Goals Allowed | $42,527.83 | $35,153.49 | 14 |
| FIFA US pull game | $38,302.33 | $22,231.87 | 1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo world cup | $38,067.24 | $24,858.71 | 1 |
| World Soccer Cup Goal Streak | $34,571.39 | $26,530.68 | 6 |
| World Cup Region Teams to Reach Knockout Stage | $34,460.34 | $25,280.65 | 54 |
| World Cup All Host Nations to Reach Knockout Round | $33,124.05 | $20,866.80 | 1 |
| World Cup Game Location | $25,315.12 | $16,322.13 | 2 |
| World Cup 3rd Place Qualification | $19,931.19 | $19,007.90 | 12 |
| World Cup song | $18,608.00 | $0.00 | 11 |
| World Cup Club Goals | $18,158.41 | $15,420.41 | 9 |
| World Cup Concede First | $13,534.19 | $11,923.30 | 4 |
| Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup? | $9,917.51 | $4,806.09 | 1 |
| World Cup Group Points | $6,416.53 | $5,030.22 | 2 |
| Player World Cup | $4,862.57 | $3,273.39 | 1 |
| DR Congo World Cup | $3,608.00 | $0.00 | 1 |
| World Cup Free Kick Goal | $1,399.16 | $951.43 | 1 |
Game and advancement markets drove most trading
Most of the World Cup volume came from the tournament’s core soccer markets. Game markets accounted for $4.49 billion, or nearly one-third of the total, while markets on which team would advance added another $2.50 billion.
Together, those two categories generated just over half of all directly tracked volume. Adding the $1.54 billion traded in the tournament-winner series brings the three largest categories to $8.54 billion, or about 62% of the total.
Correct-score markets were the only other category to top $1 billion. Match totals, spreads and player-goal markets rounded out the seven largest categories, which combined for nearly 84% of all volume.
| Market category | Trading volume | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Game | $4.49B | 32.7% |
| To advance | $2.50B | 18.2% |
| Tournament winner | $1.54B | 11.2% |
| Correct score | $1.02B | 7.4% |
| Match total | $763.7M | 5.5% |
| Spread | $627.8M | 4.6% |
| Player goals | $593.7M | 4.3% |
Argentina led $1.54 billion tournament-winner market
Kalshi’s tournament-winner market generated $1.54 billion across separate contracts for each country. Argentina drew the most trading within the series, with $326 million, followed by Spain at $133.4 million and the United States at $83.2 million.
Argentina’s contract was also the most-traded individual World Cup listing identified by DeFi Rate. Mexico to advance against England ranked second overall at $158.7 million, while Spain’s winner contract ranked third.
Advancement contracts accounted for five of the eight largest individual listings. The United States to beat Turkey was the only standard game-winner contract among them.
| Individual contract | Trading volume |
|---|---|
| Argentina to win the World Cup | $326.0M |
| Mexico to advance against England | $158.7M |
| Spain to win the World Cup | $133.4M |
| France to advance against Spain | $102.4M |
| Norway to advance against England | $101.0M |
| United States to beat Turkey | $96.8M |
| Argentina to advance against England | $94.7M |
| Cape Verde to advance against Argentina | $89.8M |
Kalshi’s consumer-facing World Cup winner page later displayed $1.89 billion in volume after the exchange’s front end began presenting the tournament-winner series as a Spain-Argentina final matchup. DeFi Rate used the $1.54 billion reflected in the underlying series contracts to remain consistent with the rest of the analysis.
Mexico-England was the most-traded match
The July 5 Mexico-England match generated $401.9 million across Kalshi’s directly listed markets, more than any other World Cup match.
DeFi Rate calculated the totals by combining contracts tied to the same game, including game winner, advancement, correct-score, totals, spreads, player and other match-specific markets. Mexico-England’s total was driven by $223 million in trading on which team would advance.
The France-England third-place match ranked second at $333.2 million, narrowly ahead of the France-Spain semifinal and the Spain-Argentina final. The final’s $325.1 million total includes only markets tied directly to the match, not the separate $1.54 billion tournament-winner series that accumulated trading throughout the competition. Six matches generated more than $300 million each.
| Match | Trading volume |
|---|---|
| Mexico vs. England | $401.9M |
| France vs. England | $333.2M |
| France vs. Spain | $326.1M |
| Spain vs. Argentina | $325.1M |
| England vs. Argentina | $316.8M |
| Norway vs. England | $315.2M |
| Argentina vs. Cape Verde | $271.4M |
| United States vs. Belgium | $262.0M |
World Cup run coincided with Kalshi records
Kalshi recorded more than $10 billion in overall weekly volume during the weeks ending June 27, July 4 and July 11.
The exchange’s all-time record week came from June 21 through June 27, when total volume reached $10.81 billion. That was nearly double the $5.76 billion recorded two weeks earlier, as the World Cup moved through its group stage.
Kalshi also set a single-day record on July 11, with $2.13 billion traded across the exchange as the final two World Cup quarterfinals were played. Sports markets accounted for $1.08 billion, or just over half of that day’s total.
June set a Kalshi monthly record with $33 billion in platformwide volume, up 84% from the previous high of $17.91 billion in May, according to TickerTracker data. The World Cup drove much of the surge after beginning June 11. July volume has already reached $27.99 billion as of July 20, leaving it about $5.01 billion short of June’s record with 11 days remaining.
The World Cup set a new benchmark for sports trading on Kalshi. Volume could ease during the more than seven-week gap between the July 19 final and the start of the NFL regular season on Sept. 9. The tournament’s success gives the exchange reason to expect another surge once the NFL regular season begins, with a full schedule capable of sustaining trading deep into the winter.
