Germany and Paraguay meet in the Round of 32 at Gillette Stadium today with a spot in the last 16 up for grabs in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The match kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Kalshi odds have the heavily favored German squad as the team to beat in this critical knockout-stage matchup. New users can use the Kalshi promo code RATE to claim a $10 trading bonus for the 2026 Germany vs. Paraguay match.
How to claim the Kalshi $10 bonus for Germany vs Paraguay
Enter the promo code RATE when creating a new Kalshi account to claim a $10 trading bonus for World Cup markets. Here are the steps to follow to sign up and claim the bonus.
- Download the Kalshi app: Install the free Kalshi app for your iOS or Android device and begin the registration process. You can also visit the website and click on the Sign Up button.
- Enter the promo code RATE: Enter the Kalshi promo code RATE when prompted during the sign-up process.
- Verify your identity. You will need a valid driver’s license or passport to verify your identity.
- Fund your account: Deposit and trade $10 on any market using one of the accepted payment options, including a bank account, debit cards, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- Place your first trade. Review the market rules and make your first trade on the Germany vs Paraguay match or any other World Cup market. Kalshi will credit your account with the $10 bonus after the market settles.
Check out our Kalshi promo code guide for the full terms and conditions. Enter the Kalshi code for your state
| Promo Code | Eligible States |
|---|---|
| RATE | All States + DC, excluding AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, and OH |
2026 World Cup market odds: Germany vs Paraguay
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Germany to advance | 85% | -567 |
| Paraguay to advance | 15% | +567 |
| Regulation time – Germany | 74% | -285 |
| Regulation time – Paraguay | 9% | +1011 |
| Regulation time – Draw | 18% | +456 |
| Regulation time – Germany to win by 1.5 goals | 46% | +117 |
| Regulation time – Over 2.5 goals scored | 56% | -127 |
| Regulation time – Both teams to score | 45% | +122 |
| Goal scorer: Kai Havertz – Germany | 40% | +150 |
Germany vs Paraguay preview
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage continues today as a star-studded German team looks to get back on track against a stout, defensive-minded Paraguay side. Julian Nagelsmann’s side roared out of the blocks with an explosive 7-1 rout of Curaçao. However, a surprising 2-1 loss to Ecuador in their Group E finale showed sudden vulnerability in their transition defense.
Meanwhile, Paraguay booked their Round of 32 spot, grinding out results, led by a gutsy 1-0 win over Turkiye and a goalless draw with Australia. The two countries have faced off in knockouts before, with Germany defeating Paraguay 1-0 in the 2002 Round of 16. For traders looking at the broader World Cup markets on Kalshi, the chances favor Germany moving on to the Round of 16, but Paraguay’s ability to stifle high-powered offenses makes the “To Advance” market an attractive place to be if you see it as a low-scoring, physical grind.
It will come down to the tactical battle with Germany’s dynamic shot conversion rates against a highly disciplined low block from Paraguay. All eyes will be on Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz to crack a rock-solid South American defense that has given up very little since a slip-up in the opening match against the USMNT. Paraguay’s tournament arc has been about their collective grit under duress, particularly after Miguel Almirón’s red card against Turkiye forced them to survive with ten men, proving they won’t wilt when out-possessed.
One stat that the traders will be careful to note is that Paraguay have struggled to find the back of the net against European opposition in knockout stages, having hit zero goals in four such historic encounters. For those who have the $10 trading bonus, viewing live markets for “Total Goals” could provide a significant upside, as a quick German goal would compel Paraguay to come out of their defensive shell and change the entire momentum of this game.
Why trade Germany vs Paraguay on Kalshi
Kalshi turns the 2026 World Cup into a dynamic trading experience. Rather than locking in a single pregame pick, you can buy and sell shares on the match outcome in real time, meaning if Germany goes up early and your position looks strong, you can cash out before the final whistle, or double down if Paraguay pulls level and the odds shift in your favor. That flexibility puts Kalshi in a different lane than a traditional sportsbook, where your bet is frozen the moment you place it.
Here, you’re actively managing a position the same way you might on a financial market, with prices reflecting live probabilities as the game unfolds. It’s a smarter, more engaging way to have skin in the game, and if you haven’t signed up yet, using promo code RATE gets you a $10 bonus just for getting started.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
