The UFC heads to the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, for a high-stakes lightweight clash on Saturday, with positioning in the 155-pound division on the line as Rafael Fiziev takes on Manuel Torres.
The main card kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Kalshi odds have the lightweight main event as a near dead heat heading into the showdown. New Kalshi users can use promo code RATE to claim a $10 trading bonus for the 2026 Fiziev vs. Torres fight.
How to claim the Kalshi $10 bonus for UFC Fight Night
Enter the promo code RATE when creating a new Kalshi account to claim a $10 trading bonus for UFC markets. Here are the steps to follow to sign up and claim the bonus.
- Download the Kalshi app: Install the free Kalshi app for your iOS or Android device and begin the registration process. You can also visit the website and click on the Sign Up button.
- Enter the promo code RATE: Enter the Kalshi promo code RATE when prompted during the sign-up process.
- Verify your identity. You will need a valid driver’s license or passport to verify your identity.
- Fund your account: Deposit and trade $10 on any market using one of the accepted payment options, including a bank account, debit cards, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- Place your first trade. Review the market rules and make your first trade on UFC Fight Night or any other UFC market. Kalshi will credit your account with the $10 bonus after the market settles.
Check out our Kalshi promo code guide for the full terms and conditions.
UFC Fight Night odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres: Fiziev wins | 50% | +100 |
| Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira: Magomedov wins | 76% | -317 |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo: Sadykhov wins | 64% | -178 |
| Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson: Almabayev wins | 71% | -245 |
| Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira | 70% | -233 |
| Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk | 50% | +100 |
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Fiziev vs. Torres preview
The lightweight division is an unforgiving shark tank, and Saturday’s main event in Baku is a good example of how fortunes can change in a heartbeat. Rafael Fiziev (13-5) was once seen as the inevitable future of the 155-pound weight class, but the 33-year-old striking phenom now finds himself with his back against the wall after losing four of his last five fights. A homecoming in Azerbaijan gives him a much-needed chance for redemption, but the UFC matchmakers haven’t given him a layup. Across the Octagon is Manuel Torres (17-3), a rising Mexican slugger who has cut a frightening path up the ladder. Torres is on an absurd streak of first-round finishes dating back to 2018, bringing an unprecedented aggression that makes him one of the most dangerous wildcards on the roster.
Style-wise, you have a clash of technical brilliance vs. unbridled power that is simply phenomenal. Torres will immediately test Fiziev’s elite Muay Thai and lightning-fast combinations, pushing a relentless, kill-or-be-killed pace from the opening bell. If Fiziev can weather the early storm and get Torres into later rounds and drag him into deep waters the Mexican hasn’t navigated in years, the veteran should theoretically take over. But with Torres’ resume and Fiziev’s recent struggles, Kalshi traders are preparing for a violent, quick resolution. If you think Fiziev’s veteran savvy will win, his price to win is trading at a 50¢, making his battle with Torres (50% chance) a coin flip.
Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira preview
The co-main event in Baku is going to be an absolute fireworks show as two of the most creative and entertaining strikers in the middleweight division go toe to toe. Sharabutdin “Shara Bullet” Magomedov (16-1) is heading to the Octagon with a clear home-region advantage, looking to put on a show close to his Dagestan roots. Magomedov, who is known for his pressure and elite kicking game, bounced back with a solid decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault recently. Across from him is the human highlight reel, Michel Pereira (32-14). Pereira brings his usual athleticism, backflips, and flying knees, and is coming off a gritty win over Zachary Reese, setting up a highly anticipated fight between two athletes who don’t put on a boring show.
This is a style war between pace and technical discipline versus early chaos. Magomedov is a methodical, high-volume striker who is good at range and breaks down opponents systematically with heavy kicks and constant forward pressure. The best path to victory for Pereira is to bring Magomedov into unpredictable wild exchanges or opportunistic grappling early, as the Brazilian has historically struggled to maintain his explosive output over three full rounds. If Magomedov gets through the early storm, his better cardio and cleaner technique should allow him to take control. Magomedov is the heavy favorite on Kalshi. His shares to win are trading at a 76¢ ask price (76% chance) that reflects his clear technical edge.
The rest of the UFC Fight Night card
The remainder of the Baku main card is filled with rising contenders and established veterans looking to make a statement before the lightweight and middleweight fireworks close out the show. Knockout artist Ikram Aliskerov returns to action in a crucial middleweight contest against the heavy-handed Brunno Ferreira. Flyweight action will see No. 9-ranked Asu Almabayev defend his spot in the top 10 against the always game Charles Johnson. The featured bout on the main card will see local hero Nazim Sadykhov try to win over the crowd against the rising Brazilian prospect Matheus Camilo in what is sure to be a fast-paced lightweight contest.
If you want to see every second of the action, make sure to set your alarms early. The preliminary card kicks off at 9 a.m. ET with some intriguing matchups, including Nursultan Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev and a bantamweight scrap between Bekzat Almakhan and Jean Matsumoto. The main card will start at 12 p.m. ET.
Why trade UFC Fight Night on Kalshi
Trading UFC action on a prediction market like Kalshi is a fundamentally different and potentially more profitable experience than trading on a traditional sportsbook. You are trading yes/no contracts directly with other users on a regulated exchange, where prices reflect real-time implied probabilities, rather than making a fixed bet against the house and getting a built-in vig. The big advantage for fight fans is the fast-moving live trading environment, so you don’t get stuck in your first position.
Buy shares of a fighter before the fight. If they dominate the first round and the share price spikes, you can sell your contracts mid-fight to lock in a profit before the final bell. It offers a control and risk management experience like no other. Now is a good time to test the waters. Sign up and fund your account with the Kalshi promo code RATE to get $10 in trading bonuses to use on Fiziev, Torres, or any other market on tonight’s card.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
