A member of Congress has moved to restrict prediction market activity within his own office, marking a first-of-its-kind step as lawmakers increasingly scrutinize the role of insider information in event contract trading.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) announced Wednesday that his office will prohibit staff from participating in prediction markets, including platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, when trading on political, legislative, or geopolitical outcomes.
The move comes as Congress considers a growing slate of bills aimed at limiting or reshaping prediction markets, with some proposals directly addressing concerns that government officials may be using inside information to trade on real-world events.
Moulton imposes office-wide ban on staff trading tied to official information
The policy, which took effect immediately, applies to all personnel in Moulton’s congressional office, including legislative, communications, operations, and district staff.
Under the policy, staff are barred from trading or holding positions on outcomes tied to government activity or global events, particularly where information is obtained through official duties.
“Prediction markets have become a playground for corrupt insiders,” Moulton said in a statement, arguing that the ability to trade on elections, wars, or policy decisions creates “a perverse incentive structure that poses a genuine threat to American society today.”
While limited to a single office, the directive represents a notable escalation in how lawmakers are approaching prediction markets. Rather than waiting for clearer federal rules or relying on platforms to police the activity, Moulton’s office has effectively adopted a precautionary stance that treats participation itself as a potential conflict of interest.
“Congressional staff and the Members they work for exist to serve the constituents of the districts they represent, not to profit off of the very policy decisions and world events that we are here to respond to,” Moulton said. “My office has not, and will not, engage in these trades that run counter to every principle of a clean, honest government that works for the people.”
The policy does not carve out specific platforms or contract types, instead applying broadly to prediction market activity tied to real-world outcomes that could intersect with government knowledge.
PREDICT Act targets insider participation at the federal level
In Moulton’s March 25 announcement of the staff prediction markets ban, he called on “every single American elected official to do the same.” A new House bill announced the same day seeks to codify similar restrictions across the federal government.
Led by Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act — or PREDICT Act — would prohibit members of Congress, senior executive branch officials, congressional staff, and their immediate families from trading on prediction markets tied to political events, policy decisions, or other government actions.
The bipartisan proposal is explicitly aimed at preventing officials from using sensitive or nonpublic information to profit from event contract trading, a concern that has become central to the debate over prediction markets.
“The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain, and the rise of prediction markets has made those concerns even more relevant,” Budzinski said in a news release, pointing to recent cases where traders profited from events related to the U.S./Iran conflict and the government shutdown.
Smith framed the bill in similar terms, saying public service should not be “a pathway to profit” and that passage of the bill would “give Americans confidence that the decisions of their elected officials are guided by merit, not personal profit.”
Other proposals highlight widening congressional push on prediction markets
The PREDICT Act is the latest in a rapidly growing surge of congressional proposals targeting prediction markets.
In total, 13 bills have been introduced or announced in 2026, including three with companion versions across both chambers, reflecting roughly 10 distinct legislative approaches to regulating or restricting the emerging market.
Some of those proposals, like the PREDICT Act, focus specifically on whether government insiders should be allowed to participate at all.
The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, introduced in January by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), would prohibit trading based on nonpublic government information. The End Prediction Market Corruption Act, introduced earlier this month and led by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), targets conflicts of interest by barring senior officials from participating in prediction markets.
At the same time, lawmakers are also pursuing restrictions that go beyond insider concerns.
A newly announced bicameral proposal, the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, led by Sen. Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), would impose a sweeping ban on prediction markets tied to sports, elections, government actions, and military events, according to reporting by Axios. Rather than focusing on whether members of Congress or federal staff can trade, the bill would direct regulators to block entire categories of event contracts, with Merkley arguing that allowing well-timed bets on congressional decisions or military actions creates conditions “ripe for corruption” and undermines public trust.
The flurry of proposals shows how Washington is targeting prediction markets from multiple angles. Moulton, meanwhile, is taking matters into his own hands by implementing restrictions at the office level. Whether others follow his lead remains to be seen.
