Will there be another US government shutdown by Saturday?
Prediction markets are pricing another US shutdown at 99.8% for this weekend. So far, the market has $28.2M in the last 24 hours with $0 on Kalshi and another $28.2M on Polymarket. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for a US governement shutdown pulls current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini with arbitrage detection and cross-venue comparison.
Probability Over Time
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
WTBWill there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
Vol $28.2M
Spread 44.5%
Agg
99.8%— +0.0%
K
100.0%
P
99.8%
G
55.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WTB Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? | 99.8% — +0.0% | 44.5% | $28.2M |
Kalshi
100.0% |
Polymarket
99.8% |
Gemini
55.5% |
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WTB Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 99¢ | Sell @ P 99.7¢ | +0.70% | +0.30% |
No |
Outcome Diff
No meaningful within-venue diffs right now.
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Current odds and updates
Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing a partial government shutdown near 80% as Senate Democrats vow to block a $1.2 trillion funding package ahead of a midnight January 30 deadline. Shutdown odds swung from 8-11% to 80% —a 70+ point move in under 48 hours. The reversal followed Senate Democrats announcing unified opposition to funding the Department of Homeland Security.
| Platform | Contract | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? | 77-80% Yes | $8.5M+ |
| Polymarket | Another US government shutdown by January 31? | ~80% Yes | $3M+ |
Key dates
- January 22: House passed DHS funding bill (220-207) and broader spending package (H.R. 7148, 341-88)
- January 24: Fatal shooting of Minneapolis resident Alex Pretti by federal agents
- January 25-26: Senate Democrats announce they will block DHS funding; winter storm cancels Monday Senate session
- January 27: Senate returns at 3 p.m. ET
- January 28: Senate resumes consideration of H.R. 7148 (appropriations minibus) at 11 a.m. ET; cloture vote possible Thursday (Senate schedule)
- January 30: Funding deadline at midnight
- January 31: Shutdown begins if no deal
- February 2: House returns from recess
Why February 2nd matters
The Senate is considering a combined package that bundles DHS funding with Defense, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and other departments. If the Senate strips out DHS funding to pass the rest, the modified bill would require House re-approval. The House is on recess until February 2, and Speaker Mike Johnson has not indicated any plan to call members back early. This procedural reality means any Senate modification virtually guarantees at least a short partial shutdown. If this happens, both Kalshi and Polymarket will resolve as “YES” assuming the following criteria is met.
- Kalshi resolution criteria: Resolves Yes if OPM website shows the US government is at least partially shut down on January 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET.
- Polymarket resolution criteria: Resolves Yes if OPM announces a federal government shutdown due to appropriations lapse by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count; weather or holiday closures do not.
How Kalshi tracked the 2025 shutdown
The October-November 2025 shutdown ran 43 days (October 1 – November 12), becoming the longest in US history and generating significant trading volume for Kalshi. The dispute centered on ACA premium subsidies set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats demanded an extension but Republicans wanted to address spending separately. Eight Senate Democrats eventually crossed over to break the impasse, but the deal punted on subsidies—a promised December vote failed to extend them. (Full appropriations timeline)
Early forecasts underestimated the standoff. In early October, implied duration sat around 11 days. By late October, “more than 35 days” traded at 67% and “more than 40 days” hovered near 48%. As negotiations repeatedly collapsed, median forecasts pushed past 46 days before eventual resolution at 43. Cumulative volume across shutdown-related contracts reached approximately $47 million over the 43-day period.
Kalshi structured its coverage around duration contracts rather than a simple Yes/No binary. Traders could buy positions on thresholds like “Above 35 days,” “Above 40 days,” and so on. Similar markets continue to exist, though not at the same level as the previous. The biggest market right now is Will there be a US government shutdown on January 31?