UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City lands at Paycom Center on July 18 with a middleweight scrap for the main event, with former champion Dricus Du Plessis returning to the Octagon to take on Kamaru Usman.
The main card gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with early prelims kicking off the action at 5 p.m. ET.
Kalshi and Polymarket traders are lining up almost identically across five main-card bouts, with only one true 50-50 coin flip on the entire slate.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown through the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the two platforms redefining how fans engage with MMA outcomes.
UFC Fight Night card preview: Kalshi vs. Polymarket markets
Main Event — Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman
Dricus Du Plessis enters as the clear favorite in the middleweight headliner, with Kalshi pricing him at 67¢ and Polymarket at 66¢, reflecting his physicality, volume striking, and championship pedigree over the former welterweight king. Usman sits at 33-35¢ across the two platforms. The method-of-victory markets tell the real story: Du Plessis by KO/TKO (32-35¢) nearly doubles Usman’s finishing price (15-17¢), suggesting traders see the South African’s power and cardio as the difference-maker in later rounds.
With decision odds sitting just above 50¢ on both platforms, this reads as a grinding five-round affair where Usman’s wrestling credentials could still drag the champ into deep water, but the market consensus favors Du Plessis finding a finish before the judges get involved.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis | 66% / 66¢ | 67% / 67¢ |
| Kamaru Usman | 35% / 35¢ | 33% / 33¢ |
| Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO | 35% / 35¢ | 32% / 32¢ |
| Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO | 17% / 17¢ | 15% / 15¢ |
| Fight won by decision | 53% / 53¢ | 52% / 52¢ |
Co-Main — Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
The co-main is the widest gap on the card, with Christian Leroy Duncan a heavy 78¢ favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket against the 42-year-old veteran Jared Cannonier, who’s dropped three of his last four bouts against elite competition. The age and durability narrative is showing up directly in the pricing. Duncan’s KO/TKO markets (37-40¢) dwarf Cannonier’s (13-17¢), and submission odds have widened to 21¢ on Kalshi, hinting that traders see multiple finishing paths for the younger Englishman.
Duncan expects “the best version of Cannonier” to show up, which suggests his camp isn’t sleeping on the experience gap, but the market clearly believes power and youth win out here.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 23% / 23¢ | 23% / 23¢ |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 78% / 78¢ | 78% / 78¢ |
| Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO | 13% / 13¢ | 15% / 15¢ |
| Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO | 40% / 40¢ | 36% / 36¢ |
| Fight won by decision | 53% / 53¢ | 57% / 57¢ |
| Fight won by submission | 13% / 13¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez
Chase Hooper is a heavy favorite over Mitch Ramirez, with Polymarket at 78¢ and Kalshi at 76¢, giving him roughly a three-in-four implied chance of victory. Ramirez is priced at 23¢-25¢, making him one of the bigger underdogs on the card despite the lightweight fight sitting outside the marquee spotlight.
Submission is actually the most heavily backed finishing method here at 41¢-42¢, a nod to Hooper’s elite jiu-jitsu game. His KO/TKO number sits at 18¢-25¢, and decision trails at 29¢-30¢, telling traders that if this fight goes long, Hooper’s grappling threat is expected to be the deciding factor rather than a striking battle.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 78% / 78¢ | 76% / 76¢ |
| Mitch Ramirez | 23% / 23¢ | 25% / 25¢ |
| Chase Hooper by KO/TKO | 25% / 25¢ | 18% / 18¢ |
| Mitch Ramirez by KO/TKO | 16% / 16¢ | 17% / 17¢ |
| Fight won by decision | 30% / 30¢ | 29% / 29¢ |
| Fight won by submission | 42% / 42¢ | 41% / 41¢ |
Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline
Fatima Kline is a decisive 81¢ favorite on both platforms over Tabatha Ricci, with the strawweight matchup pricing as one of the more lopsided bouts on the main card. Ricci hasn’t lost by finish inside the UFC since June 2021, and her three prior losses have all gone to decision, which lines up with the market’s heavy lean toward a decision outcome (74¢ on both books) rather than a finish for either side.
Kline’s grappling volume (2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes) makes the submission market on Kalshi (31¢) worth watching if the fight hits the mat early.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 20% / 20¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
| Fatima Kline | 81% / 81¢ | 81% / 81¢ |
| Tabatha Ricci by KO/TKO | 7% / 7¢ | 4% / 4¢ |
| Fatima Kline by KO/TKO | 17% / 17¢ | 17% / 17¢ |
| Fight won by decision | 74% / 74¢ | 74% / 74¢ |
| Fight won by submission | 15% / 15¢ | 31% / 31¢ |
Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes
Tommy McMillen is favored at 61¢ on both platforms over Alberto Montes, though Kalshi’s Montes price (30¢) trails Polymarket’s more generous 40¢, creating a rare split between the books on this featherweight bout. The submission market is the standout number here, sitting at a lofty 55¢ on Polymarket and 46¢ on Kalshi, which tells traders this fight is more likely to end on the canvas than standing.
McMillen’s unbeaten 10-0 record backs up the market’s confidence, but the gap between platforms on Montes’ win probability suggests some disagreement on just how live the underdog really is.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy McMillen | 61% / 61¢ | 31% / 31¢ |
| Alberto Montes | 40% / 40¢ | 30% / 30¢ |
| Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO | 27% / 27¢ | 27% / 27¢ |
| Alberto Montes by KO/TKO | 10% / 10¢ | 9% / 9¢ |
| Fight won by decision | 27% / 27¢ | 24% / 24¢ |
| Fight won by submission | 55% / 55¢ | 46% / 46¢ |
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
The seven-fight preliminary card is loaded with prospects worth tracking once the main card wraps, and the undercard leans heavily on lighter weight classes.
The marquee attraction of the prelims is Austin Bashi (14-1) taking on Jose Miguel Delgado (11-2) in a featherweight bout between two fighters with real finishing instincts, making it the natural centerpiece of the undercard. Right behind it, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (10-2) meets Seok Hyeon Ko (13-2) in a welterweight clash that pairs contrasting styles and figures to draw plenty of live-line movement as the fight unfolds.
Further down the card, an intriguing prospect matchup sees unbeaten Levi Rodrigues (5-0) step up against the more experienced Felipe Franco (10-2) at light heavyweight, a test of youth and momentum against a veteran trying to spoil the party. Alden Coria (12-3) and Stewart Nicoll (8-3) round out the flyweight action in a bout between two fighters each looking to string together wins and climb toward the rankings.
For fans who like their fights fast and violent, RJ Harris and Alvin Hines (7-1) bring pure heavyweight power to the early card, the kind of matchup where a single clean shot can end things in seconds. Opening the night, Anna Melisano (6-1) faces Dione Barbosa (9-4) in a strawweight bout that could set an early tone and give bettors a first read on how the arena and judges are trending before the main card gets underway.
