Prediction markets tracked the rise of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory. Now, they’re seemingly putting one of his campaign dreams into action. In a strange twist, both Kalshi and Polymarket have opened “free” grocery stores in New York City.
In a strange twist, both Kalshi and Polymarket have opened “free” grocery stores in New York City, while Gemini made an attempt to pay people to get out of the Kalshi line. The timing is certainly interesting — these grocery giveaways launched within hours of New York Attorney General Letitia James issuing a consumer alert warning about the risks of prediction markets.
Was this some sort of coordinated effort to show a united front on community involvement from the nation’s biggest names in prediction markets? Or maybe just another Kalshi-Polymarket spat played out in a major PR stunt? Either way, the prediction market grocery wars got a lot of eyeballs—and publicity—at a moment when the industry faces mounting regulatory scrutiny in the Empire State.
Prediction market sweeps: Dueling free grocery initiatives
“F it. Free groceries for everyone,” Kalshi announced on Monday (Feb. 2), sharing its partnership with West Side Market in Manhattan. The platform announced a $50 grocery giveaway to those who RSVP’d and arrived at the store between 12pm and 3pm.
Kalshi’s founder and CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the launch on LinkedIn. “The winter has been cold and difficult for many. We hope this helps a little. New York has given Kalshi so much. It’s only fair for Kalshi to give to New York,” he wrote.
A day later, he shared a Fox 5 news clip of happy shoppers. “Thousands have already picked up their free Kalshi groceries!” he wrote. “We are being told we’ve already inspired other companies to keep up the initiative. I hope this becomes a trend!”
The “other companies” reference might have been some subtle shade toward Polymarket, as the same day Kalshi and West Side Market held their promotion, Polymarket announced that “The Polymarket” was coming.
“New York’s first free grocery store,” Polymarket announced on social media. According to its post, Polymarket “signed the lease” and donated $1 million to Food Bank for NYC, “an organization that changes how our city responds to hunger” and fights food insecurity across all five boroughs.
“Their mission is simple & inspirational: empower every New Yorker to achieve food security for good,” read the LinkedIn announcement. “The Polymarket is fully stocked. No purchase required. We’re open to all New Yorkers. A real, physical investment in our community.”
Polymarket’s free market grand opening is scheduled for Feb. 12 at noon ET. “Free groceries. Free markets. Built for the people who power New York. We’ll see you at The Polymarket’s grand opening next week. We love you, New York City.”
The “pop-up grocery store” will run for five days in the city, according to Business Insider. The proposed market’s address is currently unknown.
“The activation is the result of months of planning—from securing permits and building out a dedicated retail space to coordinating logistics and nonprofit partnerships—and represents a direct investment in the city where Polymarket was founded and scaled,” the company said in a press release.
Gemini’s media stunt to pay people $100 to get out of the Kalshi line is gross.
Paying people $100 to leave the Kalshi market line. pic.twitter.com/6KXlzjzRql
— Gemini (@Gemini) February 3, 2026
The regulatory storm brewing in New York
The grocery giveaways come at a critical moment for prediction markets in New York. Within just the past few months, the industry has faced an intensifying regulatory crackdown:
Attorney General issues warning
On the same day Kalshi launched its grocery promotion, Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer alert warning New Yorkers about prediction markets ahead of Super Bowl LX.
“Ahead of the Super Bowl, New Yorkers need to know the significant risks with unregulated prediction markets,” said James in her statement. “It’s crystal clear: so-called prediction markets do not have the same consumer protections as regulated platforms. I urge all New Yorkers to be cautious of these platforms to protect their money.”
James didn’t stop at consumer warnings. She also put the industry on notice: “I’m also warning the prediction market industry that unlicensed sports wagering violates New York’s laws and could face civil and criminal liability.”
The Coalition for Prediction Markets responded on X, noting that CFTC-regulated platforms have “many of the guardrails the AG outlines – a ban on insider trading, self-exclusion, and responsible trading guidelines. We all want the same thing: safe, fair, and legitimate products.”
Kalshi sues New York Gaming Commission
The grocery giveaway also follows Kalshi’s ongoing legal battle with the Empire State. In late October 2025, the New York State Gaming Commission sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter, demanding that the company “cease and desist immediately from illegally operating, advertising, promoting, administering, managing, or otherwise making available sports wagering and/or a mobile sports wagering platform in New York.”
Kalshi responded by filing a federal lawsuit against the Gaming Commission just days later, arguing that only the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction over its federally regulated exchange — not state gaming regulators.
New York joins a growing list of states that have issued cease-and-desist orders to prediction markets, including Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Arizona, Montana, and Ohio.
The ORACLE Act looms
Perhaps the biggest threat to prediction markets in New York is Assembly Bill A9251, known as the ORACLE Act (Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events).
Introduced by Assemblymember Clyde Vanel on November 7, 2025, and referred to the Assembly Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection, the bill seeks to categorize prediction market contracts as “unlicensed gambling” and would impose civil fines of up to $50,000 for persistent violations — escalating to $1 million per day for platforms that continue to offer contracts on “sensitive” categories like political outcomes, athletic events, catastrophic occurrences, death-related contracts, and securities price movements.
The ORACLE Act would also raise the age requirement from 18 to 21 (matching New York sportsbooks), prohibit traders from funding accounts with credit cards, and require responsible gaming features like self-exclusion options and deposit limits.
Vanel told DeFi Rate in January: “We’re very concerned that investment activities are being meshed and commingled with what we think is wagering activity.”
New OG prediction exchange steers clear of New York
The regulatory uncertainty isn’t lost on new market entrants. When Crypto.com launched its standalone prediction market platform OG this week, it notably excluded one state from its 49-state rollout: New York. According to OG’s website, the platform operates in “49 states plus Washington D.C.” with “New York excluded due to state regulatory requirements.”
The main Crypto.com exchange also restricts customers from New York.
Planting a flag in New York
Despite the regulatory headwinds, both Polymarket and Kalshi have been aggressively building their New York presence. Both exchanges are also headquartered in New York City.
Mamdani’s mayoral race drew millions in trading volume across the two platforms and served as another key moment for mainstream integration and awareness of prediction markets. Back in October, Polymarket landed a key backer with New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) making a strategic investment of up to $2 billion.
Polymarket also became the Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Rangers on Jan. 8, a deal with Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. that will see Polymarket branding featured throughout Rangers games at MSG.
“This is a landmark partnership for the Rangers in this new and exciting category, and Polymarket is the perfect fit as one of the most reliable and forward-thinking prediction market operators,” said Jamaal Lesane, Chief Operating Officer of MSG Sports.
And Polymarket recently signed a partnership with Dow Jones, bringing prediction market data to the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. Needless to say, both exchanges have strong New York roots.
Prediction markets launch “zodegas”?
One of Mayor Mamdani’s signature campaign platforms was tackling affordability and food shortages by establishing city-run grocery stores. His plan, which he said would cost $60 million, would place at least one store in each borough, focusing on areas without full-service supermarkets, according to CBS News.
With the city covering rent and property taxes, the stores wouldn’t need to focus on profit and could pass the savings on to residents.
There is some resistance from billionaire private supermarket magnates and council members who are concerned that a city-run grocery store could harm local delis and bodegas. But to those who do not live in New York City, there are certain items you just can’t get at a bodega.
Interestingly, Kalshi’s market on whether “New York City [will] open a city-owned grocery store before 2028” was trading at $0.68, with just $22k in volume.
So, what’s the point?
So what is the point of all of this? Kalshi and Polymarket’s grocery giveaways are, in essence, publicity stunts — but they’re strategically timed publicity stunts.
These giveaways are methods of generating goodwill, that intangible asset that helps a business, brand, and company when courting customers — and perhaps regulators. Goodwill is vital to a company’s growth, especially when attracting new demographics and navigating hostile regulatory environments.
And that’s what’s happening: prediction markets are becoming more mainstream while simultaneously facing their biggest regulatory challenges. At the federal level, new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has signaled a friendlier approach, directing agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would have banned prediction trades on sports and politics. But at the state level, particularly in New York, the picture is more complicated.
These companies are appealing to customers who may never have considered using a prediction market while also demonstrating community investment in a state where regulators have put them on notice. The Rangers partnership, the NYSE/ICE and Dow Jones deal, and now the grocery giveaways all help normalize prediction markets as legitimate participants in New York’s civic and commercial life.
Polymarket and Kalshi decided to invest in their future, and some New Yorkers got some free food. Win-win? We’ll have to wait and see how regulators respond.
Who says there’s no such thing as a free lunch anymore?
