Prediction Market Legal Tracker

Went directly to Kalshi and Polymarket rather than through the CFTC, asking them to stop listing contracts that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance. Has since pressed the CFTC for a minimum trading age of 21, restrictions on player props and officiating contracts, and cross-platform lists of barred individuals.

Argues leagues are best positioned to identify which markets pose outsized integrity risk, and asks the CFTC to require exchanges to block athletes, officials and team personnel using league-supplied lists, plus know-your-customer rules so sports contracts cannot be traded anonymously.

Asks the CFTC for an interim suspension of college contracts, arguing they resemble unregulated wagering without age limits, advertising rules, integrity monitoring or prop restrictions. Cites more than 1,500 gambling-related abusive messages to student-athletes since 2024, a criminal investigation touching 17 schools and roughly 40 athletes, and roughly $2 billion in prediction market volume around the 2026 tournaments that it has no mechanism to police.

Focuses on harassment rather than legality, reporting that members and their families face increased threatening and abusive behavior from gamblers. Asks for anti-harassment measures and restrictions on contracts tied to individual athletes.

Signed the first agreement of its kind between a sports league and the CFTC, committing both sides to share integrity information and meet regularly on markets that could be easy to manipulate. Commissioner Rob Manfred framed it as setting clear boundaries while keeping fan engagement. In its July rulemaking comment MLB argued the framework should also cover contracts that do not settle on what happens in a game, naming markets on an athlete’s personal affairs, team personnel decisions and press conference remarks.

States that consumer protections and public health safeguards have not kept pace with the behavioral risks these products create, and asks operators to promote the National Problem Gambling Helpline prominently and continuously.

Describes prediction markets as a new form of gambling under a different label, and warns of harm to sports and lottery integrity, responsible gaming programs, public benefit funding and law enforcement efforts on tax evasion and money laundering. Cites a World Lottery Association paper calling the products unlicensed betting by another name.

Argues most of these contracts are unlawful under the CEA, that the CFTC is not equipped to police nationwide gambling, and that the 2018 Supreme Court decision left sports betting to the states rather than to a federal derivatives regulator.

Backs the CFTC’s contract-by-contract review and its distinction between mainstream and micro markets, and argues regulated exchanges are preferable to offshore platforms. Chief executive Tarek Mansour has gone further in public, saying markets on individual plays are harder to police for integrity and that he was surprised states permitted them for as long as they did, and that federal review lets a problem market be stopped once rather than in forty separate states.