The 98th Academy Awards kick off tonight at 7:00 p.m. EDT, and Kalshi has Michael B. Jordan sitting at 60% to win Best Actor for Sinners. If you’re looking for somewhere to trade on tonight’s Oscars, Kalshi is still giving away $10 free after the first $10 in trades to users who sign up with the Kalshi promo code DEFI.
The prediction market has multiple categories to trade on, though Best Actor is the most popular with more than $17 million at time of publishing.
- Kalshi promo code: DEFI
- Bonus amount: Get $10 in site credit for the Oscars
- Qualifying requirement: $10 in trades within 90 days
- Available in: All 50 states (sports market restrictions apply in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, OH)
What the Kalshi promo code gets you
The DEFI bonus is a $10 credit issued after you complete $10 in total contract trades. This means the money does not land in your account at signup; you earn it by trading. Awards markets like the Oscars count toward the qualifying threshold, which makes tonight a reasonable time to activate the offer if you have been sitting on the fence.
How to get the trade $10, get $10 promo for tonight’s ceremony
- Visit kalshi.com and create a new account. This promo is for new users only. Existing accounts are not eligible.
- Enter promo code DEFI during registration. The code cannot be added after signup.
- Place $10 in trades across any combination of open markets within 90 days. The $10 credit posts automatically once the threshold is met.
Standard identity verification applies: name, address, phone number, and the last four digits of your Social Security number. Kalshi accepts debit cards, Apple Pay, Google Pay, wire transfer, and crypto deposits. PayPal and Venmo are not supported.
Best Actor market odds for the 2026 Oscars
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony starts at 7:00 p.m. EDT tonight, and the Best Actor market on Kalshi reflects a race that has been building toward one outcome for weeks. Michael B. Jordan plays dual roles as twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners — a 1930s Mississippi Delta supernatural horror drama that earned a record 16 Oscar nominations, the most of any film in Academy history. Jordan won Best Actor at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) on March 1, and Sinners swept the ensemble prize the same night. The Actor Awards are voted on by SAG-AFTRA members, who make up the Academy’s largest branch — making Jordan’s win there the clearest signal of industry-wide support heading into tonight.
| Candidate | Film | Implied Probability | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael B. Jordan | Sinners | 60% | -150 |
| Timothée Chalamet | Marty Supreme | 32% | +213 |
| Wagner Moura | The Secret Agent | 5% | +1900 |
Jordan’s contract is currently up 12 points, while Chalamet is down 11. At -150, Jordan is priced as a pretty close favorite with Chalamet slightly behind at +213.
Wagner Moura’s 5% probability has not moved in over a week — the market settled its view on The Secret Agent and has not revisited it. At +1900, the contract is priced as a long shot.
How to trade Best Actor on Kalshi
Jordan, Chalamet, and Moura each have their own Yes/No contract. If you think Jordan will win tonight, you buy Yes at the current ask price of $0.60. Each contract pays out $1.00 if it resolves in your favor, so a $60 trade — 100 contracts at $0.60 each — returns $100 if Jordan wins, a profit of $40. If he loses, the contracts settle at $0 and you are out the $60.
The same logic works in reverse on the No side. Buying No on Jordan at $0.41 means you collect $1.00 per contract if anyone other than Jordan wins. One hundred No contracts costs $41 and returns $100 — a $59 profit — if Chalamet or Moura takes the award.
Contracts can be bought and sold before the ceremony concludes, so if Jordan’s price moves from $0.60 to $0.75 after the show begins, you can sell your Yes contracts early and pocket the difference without waiting for the final result.
Other Kalshi Oscars markets
Best Actor is the most liquid individual award market, but Kalshi is running contracts across the full ceremony. Best Picture has cleared $14 million in volume this week alone, making it one of the largest entertainment markets in the platform’s history. Best Actress, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay markets are all active with meaningful liquidity ahead of the 7:00 p.m. EDT start.
For traders using the promo credit tonight: awards markets settle within hours of the ceremony’s conclusion, which means the $10 credit — once earned — could potentially be deployed and resolved before midnight.
Terms and conditions
The DEFI code must be entered at the time of account creation. The 90-day trading window begins at the moment of signup, not at first deposit.
The $10 bonus is site credit, not withdrawable cash. It functions like a free-play balance: any winnings generated from trading the credit are withdrawable, but the credit itself cannot be transferred or cashed out directly.
Kalshi is available in all 50 states and offers Oscars markets for:
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Supporting Actor
