Industry

State of the Union betting odds and lines

Industry

SOTU Odds: Mentions, Attendance, Trump’s Speech at Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi and Polymarket International have more than $17 million in combined SOTU volume across mentions, attendance, Trump's speech duration, handshakes, and more. Here's everything you can...

Cheryle Shepstone

February 24, 2026

Data

Trump’s State of the Union Is a Multi-Million Dollar Mention Market — Here’s How Traders Are Playing It

We found average hit rate, historical trends, and what two experts have to say about Trump mention markets heading into the State of the Union...

Valerie Cross

February 24, 2026

Prediction market volume steady at 5.25 billion

Industry

Prediction Market Volume Holds at $5.25B as Kalshi Nears 50% Market Share

Weekly notional volume across prediction market platforms dipped 1.4% to $5.25 billion for Feb. 16–22. Kalshi jumped 6.7% to $2.59 billion as Polymarket slid 3.2% WoW to $1.83...

Valerie Cross

February 23, 2026

FiscalNote explores political prediction markets as institutional demand grows for market-based policy forecasts

Industry

FiscalNote Bets on Political Prediction Markets as New Frontier for Policy Intelligence

The publicly traded policy intelligence platform formalized its political prediction markets ambitions in a Feb. 20 SEC filing, tapping Dr. Laila Mintas as a strategic adviser and outlining...

Mike Breen

February 23, 2026

Kalshi–Tradeweb Deal Targets Institutional Macro Hedging

Industry

Kalshi–Tradeweb Deal Signals Prediction Markets’ Push Into Institutional Macro Hedging

Embedding Kalshi data in Tradeweb first gives institutional desks a new signal layer for hedging and positioning, but direct trading integration would be structurally disruptive by letting...

Dirk van Haaster

February 20, 2026

Prediction markets gain Fed attention as economists weigh their value alongside traditional forecasts

Industry

Federal Reserve Study Finds Kalshi Markets Rival Traditional Economic Forecast Tools

Fed economists find Kalshi’s macro markets to be helpful complementary real-time forecasting tools, as CEPR research highlights pricing bias concerns that require careful...

Mike Breen

February 19, 2026

NYSE President: Prediction Markets Move Into Traditional Finance

Industry

NYSE President Says Prediction Markets Are Now Moving Traditional Finance

New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin says prediction markets are becoming inputs into traditional market behavior. Speaking at the World Liberty forum at Mar-a-Lago, Martin said it...

Dirk van Haaster

February 19, 2026

Polymarket Launches Public API, Unlocks Permissionless Liquidity

Industry

Polymarket Opens the Pipes: Public APIs and Permissionless Liquidity Mark Structural Shift

Polymarket US is rolling out public APIs and permissionless liquidity rewards to encourage deeper liquidity, tighter spreads, and more institutional participation. But there are...

Dirk van Haaster

February 19, 2026

Industry

Novig Raises $75M, Positions CFTC-Regulated Exchange as Future of Sports Betting

Pantera-led funding round values company at $500 million as Novig pivots from sweepstakes sports betting exchange model to federally-regulated prediction...

Mike Breen

February 18, 2026

ETF applications for election prediction markets

Industry

Bitwise Joins Roundhill in Race to Launch US Election Prediction ETFs

Bitwise filed with the SEC to launch 2028 US election ETFs under its new PredictionShares brand, joining Roundhill and GraniteShares in the race to bring political outcome contracts to NYSE...

Alejandro Miguel

February 18, 2026

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