The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 is starting to take shape. Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan now join Mexico and USA as the latest teams to qualify for the knockout stage after securing impressive wins yesterday.
Prediction markets have Spain at 89% probability to beat Saudi Arabia today. The team was a lock for the knockout stage until a disappointing 0-0 draw against Cape Verde. A flat draw with Cape Verde, plus France’s strong start, has dropped La Roja to second-favorite to lift the trophy.
Here’s where the markets are pricing the Spain vs. Saudi Arabia matchup across Kalshi and Polymarket. Kick off is at 12 p.m ET.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Spain) | 89% | 89% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 8% | 9% |
| Moneyline (Saudi Arabia) | 4% | 5% |
| Spread (Spain -2.5) | 55% | 55% |
| Spread (Saudi Arabia +2.5) | 46% | 46% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 51% | 51% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 50% | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 35% | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 66% | 67% |
| First Team to Score (Spain) | 87% | 87% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 4% |
| First Team to Score (Saudi Arabia) | 13% | 11% |
Saudi Arabia battled to a 1-1 draw with Uruguay on Matchday 1, but that was largely down to a heroic performance from goalkeeper Mohammed Al-Owais. He made 10 saves in that game, as the Saudis had to repel wave after wave of attacks from Uruguay. Spain is all too familiar with goalkeeping heroics, as Cape Verde’s Vozinha delivered a masterclass in that 0-0 draw on Matchday 1. Spain dominated the game, with 74% of the possession and 23 shots, but Vozinha channeled his inner Gandalf and essentially said: “You shall not pass!”
Spain was missing star wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams for most of that game, as they’ve both been struggling with injuries. Yamal could return to the starting lineup for this match, which would give La Roja a huge boost. Prediction sites give Spain an 89% chance of winning the game. The draw sits at 8%, and a Saudi Arabia win is priced at just 4%.
For more value, you can back Spain to cover a 2.5-goal spread, which is trading at 50% on Kalshi.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia headlines the slate, but several other Group stage fixtures kick off today. Here are the prediction market odds for the rest of the day’s matchups.
Belgium vs. Iran, 3 p.m. ET
Prediction markets expect Belgium to beat Iran when the teams clash at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles this afternoon (3 p.m. ET kickoff).
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Belgium) | 68% | 69% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 21% | 21% |
| Moneyline (Iran) | 13% | 12% |
| Spread (Belgium -1.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Spread (Iran +1.5) | 57% | 57% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 54% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 47% | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 50% | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 51% | 53% |
| First Team to Score (Belgium) | 72% | 73% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 6% |
| First Team to Score (Iran) | 26% | 23% |
Belgium could only draw 1-1 with Egypt in its opening game of the tournament. Romelu Lukaku made an instant impact after coming off the bench in the 67th minute of that game. Within seconds of coming onto the pitch, he caused Egypt defender Mohamed Hany to score an own goal under intense pressure. That goal made it 1-1, and Lukaku almost won the game for Belgium, but his late header drifted wide.
Manager Rudi Garcia suggested that Lukaku isn’t fit enough to start yet, but he could cause problems for Iran’s defense in the second half of this game. The Belgians will also be missing star winger Jérémy Doku, who is sick. However, traders still think they will have enough firepower to beat Iran.
The Iranians drew 2-2 with a weak New Zealand team on Matchday 1, and they’ve struggled amid increasingly difficult preparation conditions during this tournament.
For that reason, Belgium is priced at 69% with Kalshi and 68% with Polymarket to win this game.
Uruguay vs. Cape Verde, 6 p.m. ET
Uruguay will aim to return to winning ways when it takes on Cape Verde in Miami this evening (6 p.m. ET kickoff). Marcelo Bielsa’s men were thwarted by Al-Owais in their 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia earlier this week. They will now come up against another confident goalkeeper in Vozinha, but prediction markets expect them to win this match.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Uruguay) | 68% | 68% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 23% |
| Moneyline (Cape Verde) | 11% | 11% |
| Spread (Uruguay -1.5) | 38% | 39% |
| Spread (Cape Verde +1.5) | 63% | 62% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 42% | 41% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 59% | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 39% | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 62% | 62% |
| First Team to Score (Uruguay) | 70% | 72% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 11% | 10% |
| First Team to Score (Cape Verde) | 19% | 19% |
A Uruguay win is priced at 68% with Polymarket and Kalshi. La Celeste can call upon elite players like Federico Valverde and Maxi Araújo, so they have enough quality to outclass Cape Verde. However, Vozinha was superb against Spain last time out, so it may take something special to beat him this evening.
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 59% with Polymarket, as traders predict another tense, low-scoring game.
New Zealand vs. Egypt, 3 p.m. ET
New Zealand defied the odds to clinch a 2-2 draw with Iran in its opener. The Kiwis were clear underdogs for that game, but two goals from winger Elijah Just earned them a valuable point. Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood assisted both of Just’s goals, and he impressed with his hold-up play.
Preditction markets expect New Zealand to struggle against a strong Egypt team today. The game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET in Vancouver. Egypt played well in that 1-1 draw with Belgium, and it has dangerous forwards like Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush, and Emam Ashour in its ranks. An Egypt win is priced at 61% with Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (New Zealand) | 16% | 17% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 24% |
| Moneyline (Egypt) | 62% | 61% |
| Spread (New Zealand +1.5) | 66% | 67% |
| Spread (Egypt -1.5) | 35% | 31% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 47% | 47% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 54% | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 46% | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 55% | 55% |
| First Team to Score (New Zealand) | 28% | 28% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 9% |
| First Team to Score (Egypt) | 66% | 65% |
The draw sits at 24%, and New Zealand is a 17% underdog. If you expect a heavy win for Egypt, Kalshi has 33% on the Pharaohs covering a 1.5-goal spread. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 47%, which looks interesting after that 2-2 draw between New Zealand and Iran earlier this week.
Today’s matches could determine which teams qualify for the knockout stage in Groups G and H, but the drama doesn’t end there. Soccer fans can still look forward to an additional 16 games on Matchday 2 this week, and teams like Scotland, Ecuador, and Paraguay are gearing up for crucial Matchday 3 fixtures. Prices are moving rapidly on Kalshi and Polymarket as the picture sharpens.
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