Bitwise officially entered the prediction market ETF race, filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday to launch a new suite of exchange-traded funds based around US elections.
The ETFs seek to be issued under a dedicated brand called PredictionShares, according to the filing, with the proposed ETFs providing exposure to the 2028 US presidential election, including upcoming House and Senate elections.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart broke the news on X, describing it as another step in “the financialization and ETF-ization of everything.”
The filing follows a similar move by Roundhill just days earlier, and also comes the same day GraniteShares filed its own related application.
What is Bitwise proposing?
Bitwise’s proposed funds would track financial contracts tied to very specific political outcomes – and they are structured as simple yes-or-no bets. Each ETF focuses on one event, such as a Democrat winning the presidency in 2028 or Republicans taking control of the Senate in 2026.
If the exact outcome happens, the underlying contract pays $1. If it does not, it settles at $0 – meaning investors could lose their full investment. For example, a “Democratic President” contract would pay out only if the person inaugurated on January 20, 2029 is a Democrat. If not, it expires worthless.
Once the election result is finalized and the contracts settle, the ETF would liquidate and return whatever value remains to shareholders. The ETFs would be actively managed, non-diversified, and listed on NYSE Arca if approved.
Mixed responses from the community
The community reaction was split, as expected.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett reposted Seyffart’s X post and quoted Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who said prediction markets are growing fast with client exposure becoming increasingly important.
Some users are skeptical.
One joked that Wall Street was turning politics into “tradfi betting,” also noting that liquidity could spike around debates or major campaign moments, leading to sharp price swings.
Another said the US seems determined to “gamble on everything,” while someone else compared it to past waves of complex financial products, like credit default obligations.
Others were more open to it. Traders already using platforms like Polymarket saw the ETF format as a natural next step – a way to get similar exposure through a regular brokerage account without needing crypto infrastructure.
Overall, the tone online mixed curiosity with caution. Some see it as financial innovation, while others think it pushes investing closer to straight-up betting.
Roundhill and earlier filings
Bitwise wasn’t the first to move. On February 14, Roundhill filed for several ETFs tied to political prediction markets.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the proposal could be groundbreaking if approved, correctly noting it might open the door to many more event-based ETFs.
Roundhill’s structure looks similar. Once again, the funds would track specific political event contracts – such as which party controls Congress or who wins the presidency – and settle based on those outcomes.
Like Bitwise’s proposal, the exposure would likely come through derivatives or swaps, not direct participation in decentralized prediction platforms.
GraniteShares filed a related proposal shortly after, showing this is not a one-off experiment.
What’s coming next?
Until recently, prediction markets mostly lived on the fringes – offshore platforms or blockchain-based apps used by crypto-natives. Putting them into ETFs would change that.
It would make election outcome contracts available through regular brokerage accounts, traded just like stocks or index funds. That shift could bring a much broader audience into event-based markets.
Still, approval is far from certain.
Products tied directly to elections raise plenty of regulatory and political concerns, and the SEC will be looking closely at market structure, manipulation risks, and investor protection in considering approval.
