Most of tonight’s Oscar races were decided weeks ago — at least according to the $120 million sitting in prediction market contracts. The exception is Best Actor, which flipped in the last six hours and still hasn’t stopped moving. Kalshi and Polymarket are in close agreement on most other categories, with Best Supporting Actress the only remaining race where the market genuinely can’t make up its mind, and the sweep contracts pricing One Battle After Another for a dominant night even if the per-category numbers don’t look overly dramatic.
Combined Oscar volume across Kalshi and Polymarket has crossed $120 million, with Best Picture drawing more than $52 million between the two platforms. The ceremony begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC and Hulu. Conan O’Brien hosts for the second consecutive year — and yes, there’s a market for what he’ll say.
Key odds as of approximately 3:30 p.m. ET on March 15, 2026, from the DeFi Rate Oscars tracker:
- Best Picture: One Battle After Another 77% (Kalshi) / 79% (Polymarket)
- Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson 93% / 92% — the widest cross-platform consensus on the board
- Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan 61% (Kalshi & Polymarket), leading since Mar 7 on $14.9M+ in volume
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley 96% (Kalshi) / 97% (Polymarket)
- Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn 77% / 79%, $10.5M combined
- Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan 57% / 56% — the closest race tonight
- Best Original Screenplay: Sinners 95% (Polymarket), $742K in volume
- Sweep market: One Battle After Another at 34% to win 6 Oscars tonight
Use Kalshi promo code DEFI for a $10 bonus on sign-up.
Note: Kalshi odds are available to US traders. Polymarket odds are based on the international site.
98th Academy Awards odds board
| Market | Leading outcome | Prob | Odds | Venues | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major awards | |||||
Best Picture | One Battle After Another | 77% | -335 | KP | $52M |
Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | 93% | -1329 | KP | $10.2M |
| Acting | |||||
Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan | 61% | +164 | KP | $14.9M+ |
Best Actress | Jessie Buckley | 96% | -2400 | KP | $5.6M |
Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | 77% | -335 | KP | $10.5M |
Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan | 57% | -133 | KP | $5.5M |
| Craft & technical | |||||
Best Original Screenplay | Sinners | 95% | -1900 | P | $742K |
Best Adapted Screenplay | One Battle After Another | 96% | -2400 | K | $842K |
Best Cinematography | One Battle After Another | 77% | -335 | KP | $4.7M |
Best Animated Feature | KPop Demon Hunters | 96% | -2400 | K | $1.1M |
| Sweep markets — how many Oscars? | |||||
One Battle After Another Most likely total: 6 wins | 6 Oscars | 34% | +194 | P | $133K |
Sinners Most likely total: 4 wins | 4 Oscars | 33% | +203 | P | $216K |
Frankenstein Most likely total: 3 wins | 3 Oscars | 83% | -488 | P | $108K |
Hamnet Most likely total: 1 win | 1 Oscar | 90% | -900 | P | $93.6K |
| Mention markets | |||||
Conan O’Brien mentions Kalshi: AI / Artificial Intelligence leads at 69% | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 69% | -223 | K | $197K |
What will be said? Top pick: “President” · Chalamet, Trump, Ukraine also trading · Trade on Polymarket → | “President” | 88% | -733 | P | $105K |
| Celebrity attendance | |||||
Who will attend? Three-way coin flip · top pick | Connor Storrie | 29% | +245 | K | $747K |
One Battle After Another is pricing like a lock — and the sweep markets agree
One Battle After Another sits at 77% on Kalshi and 79% on Polymarket in Best Picture, with combined volume exceeding $52 million — by far the largest single Oscar contract on either platform. The film also leads Best Adapted Screenplay at 96% (Kalshi) and Best Cinematography at 77% across both platforms. Add in Paul Thomas Anderson’s near-certain Best Director win, and the market is effectively calling OBAA the dominant film of the night before a single award has been handed out.
The sweep markets make that explicit. Polymarket’s “how many Oscars will One Battle After Another win?” contract has 6 wins as the leading outcome at 34%. Sinners is priced for 4 wins at 33% — suggesting the market sees a meaningful OBAA sweep and a decent Sinners consolation haul as the most likely scenario. Both outcomes have real uncertainty attached: 34% and 33% are pluralities, not certainties, and the field is wide enough that either film could finish above or below that target.
The Frankenstein sweep contract stands out. Polymarket is at 83% that Frankenstein wins exactly 3 Oscars — a strong conviction call for a film that doesn’t lead any of the individual category markets visible here. Technical categories aren’t tracked individually on this board, which is where films like Frankenstein tend to collect. Hamnet is at 90% for exactly 1 win, which aligns with its current odds in the acting and screenplay markets.
Paul Thomas Anderson has the most lopsided race on the board
Best Director has drawn $10.2 million in combined volume across both platforms, with Anderson at 93% (Kalshi) and 92% (Polymarket) — the tightest cross-platform alignment on the board, and the most one-sided race. Ryan Coogler sits at 9% and Chloé Zhao at 1%. Anderson’s curve has moved almost exclusively upward since September with no meaningful reversal across six months of data. At these prices, the market isn’t really offering a tradeable position in either direction.
Best Actor: MBJ leads, but Chalamet is still breathing
Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at 61% on Kalshi and 61% on Polymarket, on more than $14.9M in volume on Kalshi alone. The market has been his since March 7, when Kalshi’s chart shows MBJ crossing above Timothée Chalamet around 9 a.m. ET — a clean pivot point after Chalamet had held the lead for most of the prior month. Chalamet is now at 30%, down 14 points on the day. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) sits at 3.9%.
Today’s moves are acceleration, not the original flip. Jordan is up 13 points on the day while Chalamet is shedding ground, widening a gap that was already established. At 61/30, Jordan is a meaningful favorite, but a 30% Chalamet position means the market isn’t treating this as decided — it’s still the most contested major acting category on the board tonight.
The acting categories: mostly settled, one exception
Best Actress is the most decided acting contract on the board. Jessie Buckley sits at 96% (Kalshi) and 97% (Polymarket) on $5.6 million in combined volume, with Rose Byrne at 3% and Emma Stone at 1%. Buckley’s probability never dropped below 75% at any point in the six-month chart window.
Best Supporting Actor has drawn $10.5 million across both platforms — the second-largest Oscar pool after Best Picture — with Sean Penn at 77% on Kalshi and 79% on Polymarket. Stellan Skarsgård is at 15% and Delroy Lindo at 8%. Penn briefly lost the lead to Skarsgård in mid-January before reclaiming it and extending through February. At -335, he’s a solid favorite, but this category produced the most interesting chart movement of any acting race this season.
Best Supporting Actress is the genuinely close race tonight. Amy Madigan leads at 57% (Kalshi) and 56% (Polymarket) on $5.5 million in combined volume, with Teyana Taylor at 24% and Wunmi Mosaku at 19%. The three-way spread compressed sharply since late February — Taylor held the lead through most of January before Madigan took over. At -133, Madigan is a lean, not a lock, and both platforms agree on that reading.
Screenplay markets: Sinners and OBAA split the category
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay are essentially splitting their frontrunner between the two films. Sinners leads Original Screenplay at 95% on Polymarket on $742K in volume. One Battle After Another leads Adapted Screenplay at 96% on Kalshi on $842K. Both are high-conviction contracts — neither has a credible challenger in single digits. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners winning Original Screenplay while losing Best Picture would be the market’s expected outcome, and both trades are priced accordingly.
Mention markets: AI on Kalshi, politics on Polymarket
Kalshi’s Conan O’Brien mention market has AI/Artificial Intelligence at 69% (-223) on $197K in volume, with Hulu at 55% and Iran at 34%. The Iran term only entered the board around March 14 and climbed quickly — late entrants to mention markets sometimes reflect information about planned monologue content, and Conan’s previous hosting turns have leaned into current events heavily.
Polymarket’s “what will be said during the Oscars?” contract tells a different story. “President” leads at 88% on $1,796 in volume — a near-lock priced on the assumption that someone on stage will say the word in any context. Trump is trading at 58% on $17,493 in volume, the most liquid term in the market. “Chalamet 5+ times” sits at 56% on $9,640 in volume, reflecting both his nomination for Marty Supreme and his general celebrity presence at this year’s ceremony. Ukraine is at 54% and Epstein at 45%. The political term concentration is notable: four of the five most-traded outcomes in a broadcast mention market are explicitly political, which says something about what Polymarket traders expect Conan to spend his monologue on tonight.
Celebrity attendance is a genuine three-way race
Kalshi’s attendance market has drawn $747K with no clear leader. Connor Storrie tops the board at 29% (+245), followed by Margot Robbie at 22% and Hailee Steinfeld at 20%. The top three are separated by fewer than 10 percentage points, putting this well within noise range. Attendance contracts tend to see sharp moves in the red carpet window as sightings and social media confirmations surface. If there’s a late-breaking trading opportunity tonight, this is the category to watch.
Ceremony details
The 98th Academy Awards airs tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC and Hulu from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Conan O’Brien hosts for the second consecutive year. All prediction market prices are as of approximately 3:30 p.m. ET on March 15, 2026. Prices update continuously and may differ at the time of reading.te continuously and may differ at the time of reading.
