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AFC Champion Odds and Predictions

LIVE

Updated 18 minutes ago · 2:29 PM PST

Who will win conference championship? New England leads prediction market odds at 28.9% (+247), followed by Buffalo at 26.9% (+271) and Denver at 25.4% (+294). Divisional round games on January 18-19 will determine whether these prices hold or collapse. 24-hour volume: $74.6K ($55.5K Kalshi, $19.1K Polymarket, {{event.volume_gemini_usd_compact}} Gemini). This tracker aggregates live pricing across prediction markets to show consensus probabilities, updated hourly with arbitrage opportunities. The AFC Championship kicks off Sunday, January 25 at 3:00 PM ET on CBS.

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Largest Spread

-0.27%

Buffalo

Consensus Leader

28.9%

New England

24H Volume (Share)

$74.6K

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

New England

Vol $15.1K Spread 1.0%

Agg 28.9%

↑ +0.3%

G 29.5%

P 29.3%

K 28.5%

Gemini 29.5%

Vol $5 28–31¢

Polymarket 29.3%

Vol $6.8K 28.7–29.9¢

Kalshi 28.5%

Vol $8.3K 28–29¢

Buffalo

Vol $13.8K Spread 1.5%

Agg 26.9%

↑ +0.4%

K 27.5%

G 27.5%

P 26.0%

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $8.5K 27–28¢

Gemini 27.5%

Vol $10 26–29¢

Polymarket 26.0%

Vol $5.4K 25–27¢

Denver

Vol $38.6K Spread 1.5%

Agg 25.4%

— +0.0%

G 26.0%

K 25.5%

P 24.5%

Gemini 26.0%

Vol $17 24–28¢

Kalshi 25.5%

Vol $35.1K 25–26¢

Polymarket 24.5%

Vol $3.5K 24–25¢

Houston

Vol $7.1K Spread 1.0%

Agg 19.9%

↓ -0.5%

G 20.5%

P 20.3%

K 19.5%

Gemini 20.5%

Vol $0 19–22¢

Polymarket 20.3%

Vol $3.4K 20–20.5¢

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $3.6K 19–20¢

Pittsburgh

Vol $0 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

LAC

Los Angeles C

Vol $0 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Jacksonville

Vol $0 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Baltimore

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
NE New England	28.9% ↑ +0.3%	1.0%	$15.1K	Kalshi 28.5% 28–29¢ Vol $8.3K	Polymarket 29.3% 28.7–29.9¢ Vol $6.8K	Gemini 29.5% 28–31¢ Vol $5
BU Buffalo	26.9% ↑ +0.4%	1.5%	$13.8K	Kalshi 27.5% 27–28¢ Vol $8.5K	Polymarket 26.0% 25–27¢ Vol $5.4K	Gemini 27.5% 26–29¢ Vol $10
DE Denver	25.4% — +0.0%	1.5%	$38.6K	Kalshi 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $35.1K	Polymarket 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $3.5K	Gemini 26.0% 24–28¢ Vol $17
HO Houston	19.9% ↓ -0.5%	1.0%	$7.1K	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 20.3% 20–20.5¢ Vol $3.4K	Gemini 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $0
PI Pittsburgh	0.0% — +0.0%	0.0%	$0	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
LAC Los Angeles C	0.0% — +0.0%	0.0%	$0	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
JA Jacksonville	0.0% — +0.0%	0.0%	$0	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
BA Baltimore	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
BU Buffalo	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 27¢	Sell @ K 27¢	+0.00%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DE Denver	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 25¢	Sell @ K 25¢	+0.00%	-0.25%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HO Houston	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 20¢	Sell @ P 20¢	+0.00%	-0.20%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
PI Pittsburgh	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LAC Los Angeles C	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JA Jacksonville	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NE New England	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 29¢	Sell @ P 28.7¢	-0.30%	-0.59%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
NE New England	PI Pittsburgh	Polymarket	A 29.30%	B 0.00%	+29.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
NE New England	LAC Los Angeles C	Polymarket	A 29.30%	B 0.00%	+29.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
NE New England	JA Jacksonville	Polymarket	A 29.30%	B 0.00%	+29.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
NE New England	PI Pittsburgh	Kalshi	A 28.50%	B 0.00%	+28.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
NE New England	LAC Los Angeles C	Kalshi	A 28.50%	B 0.00%	+28.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
NE New England	JA Jacksonville	Kalshi	A 28.50%	B 0.00%	+28.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
NE New England	BA Baltimore	Kalshi	A 28.50%	B 0.00%	+28.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
BU Buffalo	PI Pittsburgh	Kalshi	A 27.50%	B 0.00%	+27.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
BU Buffalo	LAC Los Angeles C	Kalshi	A 27.50%	B 0.00%	+27.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
BU Buffalo	JA Jacksonville	Kalshi	A 27.50%	B 0.00%	+27.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
BU Buffalo	BA Baltimore	Kalshi	A 27.50%	B 0.00%	+27.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
BU Buffalo	PI Pittsburgh	Polymarket	A 26.00%	B 0.00%	+26.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
BU Buffalo	LAC Los Angeles C	Polymarket	A 26.00%	B 0.00%	+26.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
BU Buffalo	JA Jacksonville	Polymarket	A 26.00%	B 0.00%	+26.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DE Denver	PI Pittsburgh	Kalshi	A 25.50%	B 0.00%	+25.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DE Denver	LAC Los Angeles C	Kalshi	A 25.50%	B 0.00%	+25.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DE Denver	JA Jacksonville	Kalshi	A 25.50%	B 0.00%	+25.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DE Denver	BA Baltimore	Kalshi	A 25.50%	B 0.00%	+25.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DE Denver	PI Pittsburgh	Polymarket	A 24.50%	B 0.00%	+24.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DE Denver	LAC Los Angeles C	Polymarket	A 24.50%	B 0.00%	+24.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DE Denver	JA Jacksonville	Polymarket	A 24.50%	B 0.00%	+24.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
HO Houston	PI Pittsburgh	Polymarket	A 20.25%	B 0.00%	+20.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
HO Houston	LAC Los Angeles C	Polymarket	A 20.25%	B 0.00%	+20.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
HO Houston	JA Jacksonville	Polymarket	A 20.25%	B 0.00%	+20.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
HO Houston	PI Pittsburgh	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 0.00%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
HO Houston	LAC Los Angeles C	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 0.00%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
HO Houston	JA Jacksonville	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 0.00%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
HO Houston	BA Baltimore	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 0.00%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
NE New England	HO Houston	Polymarket	A 29.30%	B 20.25%	+9.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
NE New England	HO Houston	Gemini	A 29.50%	B 20.50%	+9.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.